Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 5:21 pm

Stovepipe wrote:It's funny, taking a stroll through other forums, it becomes obvious just how emo weather nerds are (myself included). Whenever there is a positive swing in models for a run or two everybody is hyped up, then one bad run (12z) and winter is cancelled. If you listen carefully you can actually hear the sound of all the browser tabs being closed in disgust. But you can bet your bottom dollar that if 0z shows a storm they will all be back hitting F5 and yammering about past winters where Feb and March turned cold and snowy. Rinse repeat.

Of course we'll hit the point of no return before long and the cliff divers won't have an opportunity to climb back up. But we have to admit if we are honest with ourselves, that at this point in late January, there is still plenty of time for snow in the south this winter. This roller coaster is going to keep going for another solid month, maybe more. One minute people will say "you can't trust a model beyond 5 days" the next they will jump because of an hour 384 torch. Pretty funny how emotional weather can be.

Somebody is going to eventually cash in, you watch.

Lol...I couldnt agree with you more...but this year has been a little harder on us snow weenies because we have been living it up the past two winters. One thing I have learned is to not let my emotions be controlled by model runs. I know thats hard to do sometimes...I get excited pretty easily at the site of snow on a model but a warm model run doesnt have a opposite affect on me. I just go looking at the ensembles then. Ive not had time to look at the models just yet but I guarantee you I can find something positive on them...Thats what keeps me going smartass

by **ballpark** 2012-01-24, 6:50 pm

https://i.servimg.com/u/f48/17/18/18/08/18zgfs10.gif

This a good fantasy storm. I think the solar flares is screwing with all the data.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-24, 7:42 pm

18z GFS throwing us a bone.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 Gfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 8:10 pm

Play Play sorry I just Watched Over the Heddge The Dog Say Play Play.
Ya i Know I am 42 years old lol
But I have a 6yr if that helps

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 8:12 pm

secleveland wrote:Play Play sorry I just Watched Over the Heddge The Dog Say Play Play.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 196312d1261553438-2nd-bike-600rr-1000rr-lol_wut_by_oneazuresky

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 8:16 pm

imo I still thank it will be a good ice storm 2/05/12 ya i knownot showing that but who really knows what it showing it doesn,t

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-24, 8:19 pm

secleveland wrote:imo I still thank it will be a good ice storm 2/05/12 ya i knownot showing that but who really knows what it showing it doesn,t

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 O93kih

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 8:21 pm

LMFAO

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 8:25 pm

Well theres snow then no snow so that makes ice lol. Just gut filling but if it dose not happen.I have plenty of wood for next year.

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 8:33 pm

secleveland wrote:Tom i am Just you a year ago go come on give the snow weather nerd
a break

Lmao...I like this guy.

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 8:38 pm

Stovepipe you can help. I have no pics I just got F5 lol yeah I have a network degree But must of missed F5 part.lolo

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 8:50 pm

Toot what is your gut. Imean I followed you for a reason you have always been on

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-24, 8:54 pm

Cleveland, you my friend are funny. Also, when I read your posts, I hear this guy's voice:

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 B82zwp

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 8:54 pm

secleveland wrote:
Toot what is your gut. Imean I followed you for a reason you have always been on

You want to know how I feel on the rest of winter?

Its all right here

https://tootsweatherspot.forumotion.com/t162-toots-febuary-thru-march-forecast

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 9:28 pm

Now Tom not being ugly we all love you but you were the one that ask all the DA Queestions last Year . Now its my turn. Tom you have came a long way and I feel I have. I just set bck and read.You always had the guts to ask the questions.
Toot I was asking about feb 5 it just seems to me a good ice storm we or do. stovepipe some thing has to be entertaining its sure not the models.

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 9:32 pm

Tom why did you delete your post.Iam cool I am a 6foot 6 265lb Dyslexic not many people pick on me i like it. cherry

sorry i thought that was a time bomb lol jk

by **John1122** 2012-01-24, 9:35 pm

18z Ens keep snow showers over a good portion of the Mid-South and SE from about 200-384.

Would love to see that verify. That's one of the big things I miss about the last two winters. Not just the large storms. The sheer number of days flakes were flying.

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 9:35 pm

To try an predict any event as far out as Feb 5th is hard enough with this winter's modeling...predicting an ice event that far out would be impossible as it depends on a rare upper air setup. I have never seen an ice storm accurately predicted further than a couple of days out.

by Guest 2012-01-24, 9:41 pm

secleveland wrote:Tom why did you delete your post.Iam cool I am a 6foot 6 265lb Dyslexic not many people pick on me i like it.
sorry i thought that was a time bomb lol jk

Toot actually deleted it.. I was just askin what you meant with your post to me is all. I appreciate the compliments though. Cant learn without first asking Q's. And I'm 7.0 feet, 285 lolz

by **John1122** 2012-01-24, 9:41 pm

I've saw some predicted 1 week out before. It was in a very nice arctic set up back in the 1990s. I honestly didn't believe it would be an ice event because it was so cold. We had highs in the lower teens and a low around 4 the day before it happened. Sure enough we started out as heavy sleet, temps went from 4 to 25 in about 45 minutes and it set in and rained for several hours with temps in the upper 20s.

It seems like the big Christmas ice storm of 1998 was also predicted pretty far in advance. 4-5 days at least.

It's odd thinking of that, the SE used to be especially prone to heavy sleet events. I've saw 1-2 inches of sleet with freezing rain on top of it before. But that takes very dense arctic air being in place, that's been in very short supply since the mid 1990s.

by **secleveland** 2012-01-24, 9:43 pm

Thank You Toot. I just know there has been Cardinals and small birds Stocking up on feed.Not scientific just by watching

by **Toot** 2012-01-24, 9:48 pm

Not saying you havent seen it John.... because you have been more actively monitoring winter weather longer than I have no doubt. But the ones about a week out that I have seen were always portrayed as just a possible wintry mix...they didnt actually know it was going to be a crippling ice storm until a few days before hand.

by **snowman72** 2012-01-24, 9:51 pm

I just need to know when and if anything is going to fal so I can stock up on beer and chips

by **John1122** 2012-01-24, 9:52 pm

The 850c 0 line is South of 40, if not well south of all Tennessee during every 12 hour 1pm/1am frame on the 18z beyond 204.

This amount of precip falls during that period.

First map is 204-276.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 18zgfs13

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 18zgfs13

Next 312-384

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 18zgfs14

Finally a 120 hours from 252-372

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 31 18zgfs15

by Guest 2012-01-24, 9:54 pm

Sounds cool, how do measure the birds "stocking up" vs normal levels? I have heard this alot before and wondered how people are able to measure an animals "stock level" vs normal levels

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