Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **jmundie** 2012-01-20, 10:08 am

Stovepipe wrote:If Mundie is enthusiastic, I'm enthusiastic!

Hoping we see some modicum of consistency with the GFS for a change.

Keep it tempered. I won't get really excited at least until we get some model consistency, inside of truncation, for the ULL.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-20, 10:17 am

I gotta say that even with the model inconsistency this winter, I've not seen this until now:

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 06zgfsnao

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 06zensnao

Fingers crossed.

by **snowdog** 2012-01-20, 11:06 am

Toot wrote:Snowdog im seeing plenty of NAO blocking on both the 0z and 6z ensembles.But I agree...I liked the negative EPO look and would like to see that modeled again. That said the euro is not budging.

I was looking at the Ens Mean which showed it to be near neutral which more than likely means the ensembles haven't come into agreement yet (this far out I don't expect them too). What I hope to see over the next couple of days is a more pronounced NAO block showing up on the ENS mean which would indicate some good ensemble agreement on it happening.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-20, 12:01 pm

Its all dependent on exactly how this ull is handled, and where the split in the flow in canada occurs. 12z gfs continues to eject the ull, but the timing and strength is different from the last 3 runs, which leads to troughiness a little further east. Plus the alaska vortex comes back at the end of the run.

I'll take what we're looking at and be hopeful. This, to me, is the best look we've seen all winter in the long range.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-20, 12:53 pm

Canadian is really close to awesome for middle and east Tennessee.

I am certainly hoping the timing of the next cold frot can meet with the ull and we get a big storm to start off what appears to be a decent cold pattern.

We'll see why the euro says.

by **ballpark** 2012-01-20, 1:20 pm

Can you put a graph up on the canadian what it shows.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-20, 1:27 pm

i am still not ready to hang my hat on it just yet, been there done that way to many times this winter, to only get let down... we have seen plenty of great stuff in the long term only not to prevail... i hope its finally on to something, but i seriously doubt it... i think we are heading into a situation in february were we may have a one big hit chance, and its either going to be a swing n a miss, or a homerun... just what i am seeing... models just have been to damn inconsistent my friends... no matter what the ops and ensembles been showing.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-20, 1:31 pm

The thing is, I've not really seen much of anything good in terms of actual storms on the models all winter, not even many fantasy storms at hour 384 on the GFS or DGEX snow porn. The stuff we are seeing here the past few days is some of the best so far. Even if it's fantasy it's a welcome change. If I'm looking at it correctly, some of the CMC ensembles are epic for TN.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-20, 1:31 pm

12z canadian
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 F156

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 F162

Temps are crashing on the backside of this, so some of what's shown in the second frame likely falls as snow, but most would not, as its currently being modeled.

I would love to see models trend this direction with a bit more cold. The GFS ensembles have a couple members that depict a similar scenario with much colder temps on the backside, as it seems the gfs is slower with the ejection of the ULL, and allows more time for ridging out west, hence, a colder vort coming in from canada to phase with.

Anyway - on to the Euro. Hopefully its getting the memo about killing the alaskan vortex, at least temporarily.

by Guest 2012-01-20, 1:45 pm

That is all for now.. Smile

by **jmundie** 2012-01-20, 1:55 pm

Stovepipe wrote:The thing is, I've not really seen much of anything good in terms of actual storms on the models all winter, not even many fantasy storms at hour 384 on the GFS or DGEX snow porn. The stuff we are seeing here the past few days is some of the best so far. Even if it's fantasy it's a welcome change. If I'm looking at it correctly, some of the CMC ensembles are epic for TN.

You're right Stove. We haven't had anything to latch onto, even if it ends up busting. In a typical year, we'd almost always have a storm threat in the 8-10 day range, that we'd get to track for a couple days, then it would vanish, sometimes it would show back up, and it might end up being cold rain, but this year, we haven't gotten anything like that. We haven't just missed storms being a bit too far south... there just really haven't been any synoptic storms south of the ohio river (and not a ton north of there either.

This pattern is a last ditch effort. I don't want to be let down again, so I'm not jumping in full force... but to even have 24 hours of op runs showing potential for sustained cold, along with the ensembles being on board for several days now, and even a brief minute the euro weeklies were looking favorable - we just haven't seen this kind of consistent agreement that we may have, not only one storm and brief cold, but a sustained winter patter.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-20, 2:17 pm

Euro op was awesome... if you live in Seattle. For us not so much.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-20, 4:23 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Euro op was awesome... if you live in Seattle. For us not so much.

Its really similar to the 10 day setup on the 0z gfs last night.

Just give it time - I don't trust the euro beyond 4 days right now because of the ULL - its going to want to hold it back longer than it should. The canadian came more in line with the GFS at 12z today with the handling of the ULL next week, ejecting it much sooner.

by **Reb** 2012-01-20, 4:30 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Euro op was awesome... if you live in Seattle. For us not so much.

my brother and his family are in olympia and they are posting tons of pictures of the monster snow storm sauce

by **John1122** 2012-01-20, 4:31 pm

Well one thing is for sure, each model is going to be right. Because at some point over the last few days they've all shown just about every possible solution.

by **ballpark** 2012-01-20, 4:36 pm

It looks like it is going to be wet any way.

by **Toot** 2012-01-20, 8:14 pm

snowdog wrote:
I was looking at the Ens Mean which showed it to be near neutral

That is a negative nao block around greenland

6z ensemble mean
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 F264

by **Toot** 2012-01-20, 8:20 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: no matter what the ops and ensembles been showing.

When the esmeble mean has a negtive NAO for a weeks straight you cant ingore that...thats a trend...that is a consistent trend and to ignore it is just plain bat shit crazy and a dumb meteorolgy pffft

by **Toot** 2012-01-20, 8:23 pm

jmundie wrote:Canadian is really close to awesome for middle and east Tennessee.

I am certainly hoping the timing of the next cold frot can meet with the ull and we get a big storm to start off what appears to be a decent cold pattern.

We'll see why the euro says.

Agreed Mundie that is a pretty god thumpins for mid-east TN

by **Toot** 2012-01-20, 8:25 pm

Stovepipe wrote:The thing is, I've not really seen much of anything good in terms of actual storms on the models all winter, not even many fantasy storms at hour 384 on the GFS or DGEX snow porn. The stuff we are seeing here the past few days is some of the best so far. Even if it's fantasy it's a welcome change. If I'm looking at it correctly, some of the CMC ensembles are epic for TN.

Agree fully stove cold

by **Toot** 2012-01-20, 8:26 pm

Stovepipe wrote:I gotta say that even with the model inconsistency this winter, I've not seen this until now:

Fingers crossed.

Agree fully..the Nao is fixing to tank rock on

by **Toot** 2012-01-20, 9:42 pm

12z ensembles in stark agreement of strong NAO blocking

drool

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 F276

by **Snowmania** 2012-01-21, 12:52 am

This winter is becoming a real disaster...I understand there could be a salvage in february but what fun is a winter of nothing to track but at the very end. What's even more amazing about this winter is that theres been no real close calls, nothing to track but a few weak ULLs. I cant remember the last winter that we have had almost nothing to track going into feb...wow...and thats not cliff diving, thats just looking back at Dec and what's been used up in jan

Tonights 0z is par for the course...cold arriving late followed by a nice warm up...rinse repeat...

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-21, 2:07 am

Snowmania wrote:but what fun is a winter of nothing to track but at the very end.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 29 639_tommy-lee-jones-serious

by **jmundie** 2012-01-21, 10:08 am

Lol - Now the Euro is ejecting the shortwave and then GFS is not.

I think we should start getting a better idea of the solution. Aren't they supposed to send out reconnaissance on the shortwave in the pacific for today's runs? or was that data ingested last night?

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