Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 1:28 pm

I'm too lazy to post the weather underground snow maps for the euro but did notice that they show it getting really amped up in northern middle TN and across the northern plateau. John and Van are going to get absolutely nailed with this one.

by **connerconner** 2012-02-18, 1:28 pm

jmundie wrote:The euro accum maps just destroy Nashville to Monterey. The highest accums they've showed with this system. Looks like 1-2 inch per hour rates for 6 hours (if the maps are accurate)

that is absolutely puking. no way they dont end up with atleast 9 inches if that verfies

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 1:32 pm

The HRRR is showing backend snow off this thing even down in southern Mississippi tonight lol.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 105rw1v

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 1:34 pm

WRF is sexy for TN:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 Wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour

by **Math/Met** 2012-02-18, 1:35 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
Good stuff Math/Met. Could you by chance post those precip type charts that you typically post during storms or is it too early for that yet?

NAM Overview for Morristown

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 Nambuf10

Overview for Knoxville

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 Nambuf13

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-18, 1:36 pm

Where is the link to see the HRR maps of snowfall?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 1:37 pm

Math/Met wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:
Good stuff Math/Met. Could you by chance post those precip type charts that you typically post during storms or is it too early for that yet?
NAM Overview for Morristown

Overview for Knoxville

Awesome, thank you!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 1:37 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:Where is the link to see the HRR maps of snowfall?

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=full&run_time=18+Feb+2012+-+15Z

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 1:39 pm

JKL is going to be upgrading most of their CWA to a Winter Storm Warning with the afternoon update. Will see if MRX follows suit. Hard to know because they've skipped all their normal AFD updates since 6am.

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-18, 1:39 pm

Stovepipe wrote:WRF is sexy for TN:

Doesn't look so sexy for the Knoxville area..Snow is not as NEAR as strong as it is back in M tn.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 1:51 pm

Math/Met wrote:It is time to start paying attention to charts like these as well. We need to start looking for the areas of greatest pressure changes to get a better idea of where the low will actually go and compare it to model data.

Agreed MM....I do this at the spc Meso analyisis site.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 1:56 pm

John1122 wrote:JKL is going to be upgrading most of their CWA to a Winter Storm Warning with the afternoon update. Will see if MRX follows suit. Hard to know because they've skipped all their normal AFD updates since 6am.

MRX is having tough decision right now...lol because they want to keep this as conservative as they can...thats hard to do when all guidancw suggests WSW for a big area in N TN

they may go with a WSW...but more likely a WWA for alot of places

by **ballpark** 2012-02-18, 2:13 pm

Stove can you how much snow the short range models suggesting for Whitehouse, tn?

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-18, 2:17 pm

Well OHX is finally going with some accumulation with 0.5 inches of snow. I am very glad to see that.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 2:27 pm

If this storm is as windy as they are saying it's going to be hard on trees. Very wet snow with 15-20mph winds and 30mph gusts isn't a good combination for trees and powerlines.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 3:12 pm

18z Nam i9s crrushing west TN yikes

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 F24

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-18, 3:14 pm

How does 18z Nam look for Knoxville?

by **jmundie** 2012-02-18, 3:15 pm

Toot wrote:18z Nam i9s crrushing west TN

BL looks to still be an issue, but with the bright banding we're seeing, I would agree, from Jackson to Monterey on the north side of I40 especially - big snows on the 18z nam

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 3:15 pm

And east TN...just by the graphics there one could expect 2-4 state wide except NE TN and the mountains....heavier anounts along the notherm plateau and mountainsns and NE TN

by **Reb** 2012-02-18, 3:21 pm

HOLY BALLS

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 Nam_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-18, 3:25 pm

MRX took snow completely out of my forecast for tomorrow..They also lowered my chance of snow for tomorrow night to 50 percent, it was at 80 percent... seriously?! Is it really not going to snow in the valley?!http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Emory+Heights&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=36.0231&textField2=-84.2222

by **connerconner** 2012-02-18, 3:28 pm

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 3:29 pm

Reb wrote:HOLY BALLS

Yes and surface temps are around 30-36

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 NAM_221_2012021818_F27_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND

850s are extremely cold *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 NAM_221_2012021818_F27_TMPC_850_MB

Big dog there

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 23 Large-dogs_TheSocialNewspaper-12

...not one to say I told you so but the north trend never stood of chance with blocking in the NAO region looks like the nam came back south again Adam smartass

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 3:30 pm

Lawdy merci at that there NAM! Now what pray tell does the text data show?

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 3:31 pm

MRX refuses to upgrade the Plateau to a warning. Only the NE TN mountains and SW VA.

Says too much uncertainty for the plateau at this point.

Yet this is the updated point forecast for 3000 feet here close to me.

Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 9am, then snow between 9am and 11am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet after 11am. Temperature falling to around 32 by 5pm. Breezy, with a east wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.