*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Grandpa Nasty wrote:

jmundie wrote:Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

Just from the small amount of time I've had to follow this thread I have flt all along that Chatty would be all rain with temps in the upper 40's to lower 50's. I'm fine with that at this point. Currently I have the door open with a slight warm breeze coming through the security screen. I'm actually ready for 70 plus temps with cocktails and the grill fired up. Temp is sitting at 69 and if not for having to work tonight I would be sipping on margaritas and preparing the grill for a slaughterhouse of steaks and taters.

Here is Nasty's door on Sunday:

I wish I had a like button on here.

The thing that im starting to wonder about now is ground temps. They probably will be in the 40's since we have been in the 60s this week with no freezing temps till after the precip is here.

mmm...eggs wrote:The thing that im starting to wonder about now is ground temps. They probably will be in the 40's since we have been in the 60s this week with no freezing temps till after the precip is here.

What's really going to kill us is the sun angle. Between the ground temps and the sun angle we're screwed.

(kidding. we got 99 problems but ground temps and sun angle aint two)

Stovepipe wrote:

mmm...eggs wrote:The thing that im starting to wonder about now is ground temps. They probably will be in the 40's since we have been in the 60s this week with no freezing temps till after the precip is here.

What's really going to kill us is the sun angle. Between the ground temps and the sun angle we're screwed.

(kidding. we got 99 problems but ground temps and sun angle aint two)

LOL

Stovepipe wrote:

Grandpa Nasty wrote:

jmundie wrote:Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

Just from the small amount of time I've had to follow this thread I have flt all along that Chatty would be all rain with temps in the upper 40's to lower 50's. I'm fine with that at this point. Currently I have the door open with a slight warm breeze coming through the security screen. I'm actually ready for 70 plus temps with cocktails and the grill fired up. Temp is sitting at 69 and if not for having to work tonight I would be sipping on margaritas and preparing the grill for a slaughterhouse of steaks and taters.

Here is Nasty's door on Sunday: ?


[img]https://2img.net/h/oi41.tinypic.com/116hmb6.jpg[/i mg]

Haha Stove. That's one of the better ones you have posted. I hope I didn't piss on Tom's Wheaties. I think I pissed him off but I don't have a reason to get excited right now. Prove me wrong but I just don't see the major snow storm statewide Tom is thinking.

MRX jumped completely off the boat with this one and even has elevations over 3000 feet in my area as all rain.

JKL took the world cruise and says 2-4 minimum for their area with some areas of 6-8 would be very likely.

Damn stove. I'm on my tablet and for some reason when I try to quote the bottom of the quote is not viewable and it won't let me scroll to the bottom so it puts my quote in yours. Oh well, anyway Tom, no, there is nothing wrong with me. I am fine. If the rest of the state gets the snow you expect I can always hop in the car and drive to it.

Stovepipe wrote:

mmm...eggs wrote:The thing that im starting to wonder about now is ground temps. They probably will be in the 40's since we have been in the 60s this week with no freezing temps till after the precip is here.

What's really going to kill us is the sun angle. Between the ground temps and the sun angle we're screwed.

(kidding. we got 99 problems but ground temps and sun angle aint two)

Lol, I see what you did there At first im like wait what? your not supposed to actually agree with me! lool

Brandon Huffman at American:

BTW taking a peak at our vort, this doesn't have the look of a fast moving bowling ball that sometimes skirt along the gulf coast. The huge stj connection is noticable as is the almost southern trajectory. This thing is going spit out a lot of QPF.

What they our saying to our North.




Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY


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000
FXUS63 KLMK 162025
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Updated at 321 PM EST Feb 16 2012

High pressure moving from Missouri to Virginia will keep things
quiet for this short term. The low clouds that plagued the region
during the day on Thursday should break up, leaving just some
upper level clouds in their wake for the overnight hours. Patchy
fog may form tonight, especially in southeastern sections of the LMK
CWA. High clouds streaming in from the southwest should help to
keep the fog from becoming widespread or particularly dense. Lows
tonight will be around the freezing mark.

Friday we can expect sunshine filtered through high cloudiness, with
nearly calm winds as that high pressure system moves overhead. The
mercury will rise into the 50s.

Friday night high clouds will increase and thicken ahead of an
approaching weekend storm system. However winds will be light so
temperatures will still be able to fall into the lower and middle
30s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Updated at 321 AM EST Feb 16 2012

Saturday - Sunday

...Winter Storm Threat Increasing for Saturday Night and Sunday For
Portions of the Ohio Valley...

Expect a mostly dry day Saturday, although a storm system will be
getting organized over the Gulf Coast states. Expect increasing mid
and upper level clouds through the day with highs generally around
the 50 degree mark. Could see some mid 50s if system trends a bit
slower. Will mention a chance of light rain overspreading south
central Kentucky mainly after Noon on Saturday.

By Saturday evening, coupled jet structure aloft will result in
surface cyclogenesis from Louisiana to Alabama. Meanwhile, shortwave
trough will amplify, taking on a neutral tilt as it moves into Dixie
Alley. Deepest moisture with this system will begin to move into the
region through the overnight hours, gradually saturating from the
top down. This will occur as surface temperatures drop through the
40s and rain chances gradually give way to a mix of rain or snow.
After midnight early Sunday morning, strong frontogenetical lift
combined with increasing deep moisture and crashing thicknesses will
likely result in a change over to all snow as surface temperatures
begin falling through the 30s. Adding to the cooling effect, will
have to watch for wet-bulbing as column saturates from top down.
Bands of moderate to heavy precipitation are possible with this
setup and with the wet bulbing, will most likely fall as a moderate
to heavy wet snow in places through the overnight. Have increased
POPS Saturday night with likely mention along and south of an
Elizabethtown to Lexington line. Further north, will carry a solid
chance to along and just north of the Ohio River. Due to uncertainty
in eventual track of this system along with timing of changeover,
can not nail down any accumulations or where they may occur. Adding
to the puzzle, a warm surface could also inhibit accumulations. Will
continue to mention in HWO and monitor the latest model runs for a
more definite track.

Precipitation, in the form of light snow, should quickly move out by
Sunday afternoon or evening as a surface low moves off the Carolina
coast. Have gone well below guidance on Sunday since it is unlikely
that temperatures will warm a whole lot on the back side of the
system, especially if there is some fresh snow on the ground.

Sunday Night - Monday Night...

Strong high pressure with brief ridging aloft will stay in control
through Monday night, keeping things dry. Look for lows in the mid
20s on Sunday night, slightly milder on Monday night in the lower
30s. Monday will see highs in the low to mid 40s

Somebody go punch the NAM. I think it fell asleep mid run.

Channel 8 met says trace for the Valley, 2+ for Plateau/SE KY.

Lawrenceburg gets screwed on Earl's snowfall map.

18z NAM is slooooowly spitting out maps.

I love the look of the 18z NAM it is a whole lot more colder and slower with the precip so we get more snow.

Ohx afternoon discussion mentions possible accumulations for the plateau but will wait foe further runs of the models

Nam isnt showing any Snow this time for TN except for the extreme NE section of TN the temps must be warmer.

Ohh momma

I thought the storm went more East this time.

Reb wrote:Ohh momma

You rang?

The NAM seems to be the only model trying the secondary cyclogenesis...so im not sure one can trust many aspects of that model. Either way the trends today have been awesome. Roughly speaking it looks like a solid I-40 and north event with possible lighter amounts south of 40. I dont think downsloping will be much of a problem in the valley because precip is moving in from the sw and that tends to ride up the valley in contrast to precip moving over the plateau and then into the valley.

The E TN Valley will have issues with temps like always but I imagine with this strong of a system that will be overcame.

Toot wrote:The NAM seems to be the only model trying the secondary cyclogenesis...so im not sure one can trust many aspects of that model. Either way the trends today have been awesome. Roughly speaking it looks like a solid I-40 and north event with possible lighter amounts south of 40

Well hopefully I can pull something out of this event, I hate I- 40 events...

18Z GFS was a good run for Snow more like the Euro. 18Z Nam was transfering its energy to the East coast.