Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 3:33 pm

And MRX's reasoning.....Warm ground temps that will prohibit accumulation on the plateau. Although they say precip rates will be extremely high here.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 3:33 pm

Anyway, I am off to the basketball tournament in Oak Ridge. I fully expect to see a winter weather advisory firmly in place for here when I get home tonight.

by **connerconner** 2012-02-18, 3:33 pm

9 to 13 inches jeeebus! wash

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 3:34 pm

Sweet jesus,,,9-to 13 and no winter storm watch...they need to hire new employees

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 3:36 pm

John1122 wrote:MRX refuses to upgrade the Plateau to a warning. Only the NE TN mountains and SW VA.

Says too much uncertainty for the plateau at this point.

Yet this is the updated point forecast for 3000 feet here close to me.

Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 9am, then snow between 9am and 11am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet after 11am. Temperature falling to around 32 by 5pm. Breezy, with a east wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 24 20qnnes

by **AndyP** 2012-02-18, 3:40 pm

I don't know what to expect here in Erwin. MRX has mentioned the possibility of a couple of inche, but hasn't given much indication of anything more. I'm optimistic, but trying not to expect to much.

by **AndyP** 2012-02-18, 3:41 pm

Whoops, should've kept my mouth closed!! We are now under a Winter Storm Warning here in Unicoi county!!!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 3:42 pm

18z NAM Snowfall:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 24 Usaasnowipersfc030n

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 3:44 pm

Sneak peek into MRX command desk!! lolz

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 24 Thumbs_07

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 3:46 pm

Here is a preview of Earl's 18z NAM snow map:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 24 N4uruu

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 3:49 pm

I got money that MRX issues a WWA for the central valley....which I knew would be needed several days ago

by **snowdog** 2012-02-18, 4:18 pm

Looks like Memphis to Nashville is starting to change their tune and sour on the system to some degree. What are they seeing that I don't? Is the system currently weaker than progged? Doesn't look it to me.

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-18, 4:22 pm

Ground temps I bet and the fact that air temps will be above freezing will keep accumulations at bay.. Thats the only thing I can see. But im sure there seeing more cause I feel that would still give me a good 1-2inches.. But whatever Im somewhat tired of weather if we dont get a good snow from this..

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 4:23 pm

Frank Straight's video from last night was interesting. He noted how the models have slowed the storm down every single run over the past couple of days. The slower the storm is, the more cold air it can pull in. He said he'll be posting another video tonight.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 4:31 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:Ground temps I bet and the fact that air temps will be above freezing will keep accumulations at bay.. Thats the only thing I can see. But im sure there seeing more cause I feel that would still give me a good 1-2inches.. But whatever Im somewhat tired of weather if we dont get a good snow from this..

If I hear any more anymore about ground temps I will put you in your place...I have done many studies about soil temps and how it afffects accumulated snowfall. if its extremely light it does affect the accums.. if its heavy light and above... ground temps are no longer a factor when it comes to accumulating snow... due to the cold layer that has formed on top of the gound burn

by Vanster67 2012-02-18, 4:33 pm

Wow ohx just cut my snow totals here in Monterrey down to 1/2 to1 inch facepalm

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-18, 4:34 pm

Ok then why did they cut my snow from 4inches to less then 1/2inch and basically take snow out south and west of wilson county.. All models that I have seen give me 2inches and the storm seems to be on same track.. So has to be temp's.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 4:39 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:Ok then why did they cut my snow from 4inches to less then 1/2inch and basically take snow out south and west of wilson county.. All models that I have seen give me 2inches and the storm seems to be on same track.. So has to be temp's.

Read skillz

SURFACE LOW NEAR HOUSTON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 24.

by **snowdog** 2012-02-18, 4:44 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:Ok then why did they cut my snow from 4inches to less then 1/2inch and basically take snow out south and west of wilson county.. All models that I have seen give me 2inches and the storm seems to be on same track.. So has to be temp's.

I have no idea why OHX is cutting accums. It's almost like the new shift is coming in and isn't as confident. But I don't know why. It's not ground temps and Toot is right with respect to ground temps. They won't inhibit accums in any real way.

I think the new shift at OHX are just hedging their bets here. There are a lot of things that have to go right tonight for the changeover to occur. Then a few more things have to go right to get significant accums. Right now models show all these things happening but it could very easily be cold rain followed by a few snow showers. Again, hedging bets.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 4:45 pm

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 24 Dln6hf

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 24 Oiu8

Obligatory

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-18, 4:47 pm

Toot wrote:
mmm...eggs wrote:Ground temps I bet and the fact that air temps will be above freezing will keep accumulations at bay.. Thats the only thing I can see. But im sure there seeing more cause I feel that would still give me a good 1-2inches.. But whatever Im somewhat tired of weather if we dont get a good snow from this..
If I hear any more anymore about ground temps I will put you in your place...I have done many studies about soil temps and how it afffects accumulated snowfall. if its extremely light it does affect the accums.. if its heavy light and above... ground temps are no longer a factor when it comes to accumulating snow... due to the cold layer that has formed on top of the gound

AGREE !!! I know we are supposed to stay on topic but In a dynamic storm like this with a deform band ground temps will not matter a lot. Probably the biggest snow in my areas history (March 1968) It was in the 60s for a week up until hours before the snow started.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 4:50 pm

Yes..the biggest snows I remember has been in warn ground temps April 87 93SS 98 ULL....all double digit snowfalls

by **snowdog** 2012-02-18, 5:00 pm

Toot, you need to give OHX a call and splain a few things to them. LOL.

[quote] A SECONDARY
ISSUE SURROUNDS THE GROUND TEMPERATURE. GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH
WE`VE SEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY, COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, DON`T KNOW
WHETHER GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT, AND THIS MAY PLAY JUST
AS MUCH A ROLE AS THE ABOVE-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.[quote]