*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Wow -- the nam is just like "oh the last 4 runs, I've been underestimating surface temps by 10 degrees. Sorry about that"

Or its currently on crack.

One or the other.

I wish I went to bed.. This is making me more mad each run.. I guess now we need to pray we can even get snow in the air.

the nam is on crack and has been this whole storm thread

At this point, All I will trust is the very short HI/RES models.

You guys are the biggest weenies.

You can't just dismiss the nam now that it isn't showing something you want, and move to the euro, or to the hrrr, or ruc.

YOu have to use all the data - and this run may be a hiccup, or it may be the model adjusting to reality. We don't know.

Yea I was going to say lol the Nam was our best model showing the most snow and everything.

jmundie wrote:You guys are the biggest weenies.

You can't just dismiss the nam now that it isn't showing something you want, and move to the euro, or to the hrrr, or ruc.

YOu have to use all the data - and this run may be a hiccup, or it may be the model adjusting to reality. We don't know.

No thats not what I am saying mundie. That could very well verify, I just mean for my sake I am just going to watch the HRRR. I hate watching the globals this late. Sorry for the confusion.

people on American are saying the NAM is a good run for E Tn

Can someone post the nam Cause I wanna see what yall are seeing.

You don't want to see it skillz trust me. We have to take this run into consideration though, although it is showing something totally different.
I just wonder what the HRRR and the RUC will say to this.

Just an observation here. I know I was at 60 degrees when we got home earlier at 530. I am now sitting at 49 degrees. I don't know if that is a bit of evaporational cooling as the radar shows the very edge of the rain beginning to move into my area. Also, my wind is pretty stiff right now from the North. I guess the front/a front? has pushed through? I don't know, system is giving me headaches, lol. Trying to figure out. I didn't think the front was going to push through this early, but then again, I haven't been reading a lot of the updates today.

Mundie the fookin nam has changed every run you tard...the euro has been ULTRA consistent. The nam is a joke with this storm. and its gave me accums every run...The model sucks PERIOD and always has

It will be ok

Toot wrote:Mundie the fookin nam has changed every run you tard...the euro has been ULTRA consistent. The nam is a joke with this storm. and its gave me accums every run...The model sucks PERIOD and always has

It will be ok

from my experience in loving weather over years, the nam is actually pretty accurate within a 48 hour period... its known to be the first to pick up on latest trends... not sayting this is right... but dont ever deny the nam within 48

Yall are on drugs the ukmet..euro..cmc...jma all verify way ahead of the nam (NCEP)

Forecast errors

If the gfs goes warm again- it may be over. A big switch like this either means that the model Got some new data it hadn't been expecting or there was an initialization error. The 850s look good but the cooling hardly makes it to the surface. The low is further south and weaker which is why there's less dynamic cooling.

We have to have dynamic cooling (if you aren't at high elevation) to get good snow out of this.

The snow depth that the NAM just put out gave my county 6 to 8 inches . It's not bad for everybody, but I'm working with 1700 ft in elevation.

Adam you need to back posts up with data when you say one model is better than another or else i will delete your post. This is a busy thread

Adam one storm does not take away the fact that it is the best detrministic model out there. That wont hold up sun. If you're going to give opinions that disagree with guidance you better provide something to back it up in busy threads.

0z NAM Snowfall:

I went ahead and deleted my posts, sorry for being a nuisance. I just wanted to voice my opinion. Anyways sorry toot, back to the storm.

I'll say one thing, my confidence one way the other with this storm will not be affected one bit by the GFS at this range. It is a great model but 24 hours out it's resolution is not even close to ideal when trying to nail down these small scale features. I raise an eyebrow at what the NAM is showing and hope the short range models don't trend this way. But the GFS lol, ain't gonna sweat it. That's not being a weenie that's just being realistic.

You need to look at the {SREF Short range ensembles) which the nam is a member of and teh nam usually dont agree with the SREF mean...the nam is a horrible model but even a blind skunk finds and egg every once in awhile

The real question on my mind is, what is the current strength of the low and how does that compare to what was modeled? Are there any signs of it being weaker? I haven't seen the current maps so I can't say. It's something worth keeping an eye on obviously if we hope to pull in enough cold air.

Ok the 12z Euro had the low at 1008 mb at 00z tonight, closing off a 1004 at 06z. I'm sure there are plenty more variables to compare in regards to strength, but how are we verifying on that?

Current surface map 1007Mb