*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Stovepipe wrote:

Toldyaso... too warm.

Tom wrote:

snowdog wrote:Hooooooooly bazinga Batman. I likes the 18z NAM.

Isn't it too warm though?? Like its definitely more moisturized than 12z, but it also looks warmer as well. Maybe I'm just reading it wrong though.

It is going to be very close (for BNA). I'll side with track/climo and I gotta think there will be some good dynamic cooling going on in that deform band which moves right over BNA.

Well here is total snow fall, not depth:

Tom wrote:Toldyaso... too warm.

LOL. It was actually a touch colder than the 12z run. Again, I'm only talking about here in and around BNA.

NAM is warmer. It is gone to be a now forcast as it appears to me.We either get dumped on with snow or just plain cold rain.It will interesting none the less.

Models don't much matter at this point. It's just strap in and hold on tight. If you normally do well with this kind of storm, you probably will again. If you are in a screw zone, you probably won't do as well.

This is DT's call map and I think it's pretty decent based on most of the model trends up to now and the general snowfall patterns in the area.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WINTER STORM IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF
AS RAIN...IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
AS SNOW INTO SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

KYZ040>043-046>049-054>057-062>067-071>078-081-082-181000-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.A.0001.120219T0800Z-120219T2000Z/
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...
GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
327 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 /227 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT: A HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE GROUND WILL BE
WARM AND WET WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS...BUT THE SNOW SHOULD FALL
HEAVILY ENOUGH AND FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME THAT
ACCUMULATION WILL STILL OCCUR.

* OTHER IMPACTS: NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH MAY CAUSE SOME
BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW IN RURAL AREAS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY HELP TO MITIGATE THAT SOMEWHAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST

Its looking like a lot of folks will lose power from this heavy wet snow.

The 8 inches I got in December 2009 was heavy wet snow and it knocked out my power for 3 days. I am hoping most of the weak trees went down with that one so if we do get much wet snow here that will be less of an issue.

The problem for east TN is it looks like the transfer of energy Knoxville doesn't get near the precip that Nashville does. Strictly according to the 18z NAM. Without the heavy precip and dynamics I don't know if you guys cash in quite like the middle of the state looks to possibly get. Looks like the better precip and dynamics go from MiddleTN to EasternKY.

Allan Huffman just posted maps that illustrate the differences in the position of the low among all of the models. The NAM is the clear northern outlier. It'll be interesting to see if/when they converge.

Tom wrote:

Stovepipe wrote:18z NAM is certainly wet:

Wet.. but too warm.

Too warm for east tennessee but mother of God I would take that snowstorm.

BNA is calling for a dusting of snow for nasville and Northern middle tn and East Central TN get 1-2 inches. They not buying a winter storm yet.

The Cobb output for TYS on the 18z NAM is not pretty. We never get below 34 degrees at the surface and end up with only a brief mix. Gonna have to hope that run is not a trend.

Edit: BNA is even worse. Gets down to 34 but warms back up to 38 before precip exits! Terrible run for TN verbatim.

OHX not buying into the winter storm at all. They have Advisory criteria for NE plataue but that is it. Heck all they are forecasting for me is a slight chance of rain and snow. I mean I can see them going conservative but it will probably snow more then they think.
EDIT: The 18z run really confuses me, it clear shows the 0 degree line throught west tennessee yet there is hardly any snow that accumulates.

Adam2014 wrote:OHX not buying into the winter storm at all. They have Advisory criteria for NE plataue but that is it. Heck all they are forecasting for me is a slight chance of rain and snow. I mean I can see them going conservative but it will probably snow more then they think.

Yeah West TN is showing Heavy Wet Snow on there site. They our preparing people for the possiabilty of it anyway.

Anyway on to the 18Z GFS its just getting started.

Unless 0z shows differently, I'm going with a light snow outside of extreme North Tn... and by extreme North, I mean right on the KY/TN and VA/TN borders. I've seen too many issues that won't allow anyone else to see more than 1-3 inches, and 3 is really pushing it imo. I will make a call for East Tn tomorrow morning after looking through 0z data/maps and reading up on what people think and form my own hypothesis about the possible snow amounts for E. Tn. I can tell you this though... there won't be a snowstorm unless we get even better trends in regards to temps/speed of system/low track.

LOL the 18z GFS looks way south different.

Good stay further south lol. I need it.

Adam2014 wrote:Good stay further south lol. I need it.

Huh? Lol..

Tom wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Good stay further south lol. I need it.

Huh? Lol..

I need the storm to be a little further south, I have been too warm on many runs.

Adam2014 wrote:

Tom wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Good stay further south lol. I need it.

Huh? Lol..

I need the storm to be a little further south, I have been too warm on many runs.

Not that south though lol. That not only leaves you with warmer temps, but it also leaves you with just light rain haha.

The 18z GFS is super fast it is further south but I can not really tell if it is a good run or not.

It's either not pulling in as much cold air or it's just not showing the cooling due to resolution. I'm sure Mundie can expound on why.