Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Most of the time thay come and eat 2times a day.But in the last 3 days thay keep coming back and taking food with them.

Robert:

the cold air comes into the upper South Sunday and jets out Monday, as advertised a while now. There's nothing to keep cold air in here, the flow is so fast. Looking at the global picture at 144, theres a completely zonal flow from Japan to the east coast of the US, so halfway around the world is zonal...very unusual. Something is likely to amplify that won't be seen by the models around this time frame or shortly after.

I've honestly never saw such model madness. It's like Macho Man's ghost is running them. Even the CPC doesn't know what to do with their extended forecasts since every model and every model ensemble shows something different. Their forecast confidence has been 1 or 2 lately.

Even Hitler is ready to cancel winter.

Great pic Homemommy, and awesome vid Stove... those pics keep my spirits up when I know, deep down, that Winter won't be coming this year. Well, and riding down the road for 30 minutes with the window down enjoying the air and wind whipping my hair into a frenzy ain't too bad either lol

Pretty good discussion by DT in his latest update:

http://www.wxrisk.com/

What a god awful nightmare… If you like a winter weather in the eastern U.S.

Stovepipe wrote:Pretty good discussion by DT in his latest update:

http://www.wxrisk.com/

What a god awful nightmare… If you like a winter weather in the eastern U.S.

Well, that was depressing. Can't catch a break, it seems. Still hoping for that elusive inch or two, maybe Mother Nature will at least grant us that.

I need a drink...is it 8 o' clock yet?

Stove, thanks for fixing the link to my pic.

I've been in "hope for that one event with perfect timing" mode for a few weeks now.

Odds are we get it, but it wouldn't be unprecedented for us not to based on the 2007-2009 winters.

I say this with no true knowledge but more of a prophetic tone... I have lived in Southeast TN for over 30 years now and it's rare that I can ever remember a winter that does not have at least a week of sustained cold at some point. With that being said, winter ends in March... We are in January. Actually we are barely a month into winter by the calendar's stand point. We will have cold this winter. Winter gets cold and thats just the way it is. There will be a full week, at least, of some cold air that comes down and stays with us. This feels like MANY winters when I was young and it reached 60 a lot, but there was always that cold time when there was a good chance of snow and everyone talked about it. I do believe in my heart that it will come based on statistics, averages, math, blah blah blah etc. This may be one of those Mid/Late Feb/Early March winters. Most of TN doesn't typically see winters like we did last year and I think we were spoiled and expect it to be like that now. 2010/2011 were not typical years. That is why the average snowfall in my area is 4.5 inches a year and not 12 inches like last year. 2010/2011 were the fluke years unfortunately and we were fortunate to experience them. Anyway.. it will be cold this winter. Don't forget we still have the rest of Jan., all of Feb., and most of march that we call winter.

Good post Butters!

Stovepipe wrote:Even Hitler is ready to cancel winter.

24k PURE GOLD

well after today, i am officially going all out on severe weather mode... i am getting my chasing gear out... count down is on... i am looking for strong lakes cutters and ohio valley runners.

Bruce I have a favor to ask. Sometime when you have some time to spare, would you mind putting together a little guide to severe for newbs? It would be nice to have an explanation of what to look for specifically in the models when trying to identify the severe signals; cape, cin, shear, etc. Bonus points for including example maps and charts.

No rush or anything but I think it would be helpful to a lot of folks and it sounds like we may be tracking this stuff as much or more than winter storms in the coming weeks. Thanks man!

Stovepipe wrote:Bruce I have a favor to ask. Sometime when you have some time to spare, would you mind putting together a little guide to severe for newbs? It would be nice to have an explanation of what to look for specifically in the models when trying to identify the severe signals; cape, cin, shear, etc. Bonus points for including example maps and charts.

No rush or anything but I think it would be helpful to a lot of folks and it sounds like we may be tracking this stuff as much or more than winter storms in the coming weeks. Thanks man!

yes stove, be glad to help bro...

Since there were a few posts a few days ago in regards to Spanish, I give you this ( compliments of Google translate ) if you want to read it in English!

Quoted from Grandpa Nasty (yes, I'm quoting myself)

Yo hve una primera impresión de mediados a fines de febrero, el sureste va a tener una tormenta de nieve estilo clásico del sur que nadie, ni siquiera los modelos, predecir con exactitud. Veo claramente la perfecta de 6 pulgadas, además de las nevadas pesadas goodm tipo, mojado descuidado que hace que el sonido crujiente bajo sus pies al caminar alrededor de ella. Preveo árboles caídos, cables eléctricos caídos y cortes de gran poder, Theroads debe estar bien afte 24 horas debido a la temperatura rondará en 33,2 grados. Esto es Goig a suceder y que será una cosa de la belleza!

Nasty

The euro actually kept the huge positive tilted trough in the extended. Its a strange but interesting look. At least its different than anything I have seen modeled so far this winter.

And more pron from the CMC

Well that is three models showing something interesting on the horizon. Maybe we can turn this boat around.

Even Don Sutherland is optimistic, the world must be coming to an end.

Don:

I agree. The initial look at the February 8-15 timeframe overall is providing me with more cold scenarios for the East than warm ones. I'll post my thoughts for that period on Saturday or Sunday. But it is a welcome change to see data hinting at a cold outcome. There remains some significant uncertainty with respect to the AO, so nothing is cast in stone at present. The month as a whole still looks warmer than normal.

finally looking interesting as we gt into february, got to love the huge pna ridge the euro has been showing last couple of runs, and its been more agressive with the cold air... gfs isnt to bad lately, but a little less bullish with the cold... not quite showing a nice blocking signature as the euro has been showing... on a side note... 2 years ago today, i was enjoying a nice 9 inch snowfall, with that nice 995 mb low sliding along the gulf coast.

I'm trying to figure this out. This is the 12z GFS AO forecast on Huffman's site.



The biggest problem with this image is...the AO is currently strongly negative. Not sure what kind of crack the GFS is smoking to initialize that way on that run, or if it's some issue with his software.

John1122 wrote:I'm trying to figure this out. This is the 12z GFS AO forecast on Huffman's site.


The biggest problem with this image is...the AO is currently strongly negative. Not sure what kind of crack the GFS is smoking to initialize that way on that run, or if it's some issue with his software.

John...that looks like a bad initialization to me...Huffmans indices are usually pretty close...Ive also noticed that Ryan Maue's (NAO past and curent value graph) doesnt match up to the CPC's..I know there is a couple different ways the NAO is measured...so im not sure about that one either.

Some of Alan's scripts have been a little wonky the past few weeks. Not sure if that is the culprit here or not but it wouldn't surprise me.

Toot wrote:

John1122 wrote:I'm trying to figure this out. This is the 12z GFS AO forecast on Huffman's site.


The biggest problem with this image is...the AO is currently strongly negative. Not sure what kind of crack the GFS is smoking to initialize that way on that run, or if it's some issue with his software.

John...that looks like a bad initialization to me...Huffmans indices are usually pretty close...Ive also noticed that Ryan Maue's (NAO past and curent value graph) doesnt match up to the CPC's..I know there is a couple different ways the NAO is measured...so im not sure about that one either.

The GFS ens also initialize with a strongly positive AO on his site. The Euro is the only one who initializes properly there.