Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Reb** 2011-12-26, 2:01 am

ahh the elusive fantasy storm lol

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-26, 8:19 am

It's been hard to even scrape up a fantasy storm lately heh. Even my buddy the dgex has been all emo.

by **Toot** 2011-12-26, 8:17 pm

People are finally buying into the colder pattern. Several WFO's discussed it in todays' AFD's. I wonder if Don Sutherland is still ridng the warm train evl

Even the AO/NAO indices are showing a clear trend downward into colder readings in the extended range

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Gens_nao_12

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Gens_nao_12

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Gens_ao_12

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 12:50 am

I haven't looked at the 00z GFS yet but 12z refused to buy into this. It had zonal flow at best, no PNA ridge. 850s approaching 10c during some of the periods, which would put highs at the surface close to 60.

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-27, 1:25 am

Yea, John I see some people showing models with a big ridge in the west and a deep trough over us and then see some models that show a somewhat zonal flow with a very slight ridge in the west. Really think how this turns out to be a flip of a coin type thing. We will have winter (were it gets colder and more chances of snow) but will we have anything more then that all depends on what model comes to be. Here is a image from a late thread that I think updated itself but idk the date of this picture but this is a zonal outlook...
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Ixsill

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Ixsill

That is what we dont want for winter.

by **Reb** 2011-12-27, 1:36 am

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 2:11 am

Yuck pretty much sums up the 00z GFS. Heck, at one point it has 850s above 10c up into South Dakota and Iowa in the long range.

In the extended it even melts the snow cover off pretty much most of the lower 48 outside the Northern New England areas, upper Great Lakes back to the Northern half of Minnesota and North Dakota and the high Rocky mountains.

For all of basically South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and a good portion of Colorado, North Dakota and Wyoming to be completely snowless in January is extremely uncommon.

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-27, 2:33 am

Again I really wouldn't even track the weather for the next week. It's really any ones guess what happens. And personally I'm actually thinking that we will end up with the colder side and a trough in the east. I just want everyone to know that all the models isn't saying cold and snow.(like they ever really do??)(lol) Also.. Again idk the date to that picture I posted so don't think its correct and up to date cause it might not be. Just fit a good example of what we don't want.

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 6:17 am

Some hope from the HPC. They don't seem to pay much attention to the GFS really.

SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST
OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY
SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE
TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A
SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP
CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING
TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A
BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A
40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS
SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

by Vanster67 2011-12-27, 7:35 am

Major differences with the GFS and the Euro. Whats up with that?? The Euro looks nice, and the GFS is facepalm

. Are they usually so opposite. So far this season, which would seem to have the better track record so far. ( Not that there has been much to compare) scared

Any thoughts?

by **jmundie** 2011-12-27, 8:13 am

The gfs ensembles have several members that support the euro solution. Neither model has been exceptional this year, but I'm inclined to believe the gfs will come around to the euro solution. My main concern is that the trough will be further east and we won't see any snow.

by **Toot** 2011-12-27, 9:11 am

For patterns in the extended one will need to look at ensembles not operational models

There is no reason not to believe the huge PNA ridge when the ensembles have been agreeing on it for almost a week as I have been posting about them here quite regularly and as posted above..even the indices are now starting to show the colder look. The colder pattern seems pretty much a given now. One model cannot be trusted for pinning down changes in the pattern several days out...you have to look at several different models and then you get an idea of whats coming and thats a impressive ridge out west with signifigant trough in the east

Pretty strong agreement for much colder here

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 F216

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 F216

Im with Mundie here...the colder pattern of the tall PNA ridge seems to be what models are agreeing on...its where the trough placement is and other smaller scale details that will dictate if we get much snow with this colder pattern.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-27, 11:35 am

Surprised no one has posted the 8-10 day 00z Euro. I was a bit shocked to see it this morning. What both models show is increasing heights near the pole. The Euro also shows increasing heights over the tip of Greenland. If we could just get that subtropical high around the Azores to calm down a bit we would be in business with the NAO.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Test810

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 3:58 pm

Strangely the HPC seems to be betting it all on the Euro, but none of the local forecast offices are and are generally going with the GFS zonal type solution.

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 4:34 pm

HPC keeps saying significant snow threat from the Mid-South to the Carolinas. But the Euro pretty much shows very light snows of less than an inch at best across Tennessee but hammers the NC/VA area with probably 6-10 inches.

GFS shows a cold front blowing out to see pretty much.

Canadian shows something similar to the Euro.

by **jazzy** 2011-12-27, 4:37 pm

Is it true that its a good thing not to be in the bullseye for the most snow this far out because it will change? Maybe for the better.

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 4:43 pm

Actually read the map wrong, looks like 2-4 across most of East Tennessee, 4-6 in NE Tennessee, more in the mountains.

Apparently Euro op may the be outlier from it's ens means though.

Honestly everything that is being shown is well east on the GFS but pretty much everything has been verifying well west of where the GFS has been placing it.

A few days ago the GFS had this LP heading across the Carolinas, it went across Middle/West TN.

That tends to happen without blocking, storms cut the lakes when they actually get here instead of taking favorable tracks. Hopefully a big PNA ridge helps out with this one, we'll need it.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-27, 6:39 pm

damn, looking at the gfs from 254 to 276, i swear i wouldnt want anymore snow this winter if that played out... places approaching a foot on that run. damn, what a winter storm that would be.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-27, 6:43 pm

i was meaning 264 to 276

by **Toot** 2011-12-27, 7:44 pm

jazzy wrote:Is it true that its a good thing not to be in the bullseye for the most snow this far out because it will change? Maybe for the better.

To be honest thats more a superstition than it is anything.... but yeah I certainly dont like to be in the bullseye this far out...I guess that makes me superstitious though!! lmao

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-27, 8:30 pm

the key thing here is now, the gfs is coming towards the euro to some degree... fun times may lay ahead by the end of the first week in 2012.

by **jmundie** 2011-12-27, 9:35 pm

I'll take the storm placement at this point. There has been a northwest trend on every storm this year. I believe that's why HPC is mentioning middle tenn.

But also, the euro is showing snow showers in really cold air for our area, leading to a general dusting... Which could end up more than that.

by **Toot** 2011-12-28, 10:17 am

snowdog wrote:Surprised no one has posted the 8-10 day 00z Euro. I was a bit shocked to see it this morning. What both models show is increasing heights near the pole. The Euro also shows increasing heights over the tip of Greenland.

Interesting features snowdog hopefully this is a sign of things getting more favorable

by **Toot** 2011-12-28, 8:19 pm

Hello winter Euro precictions of The AO indice..
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 12zensao

.it is free falling with no sigh of return to postive values if you remember it was record positive which tends to deeely concentrate sub0 temps around pole and now the ao is headed towards negative and will bring record cold all the way to FL...im becoming pumped to a MAJOR Arctic outbreak about the third week in JAN...could rival 85.. all that cold that was bottled up at the north pole region and is about to invade us near mid JAN but the AO was highly positive and now is tanking... NAO blocking will now also setup and be decently negative if data is correct...

Fullblown pattern Change and there will be troffs over the SE at least til FEB..We could REALLY get dumped on Several times in JAN

I think this product will trend much colder Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 610temp.new.small

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 610temp.new.small

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 11 Fred+SanfordBW

by **snowdog** 2011-12-29, 12:19 am

Whoah there big fella, whoah. Lets not get too carried away just yet. I'm as excited as I have been all fall/winter. Finally we have something on the horizon to look forward to. I think the end of the +AO pattern is coming to an end. However, dont get too excited... just yet. There is a tendency for these type of patterns (strong +AO) to re-emerge after a short period of negative. But if, BIG IF, we do get a true pattern change and lock into some blocking, the 2nd half of January and 1st half of Feb. could be something special (for all the reasons you mentioned). Got to temper the enthusiasm right now though. I'm just happy to see some rising heights near the pole in the long term and till then it looks like the PNA will do our dirty work.

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