Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

John1122 wrote:



Someday we'll get another major event like that. 12+ events happen here on average about every 5 years. They are much more rare in Knoxville and the central valley. Though Anderson, Union, and Northern Knox had 15-20 inches in Feb 1996 with similar totals during the blizzard.

Stovepipe wrote:There was certainly one hell of a storm in Jan 96. I was living in Greve Hall at UT at the time and it shut the campus down for at least a day or two. It takes a serious storm to shut down UT campus.

Toot wrote:

John1122 wrote:



Someday we'll get another major event like that. 12+ events happen here on average about every 5 years. They are much more rare in Knoxville and the central valley. Though Anderson, Union, and Northern Knox had 15-20 inches in Feb 1996 with similar totals during the blizzard.

John wasnt the Blizzard of 96 in January?

A low pressure trof extended from the Gulf of Mexico to across East Tennessee. This trof brought large amounts of moisture to the Southern Appalachians while a cold air mass moved in from the northwest. Snowfall amounts across the region ranged from 4 inches in Southeast Tennessee to nearly 24 inches in parts of Middle East Tennessee. Numerous minor traffic accidents were reported though no major accidents.

keithinala wrote:this is my weather porn from 93

Reb wrote:for some reason it feels like all of these 93 and 96 event pics/gifs/talk are in the wrong thread.

Stovepipe wrote:

What happens with the TX cutoff is crucial this run. Who knows if its right, but its a sign (like last few days) that the building heights from Maine to Hudson Bay are going to play on the pattern. By 156 hours the split occurs (its back on). The cutoff develops severe weather in Ms. Al and the 1040 high dams down to NC on Wednesday (no ice, just upper 30s and rain). Then the upper low absorbs just enough cold air to snow in Tenn Valley, which fits whats happend twice. At 168 hours the whole flow is in the midst of change, the Hudson Bay blocking is there, and the PV weakens in Alaska so that nw flow is in course, which is much, much colder scenario, and much sooner than models showed earlier.

There is extremely strong ridging in Hudson Bay, so this means very supressed flow. Usually models don't handle supressed flow well when there is 50/50 low and Baffin Island blocking, so be on the lookout for that upper low to be further south than shown at days 7 through 10 time frame. Who knows if this run is right , trends are important though and the mishandling of the cutoff next week means a lot. Atleast theres no major west coast trough , east ridge this run. It could return next run though. If this run is right, there would eventually be an ice storm in NC and upper SC.

1060 high and a massive arctic outbreak late in the run. Of course lately the GFS has been showing this. If we get a PNA + ridge out west, it will happen. If not, the west gets cold and we get warmer. The critical component is probably the cutoff and the development of the Maine-to-Hudson Bay ridging that shows up in 5 days. Also, this run redvelops the north Alaskan block, this time combined with Greenland ridging, a critical piece missing. That would force cold to encompass most of the US and keep a southern and eastern storm track. Translation: winter storms.