Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 5:06 pm

i havent got much to say, cause it looks like west tn is completely out of this game... but with meg taking the snow word out even for its extreme northern counties could be a red flag, that means the deformation band wont be setting up as far back west as thought. the 850 s just dont look like is going to cut it around here. until you get about 5000 ft in the atmossphere... just not close enough to the ground to have an effect for us in wst tn. goodluck to mid and east tn friends.

by **AndyP** 2012-02-18, 5:12 pm

OHX Sunday snow potential graphic doesn't even show me
recieving "light" snow in Unicoi county!!!! Yet MRX has me under a Warning?!?!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 5:19 pm

but if for any reason we happen to get a suprise over this way, i will surely let yall know.... but for now, i will just be lurking around ever now and then... and hopefully i can chime in on some good info and pass it along... and maybe give yall my thoughts on this system later tonight... but in general, this winter cant end fast enough for me... i am ready for my severe weather... should be a barn burner this spring wash

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 5:19 pm

AndyP wrote:OHX Sunday snow potential graphic doesn't even show me
recieving "light" snow in Unicoi county!!!! Yet MRX has me under a Warning?!?!

Thats why this the best place for actual obs in the BNA and MRX'S CWA

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 5:32 pm

I don't care if the clown maps may not be accurate, they are still entertaining.

Earl's 18z NAM Snow Maps:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Iyk9l3

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Iyk9l3

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Nbdm4z

Just as psychedelic as I imagined.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 5:37 pm

sweet jesus yikes

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 5:44 pm

Never mentioned the euro one time...the euro will when this..shame on ohx

000
FXUS64 KOHX 182148
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
348 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECASTS I`VE
DONE IN RECENT MEMORY. A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DRAW UP A FORECAST WITH A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

WHAT WE KNOW: A HIGH QPF EVENT IS DEVELOPING AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST, ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW
MORNING, AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY NIGHTFALL. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SURROUND THE LOW, MAKING FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS,
WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE MID STATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WHAT WE DON`T KNOW: THE GFS PULLS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE NAM DOES. ALSO, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW MUCH COOLING WE CAN EXPECT FROM
PRECIPITATION EFFECTS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR BNA
AT 18Z SUNDAY SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH ALL SNOW. THE
SAME SOUNDING BY THE GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW. A SECONDARY
ISSUE SURROUNDS THE GROUND TEMPERATURE. GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH
WE`VE SEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY, COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, DON`T KNOW
WHETHER GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT, AND THIS MAY PLAY JUST
AS MUCH A ROLE AS THE ABOVE-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AS WE NOW HAVE IT, THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR
TOMORROW FOR AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF NASHVILLE ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. HOPEFULLY, THE NAM AND
GFS WILL COME MORE IN LINE IN THE NEXT RUN TO HELP PRODUCE A MORE
CONFIDENT FORECAST. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE POSSIBILITIES REMAIN
LARGE AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 5:46 pm

Those NAMs maps seem about right tom me stove

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 5:48 pm

After more than a week tracking this bad girl, here she is in all her beauty:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 35bdnv6

by **Math/Met** 2012-02-18, 5:50 pm

Toot wrote:Those NAMs maps seem about right tom me stove

The maps match up pretty good with the Bufkit data that I'm looking for East TN.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 5:51 pm

Full blown and mature strong mid lat extratropical cyclone...just wow

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 5:53 pm

2 hour pressure changes

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Pchg

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 5:53 pm

Toot wrote:Never mentioned the euro one time...the euro will when this..shame on ohx

000
FXUS64 KOHX 182148
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
348 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECASTS I`VE
DONE IN RECENT MEMORY. A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DRAW UP A FORECAST WITH A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

WHAT WE KNOW: A HIGH QPF EVENT IS DEVELOPING AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST, ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW
MORNING, AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY NIGHTFALL. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SURROUND THE LOW, MAKING FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS,
WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE MID STATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WHAT WE DON`T KNOW: THE GFS PULLS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE NAM DOES. ALSO, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW MUCH COOLING WE CAN EXPECT FROM
PRECIPITATION EFFECTS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR BNA
AT 18Z SUNDAY SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH ALL SNOW. THE
SAME SOUNDING BY THE GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW. A SECONDARY
ISSUE SURROUNDS THE GROUND TEMPERATURE. GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH
WE`VE SEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY, COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, DON`T KNOW
WHETHER GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT, AND THIS MAY PLAY JUST
AS MUCH A ROLE AS THE ABOVE-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AS WE NOW HAVE IT, THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR
TOMORROW FOR AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF NASHVILLE ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. HOPEFULLY, THE NAM AND
GFS WILL COME MORE IN LINE IN THE NEXT RUN TO HELP PRODUCE A MORE
CONFIDENT FORECAST. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE POSSIBILITIES REMAIN
LARGE AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW.

i am telling you, it sounds like ohx is getting some cold feet ( god i hope charles loring dont threaten me) even though mid tennesee is in much better shape than west tn every tnought about being in, they may be fixing to follw megs lead... at least for there southern and most western counties of their cwa.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 6:00 pm

Some closer up views
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 20120218.2231.goes_15.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-Central_South-x-x.DAY

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 20120218.2231.goes_15.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-x-x_x-x-x.DAYNGT

by **jmundie** 2012-02-18, 6:05 pm

I at least appreciate that OHX is saying they have no idea, instead of just saying "it absolutely isn't going to snow"

REmember - mid tenn has had some pretty big accum forecast busts in the last 5 years - if the person in charge of the forecast was the one who busted, you know thats going to play into the decision.

I don't understand the not mentioning the euro though.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 6:07 pm

This is the 12z NAM12 and its pretty sexy

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type24

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type27

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type30

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type33

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type36

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type39

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Type42

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 6:36 pm

Im like two counties away from a WS warning...MRX dont even have a SPS out yet...what a bunch of slackers

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 6:50 pm

another tidbit from JKL's WSW

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFICULT ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE HEAVY AND WET...WHICH COULD RESULT IN DAMAGED OR DOWNED
TREES AND LIMBS... ALONG WITH POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-18, 6:54 pm

Just an observation. The high in Dyersburg was originally supposed to be 59 today. We struggled to reach 50. It is currently 46 with a NE wind at 14.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 7:34 pm

18z hires NMM

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Cld27

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 7:36 pm

look what a a long squall line on our Miller A all the way to the pacific...thats a powerful cyclone there yikes

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 7:53 pm

Our system is rapidly developing

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 25 Anim_scentrc

by **Jed33** 2012-02-18, 8:06 pm

Toot wrote:Our system is rapidly developing

Wow guys! I went over to Beech Mountain with the fam. today to go skiing. It was fun, but I've been out of pocket a little bit and been catching up on this system. It sure is a beauty there! It's amazing how strong this thing is looking! Wonder how much more it can/will intensify? On a side note, those guys at Beech are sure hoping that they get in on the action with this system. It was rather pathetic there today in the snow dept. yikes

In fact, the only snow was on the actual slopes all the way to the summit. First time I've ever seen such a lack of snow there.

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-18, 8:19 pm

Over at other forums people are starting to settle for a dusting.. I'll be damned if I settle for that after all the sleep I have lost. I wont even be satisfied unless I get well over a inch.. I guess as things look now 2 solid inches would be good. But forget a dusting..

by **Reb** 2012-02-18, 8:39 pm

I think I am going to head up to Jellico tomorrow. probably going to need to throw some heavy shiz in the back of my truck haha. its literally the worst vehicle to drive in the snow.