Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

I think I need a smoke after DT's read. That was some good weather reading.

snowdog wrote:I think I need a smoke after DT's read. That was some good weather reading.

Funny too that he almost jumped on board before the 12z GFS/Ensembles said not so fast... try western trough.

I'm just about done with this

You've waited this long Mundie, what's another couple of weeks?

Oh snap, Mundie, I just saw you posted this link on the other forum:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=monthlysnow

I've been looking everywhere for something like that! But, trying to work backwards on that site, I can't seem to pull that up for any other locations. Is that data only available for ohx?

Met GreensboroWx trying to raise spirits over on American:

Ok, people, its only Jan 19th. There's a LONG ways to go....the up and down emotions based on 1 model run, from some of you, are quite amusing

Honestly, looking much beyond 5 days and making a concrete statement is hopeless. Last week's runs were showing very warm temps for the SE in the long term and no relief to the PV south of Alaska. Now, its nearly a 180 and the warm temps have been squashed somewhat. Also, there are positive signs starting to show up. Trying to pinpoint the exact location of the Pacific trough or an eastern Canadian ridge long term is pointless. Look at the BIG picture and notice there are some changes trying to take shape. With the continued storminess and cutoffs there's no telling what can happen, but it could be quite exciting in Feb, IMHO.

We've just reverted back to the standard 2000s climate for the area.

I'm just very glad we got in two very good winters, although I feel sorry for the central valley of East Tennessee, as they kinda got screwed in all of it, especially in 2009-10.

Hopefully this is only a one season blip, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us have several way below average snowfall years in a row. Especially given that a solar maximum should occur during 2012 or 2013. That gives me pause about next winter being particularly good.

On the plus side I guess, average snowfall has fallen so far for Knox that one good storm now puts you at or close to average. It used to take 2-3 events, but that was when the 30 year average was 12 inches in Knox.

Stovepipe wrote:Oh snap, Mundie, I just saw you posted this link on the other forum:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=monthlysnow

I've been looking everywhere for something like that! But, trying to work backwards on that site, I can't seem to pull that up for any other locations. Is that data only available for ohx?

I think its something that OHX put out on their own. I'm sure all the offices have the data. I bet if you called or emailed they'd send it to you.

So - are even ya'll so jaded that no one is yelling about the awesome pattern showing up once the ull passes at 216 on the 18z?

Pure, unadulterated, beauty.

Made a new blog...just bored...however things are looking up in early Feb with much colder.
http://milkandbreadreport.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/boring-winter-so-far-no-change-right-away-but-things-may-change-in-a-couple-of-weeks/

John1122 wrote:We've just reverted back to the standard 2000s climate for the area.

I have serious doubts about that.... those were positive PDO years...we look to be in a negative PDO for quite some time. Historically speaking a negative PDO period (1950's - 1970's) has produced more snow in TN than a positive PDO period (1980's - 2000's). This is probably due to us more likely being in a negative NAO regime during winter while in negative PDO periods. Of the very few PDO regimes that we have history for...they would lead you to believe that a negative PDO teleconnects to a more dominant negative NAO and vice versa.

If history is a guide we should stay in a dominant negative PDO regime til sometime around 2030.... give or take a few years... as this negative PDO regime got going good around 2010.

oh, and things looking up for Tenn...if this pattern is correct

jmundie wrote:So - are even ya'll so jaded that no one is yelling about the awesome pattern showing up once the ull passes at 216 on the 18z?

Pure, unadulterated, beauty.

I seen it....dont know whether to trust it or not as the ensembles also seem to be undecided of where they setup a mean trough when the pattern changes around early Feb. As you noted earlier... the 12z ensembles were mostly out west with that trough but about half of the 18z enesembles came back east

jmundie wrote:So - are even ya'll so jaded that no one is yelling about the awesome pattern showing up once the ull passes at 216 on the 18z?

Pure, unadulterated, beauty.

I honestly just don't have any faith in anything beyond 120 hours right now. Hopefully that's correct but I am not jumping on anything until it's in the process of happening and not 8-10 days away all the time.

2007-2009 was very much like this, always something, but always 10 days away.

Toot wrote:

John1122 wrote:We've just reverted back to the standard 2000s climate for the area.

I have serious doubts about that.... those were positive PDO years...we look to be in a negative PDO for quite some time. Historically speaking a negative PDO period (1950's - 1970's) has produced more snow in TN than a positive PDO period (1980's - 2000's). This is probably due to us more likely being in a negative NAO regime during winter while in negative PDO periods. Of the very few PDO regimes that we have history for...they would lead you to believe that a negative PDO teleconnects to a more dominant negative NAO and vice versa.

If history is a guide we should stay in a dominant negative PDO regime til sometime around 2030.... give or take a few years... as this negative PDO regime got going good around 2010.

We will see how it unfolds, but we did pretty well for snow here in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s were when snow and cold became such a rare thing and our climate in the area basically became what it was 100 miles south of here.

I'm hoping it's a blip, but with a solar max coming on I wouldn't be surprised to see sustained positive AO/NAO set up again next winter. I believe the marked increase in solar activity this fall is a big reason we've been in the AO/NAO pattern we are in now.

John1122 wrote:
We will see how it unfolds, but we did pretty well for snow here in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s were when snow and cold became such a rare thing and our climate in the area basically became what it was 100 miles south of here.

Oh..no doubt we had some great winters in the 80's and 90's (+PDO) but I dont think those two decades were as good as the 50's and 60's (-PDO). What say you?

Just took a quick look at the latest Euro month long forecast that was released today. Now, I'm not as experienced as some people when it comes to interpreting upper air data and patterns and such, but I can read the hell out of some temperature charts...

I would half to count the 77-78-79 as one of the best 3 year for winter. I can't remember the 80s or the 90s being more dominating than them 3 years in a row.

LOL... Stove, join the crowd man. I've been off the cliff since about the beginning of this month. Things just keep looking good like 10 days out, then Boom!! Another false signal here, another false signal there, and you get temps that are actually above average. Before long, people be model watching until Mid March if they keep following the long range model outputs, only to be disappointed once again.

Actually, I don't have much faith in any model past 5 days, much less 30 days. I was just being dramatic. There is still plenty of time for a historic snow storm in Feb or March (or a 2 incher which would make my winter).

Tom23 wrote: Before long, people be model watching until Mid March if they keep following the long range model outputs, only to be disappointed once again.

I wonder if people were watching the models in mid March 1993..If they were im sure they wasn't disappointed

Toot wrote:

Tom23 wrote: Before long, people be model watching until Mid March if they keep following the long range model outputs, only to be disappointed once again.

I wonder if people were watching the models in mid March 1993..If they were im sure they wasn't disappointed:burn:

Toot, that was a once-in-a-lifetime kind of event. Kind of sad that we have to rely on one of those systems (or even a once in 10-20 year kind of system for that matter) to make this a good Winter for us, don't ya think??

Tom23 wrote:

Toot wrote:

Tom23 wrote: Before long, people be model watching until Mid March if they keep following the long range model outputs, only to be disappointed once again.

I wonder if people were watching the models in mid March 1993..If they were im sure they wasn't disappointed:burn:

Toot, that was a once-in-a-lifetime kind of event. Kind of sad that we have to rely on one of those systems (or even a once in 10-20 year kind of system for that matter) to make this a good Winter for us, don't ya think??

I can't speak for anyone else but I personally don't need a March 93 to be perfectly content with this winter. Just give me enough to make a decent snow man, and maybe see a heavy squall or two in the process, that's all I ask.

Tom23 wrote:
Kind of sad that we have to rely on one of those systems (or even a once in 10-20 year kind of system for that matter) to make this a good Winter for us, don't ya think??

You dont know that...and I dont know that... we could get a couple of nice snows in Febuary...thats why people watch models...If you dont want to read any model data thats fine...but dont come in here trying to discourage others from reading models. BTW I read models year round...and secondly there is no such thing as a once in a lifetime kind of event in meteorology. Meteorology dont know or care if you have already seen a historic snowstorm. Thats a very unscientific approach to meteorology

Until I see it change I will believe any potential snow event this year is going to be a quick hitter. Roll in, snow, roll out, melt off within 48 hours.

In the year of the blizzard we had nothing all winter to speak of, then in late February we had a severe event and it snowed about 4 inches a few days later.

Then it was cool in early March but warmed into the 70s 3 days before the blizzard hit.

The rest is history. You can look at the TYS report from that day and it reads "Fog, Snow, Thunderstorm" under the events with 1.11 inches of precip.

Someday we'll get another major event like that. 12+ events happen here on average about every 5 years. They are much more rare in Knoxville and the central valley. Though Anderson, Union, and Northern Knox had 15-20 inches in Feb 1996 with similar totals during the blizzard.

Stovepipe wrote:Just took a quick look at the latest Euro month long forecast that was released today. Now, I'm not as experienced as some people when it comes to interpreting upper air data and patterns and such, but I can read the hell out of some temperature charts...

yeh stove, i feel your pain dude...i got my toes on the edge of the cliff now... but wait, i cant jump, cause i got severe just around the corner... thank god for that... this spring is going to be historic yall, and its going to get started earlier this year... forbes just gave us a 2 to 3 for friday night and sunday on torcon... but i will post more info in the severe section, as needed