Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **ballpark** 2012-02-16, 12:59 pm

I think you call this Snow porn Stovepipe.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OHX

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:16 pm

ballpark wrote:I think you call this Snow porn Stovepipe.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OHX

Wow, Earl's snowfall map looks considerably better than Twister's!

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 8 NAM_221_2012021612_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:29 pm

I haven't seen the maps yet, but Euro text output is looking sexy for TN. Laying down some serious QPF with decent thickness, cool 850s, and surface right at freezing. From BNA eastward looks like a win from what I can tell. Jackson and Memphis close too.

by **ballpark** 2012-02-16, 1:32 pm

I think the difference is the NAM Model is colder than the GFS. That is the big difference.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:32 pm

UKMET had a good run too apparently.

popcorn

by **Reb** 2012-02-16, 1:32 pm

east tn gets the shaft

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:33 pm

Reb wrote: east tn gets the shaft

lolwut

by **Tom** 2012-02-16, 1:37 pm

Reb wrote: east tn gets the shaft

How so, Reb?

by **Reb** 2012-02-16, 1:44 pm

earl plasters west/north/middle and the etn valley gets shiznit

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:47 pm

12z Euro Snowfall:

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by **ballpark** 2012-02-16, 1:47 pm

Euro has the whole State of TN with a Snow storm. I like it.

by **ballpark** 2012-02-16, 1:49 pm

This looks like the first real deal this year.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:50 pm

Folks, I think it is officially safe to get excited in TN now.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 8 Zk0q2x

by **jmundie** 2012-02-16, 1:54 pm

You guys in the valley are gonna have a rough go at it. Southern valley, I wouldnot expect much. Especially if the timing on the euro is correct and it comes through during the day.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:55 pm

Oh we know to filter all of this through the "valley equation" but even after that Knoxville would see snow on the ground if the Euro verified. I'm more than pleased with the modeling today.

by **Reb** 2012-02-16, 1:56 pm

valley warm nose never fails

by **jmundie** 2012-02-16, 1:56 pm

ballpark wrote:I think the difference is the NAM Model is colder than the GFS. That is the big difference.

Its the dynamic cooling. The NAM is run at a higher resolution than the gfs, so it picks up on small scale things like that. The GFS may not ever show the dynamic cooling, but if we get a sub 1000 low pressure near atlanta, you can bet your bottom dollar dynamic cooling will play a part.

I'm happy with any of the solutions being spit out right now, besides the canadian, which is a bit too borderline for my tastes.

by **jmundie** 2012-02-16, 1:58 pm

Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-16, 1:59 pm

jmundie wrote:Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

by **Tom** 2012-02-16, 2:07 pm

jmundie wrote:Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

What about Knoxville/Morristown section?

by **jmundie** 2012-02-16, 2:23 pm

The further north you are, the better your chances of seeing measurable snow. But there's going to be significantly less for the valley than for the rest of the state. Also, the energy transfer is happening about the time the deform band reaches you guys, so that won't help either. Southern valley gets dryslotting, downsloping, and the change in the low pressure center to the NC coast. I could totally be wrong, but southern valley is in about the worst place for this system it appears.

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-16, 3:00 pm

Well im glad the trends are going up for a good event. Sortof wish I kept my mouth shut yesterday now. Very Happy

by **Homemommy** 2012-02-16, 3:06 pm

jmundie wrote: I could totally be wrong, but southern valley is in about the worst place for this system it appears.

Nope. I would say you're right. We're ALWAYS in the worst spot for snow. But what do we expect, we live in a hole. I have chosen to not have one iota of excitement for this one. That way if a miracle happens, I'll get to be surprised.

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by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-02-16, 3:08 pm

jmundie wrote:Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

Just from the small amount of time I've had to follow this thread I have flt all along that Chatty would be all rain with temps in the upper 40's to lower 50's. I'm fine with that at this point. Currently I have the door open with a slight warm breeze coming through the security screen. I'm actually ready for 70 plus temps with cocktails and the grill fired up. Temp is sitting at 69 and if not for having to work tonight I would be sipping on margaritas and preparing the grill for a slaughterhouse of steaks and taters.

by **Tom** 2012-02-16, 3:12 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:
jmundie wrote:Its hard for the valley to get a good snow unless the storm comes out of the gulf between mobile and pensacola. Ya'll need ne winds from the start in order to avoid downsloping and to get the cold down to the floor ofthe valley.

Unfortunately, chattanooga willlikely get shafted.

Just from the small amount of time I've had to follow this thread I have flt all along that Chatty would be all rain with temps in the upper 40's to lower 50's. I'm fine with that at this point. Currently I have the door open with a slight warm breeze coming through the security screen. I'm actually ready for 70 plus temps with cocktails and the grill fired up. Temp is sitting at 69 and if not for having to work tonight I would be sipping on margaritas and preparing the grill for a slaughterhouse of steaks and taters.

Uhh... when the rest of the state is experiencing snow, while you're experiencing a cold rain, there is something wrong with one who thinks its alright just to have all rain, especially in a year like this one.

facepalm