Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:05 pm

Euro text data rolling in, looking sexy so far.

by **Jed33** 2012-02-17, 1:08 pm

Tom wrote:
snowdog wrote:The bad thing for West TN (memphis to Jackson) is that the low looks to go from roughly Nawlins to south of Huntsville and really gets cranking somewhere in there. So the dynamic cooling will probably get cranking somwhere around Jackson and start changing over the deform band somewhere between Jackson and Nashville. you want to be close to the low (northwest quad)...but not too close.

Good for us here in East Tn though, right?

Raleigh Weather on American just listed his snowfall forecast. It seems that you and I Tom are right on the 1-3 inch line (granted it's a very sharp gradient on his forecast map). Tapering to a dusting to one inch from say central Jefferson Co. down through Knox and maybe one more county down. I'm still trying to learn my East TN counties, lol. Once you get from say Hawkins and N Greene Co. North to the sate line, he had 3-6 for that area.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:09 pm

12z Euro:

TYS

Code:: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z FEB17 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 17-FEB 5.3 2.9 1022 95 7 0.00 566 548 FRI 18Z 17-FEB 11.4 4.1 1022 55 40 0.00 566 548 SAT 00Z 18-FEB 7.7 3.9 1020 66 48 0.00 565 549 SAT 06Z 18-FEB 4.9 6.0 1019 72 74 0.00 564 548 SAT 12Z 18-FEB 2.1 5.5 1019 82 78 0.00 563 548 SAT 18Z 18-FEB 14.7 5.2 1017 41 67 0.00 564 549 SUN 00Z 19-FEB 10.5 4.6 1015 69 64 0.00 563 550 SUN 06Z 19-FEB 7.5 3.7 1015 62 86 0.00 562 550 SUN 12Z 19-FEB 4.2 2.3 1010 92 100 0.09 558 550 SUN 18Z 19-FEB 2.9 -0.1 1009 98 100 0.33 552 544 MON 00Z 20-FEB -0.3 -4.7 1016 91 94 0.29 550 538 MON 06Z 20-FEB -1.9 -3.9 1021 91 36 0.04 553 536 MON 12Z 20-FEB -4.2 0.2 1024 90 8 0.00 562 542

BNA

Code:: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB17 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 17-FEB 5.2 3.9 1024 85 21 0.00 565 546 FRI 18Z 17-FEB 11.5 4.2 1023 45 53 0.00 566 547 SAT 00Z 18-FEB 8.7 4.9 1020 67 57 0.00 564 548 SAT 06Z 18-FEB 6.2 5.9 1019 73 80 0.00 563 547 SAT 12Z 18-FEB 3.6 4.8 1019 79 81 0.00 562 547 SAT 18Z 18-FEB 13.8 4.7 1019 40 75 0.00 563 547 SUN 00Z 19-FEB 9.6 4.3 1016 63 78 0.00 561 547 SUN 06Z 19-FEB 7.4 3.0 1015 56 91 0.00 559 547 SUN 12Z 19-FEB 1.8 -0.2 1014 95 100 0.17 554 543 SUN 18Z 19-FEB 1.8 -2.0 1014 85 98 0.34 551 540 MON 00Z 20-FEB 2.5 -3.6 1018 66 55 0.03 550 536 MON 06Z 20-FEB -1.7 -0.4 1022 75 19 0.00 558 541 MON 12Z 20-FEB -4.0 2.1 1025 78 7 0.00 563 543

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:13 pm

Jed33 wrote:
Tom wrote:
snowdog wrote:The bad thing for West TN (memphis to Jackson) is that the low looks to go from roughly Nawlins to south of Huntsville and really gets cranking somewhere in there. So the dynamic cooling will probably get cranking somwhere around Jackson and start changing over the deform band somewhere between Jackson and Nashville. you want to be close to the low (northwest quad)...but not too close.

Good for us here in East Tn though, right?

Raleigh Weather on American just listed his snowfall forecast. It seems that you and I Tom are right on the 1-3 inch line (granted it's a very sharp gradient on his forecast map). Tapering to a dusting to one inch from say central Jefferson Co. down through Knox and maybe one more county down. I'm still trying to learn my East TN counties, lol. Once you get from say Hawkins and N Greene Co. North to the sate line, he had 3-6 for that area.

Thanks Jed!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:25 pm

12z Euro Snow Fall

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by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:28 pm

Robert at American:

European run shifted south and a couple hours slower with the surface storm, and sped up the high pressure wedging down the Apps. I don't know if its right, its against the majority, and to be splitting that 6 hour window is crucial as I mentioned on my page. It literally makes a huge difference on P-types. If that run is correct, most of northern NC will get a nice snowfall (not sure about accumulations as its a lot of daytime event), but snow falling atleast, and probably a good snowstorm for Hickory, Winston and Greensboro and maybe eventually RDU and northeast NC night time since it appears to wrap up. In fact northeast NC may have the benefit of darkness and a steepening low pressure , so wouldnt' be surprised at something major coastal Va, NC.
Same for TN and southern KY, southern VA as the cold arrives on both sides of the Apps 6 hours earlier on this run. Definitely more Wintery look and supressed. This run doesn't go into West Va or central Va much. We'll see if 18z trends south.

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:30 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Robert at American:

European run shifted south and a couple hours slower with the surface storm, and sped up the high pressure wedging down the Apps. I don't know if its right, its against the majority, and to be splitting that 6 hour window is crucial as I mentioned on my page. It literally makes a huge difference on P-types. If that run is correct, most of northern NC will get a nice snowfall (not sure about accumulations as its a lot of daytime event), but snow falling atleast, and probably a good snowstorm for Hickory, Winston and Greensboro and maybe eventually RDU and northeast NC night time since it appears to wrap up. In fact northeast NC may have the benefit of darkness and a steepening low pressure , so wouldnt' be surprised at something major coastal Va, NC.
Same for TN and southern KY, southern VA as the cold arrives on both sides of the Apps 6 hours earlier on this run. Definitely more Wintery look and supressed. This run doesn't go into West Va or central Va much. We'll see if 18z trends south.

I'm loving the trends on this system. It seems like everything is just lining up left and right the closer we get. Usually, its the other way around, but not with this one it seems. Maybe by tomorrow we are talking Winter Storm lol.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:32 pm

I'd feel better if the NAM and GFS were more on our side here in east TN. But, I'll take the Doc any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

by **Toot** 2012-02-17, 1:34 pm

it looks like this will be my final call also

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 14 357fyx0

sorry for the small text.

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:35 pm

Stovepipe wrote:I'd feel better if the NAM and GFS were more on our side here in east TN. But, I'll take the Doc any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Its all about the trends though. Those models, while not great, still showed snow for us. And I think we're going to see them start to come around little by little. I read somewhere that they had shifted a little bit south (not as much as Euro) of where they were before. I think 0z tonight will be great.

But hell, what do I know??

And when are we going into SWM??

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:36 pm

Tennesseewx is saying that the Euro is drier than last nights. Any truth to this?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:45 pm

This dude at American gets the Post Of The Day award:

Just trying to keep it realistic for everyone. Yes the mountains could do well with this setup, but remember the precip will be during the day, the soil temps are high, the sun angle is high, and most importantly the EURO is not in line with GFS and NAM
. The EURO is a great mid-llong range model, but short range not so much.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 14 Joker

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:49 pm

Stovepipe wrote:This dude at American gets the Post Of The Day award:

Just trying to keep it realistic for everyone. Yes the mountains could do well with this setup, but remember the precip will be during the day, the soil temps are high, the sun angle is high, and most importantly the EURO is not in line with GFS and NAM
. The EURO is a great mid-llong range model, but short range not so much.

Why are you giving him the Post of the Day Award lol?? Couldn't you find someone else to give that award to who was more optimistic about the system? Hope you're being sarcastic in some way.

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-17, 1:50 pm

Yea, thats why I just dont feel this to be a big threat. But it probably will be this years biggest threat of getting any snow at all. Id say 1-3inches in northern Tennessee into Kentucky and maybe 2-4inch swath in Kentucky and on the mountain areas. Further into Virginia maybe more of a 4-8inch range there. Main thing that will kill our acumulations will be warm air temps (32+), warm ground temps (32+) and the fact that this will be during the daylight hours for the most part and that we have a high sun angle. Just be happy to get 1-3inches dont expect more but know that theres a slim chance that we might get more but odds are really against us Imo.

Tom, Post of the day award shouldn't go to someone who just says were going to get a foot of snow or tells only 1 side of the story. I feel that post is a good post but idk he might be saying it is in a sarcastic way but imo hes not saying nothing that aint the case.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 1:52 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:Yea, thats why I just dont feel this to be a big threat. But it probably will be this years biggest threat of getting any snow at all. Id say 1-3inches in northern Tennessee into Kentucky and maybe 2-4inch swath in kentucky and on the mountain areas. Further into Virginia maybe more of a 4-8inch range there. Main thing that will kill our acumulations will be warm air temps (32+), warm ground temps (32+) and the fact that this will be during the daylight hours for the most part and that we have a high sun angle. Just be happy to get 1-3inches dont expect more but know that theres a slim chance that we might get more but odds are really against us Imo.

The sun angle. The sun angle? You are seriously worried about the sun angle of all things?

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:54 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
mmm...eggs wrote:Yea, thats why I just dont feel this to be a big threat. But it probably will be this years biggest threat of getting any snow at all. Id say 1-3inches in northern Tennessee into Kentucky and maybe 2-4inch swath in kentucky and on the mountain areas. Further into Virginia maybe more of a 4-8inch range there. Main thing that will kill our acumulations will be warm air temps (32+), warm ground temps (32+) and the fact that this will be during the daylight hours for the most part and that we have a high sun angle. Just be happy to get 1-3inches dont expect more but know that theres a slim chance that we might get more but odds are really against us Imo.

The sun angle. The sun angle? You are seriously worried about the sun angle of all things?

Sun angle?? Sun ANGLE?? I'm talking about winning the cold air, not going into the SUN ANGLE Playoffs!!!

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-17, 1:55 pm

Yes not only that but just everything ground temps, air temps I mean were in the mid 50s atm and was 60 yesterday and its sunny and temps aint going lower then 32 till after the event. Atleast for middle Tennessee. I guess we will see but I just wouldn't go out and say were going to get a big snow 4-8inches like some people. We will get snow But 1-3inches looks to be all middle Tennessee gets period..

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 1:55 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:Yea, thats why I just dont feel this to be a big threat. But it probably will be this years biggest threat of getting any snow at all. Id say 1-3inches in northern Tennessee into Kentucky and maybe 2-4inch swath in Kentucky and on the mountain areas. Further into Virginia maybe more of a 4-8inch range there. Main thing that will kill our acumulations will be warm air temps (32+), warm ground temps (32+) and the fact that this will be during the daylight hours for the most part and that we have a high sun angle. Just be happy to get 1-3inches dont expect more but know that theres a slim chance that we might get more but odds are really against us Imo.

Tom, Post of the day award shouldn't go to someone who just says were going to get a foot of snow or tells only 1 side of the story. I feel that post is a good post but idk he might be saying it is in a sarcastic way but imo hes not saying nothing that aint the case.

Well okay, I'll find a realistic pessimistic post somewhere and give it a golden prize for being real. Can't we think optimistically about things instead of pessimistic for once??

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-17, 2:02 pm

Yea thats fine to take some of both sides and find a medium. But not just taking the high ends of things and discarding everything else. Thats all Im doing and I know I could be wrong (More then likely I am). Im just saying what I have been seeing and then what I have been hearing. All I see is rain moving in and temps being above freezing so Im like ok just rain. But then I hear about dynamic cooling and all of that being a factor and since we will be close anyways that it will give us snow. Then I hear people talking about 8inches of snow on other sites and everyone agreeing but I mean really 8inches?... I just have a real hard time seeing the ground take that. I have seen it snow at 20 and it not stick. I understand this will be heavy snow and what not and not saying it wont happen thats why im saying 1-3inch's not just snow in the air.
I guess we will see Sunday what happen's and I really hope I am wrong and we get 8inches that would make me happy.

by **Homemommy** 2012-02-17, 2:03 pm

Tom wrote:
mmm...eggs wrote:Yea, thats why I just dont feel this to be a big threat. But it probably will be this years biggest threat of getting any snow at all. Id say 1-3inches in northern Tennessee into Kentucky and maybe 2-4inch swath in Kentucky and on the mountain areas. Further into Virginia maybe more of a 4-8inch range there. Main thing that will kill our acumulations will be warm air temps (32+), warm ground temps (32+) and the fact that this will be during the daylight hours for the most part and that we have a high sun angle. Just be happy to get 1-3inches dont expect more but know that theres a slim chance that we might get more but odds are really against us Imo.

Tom, Post of the day award shouldn't go to someone who just says were going to get a foot of snow or tells only 1 side of the story. I feel that post is a good post but idk he might be saying it is in a sarcastic way but imo hes not saying nothing that aint the case.

Well okay, I'll find a realistic pessimistic post somewhere and give it a golden prize for being real. Can't we think optimistically about things instead of pessimistic for once??

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 14 Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSzRCUf9KjRn28QHPgr88jFyXm6b-szXcrhokBCEkyHwyc1oi9S

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-17, 2:06 pm

So yall wouldnt take 1-3inches? Omg.. I would definitely take that.. How much snow do yall think we will get from this?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 2:08 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:Yea thats fine to take some of both sides and find a medium. But not just taking the high ends of things and discarding everything else. Thats all Im doing and I know I could be wrong (More then likely I am). Im just saying what I have been seeing and then what I have been hearing. All I see is rain moving in and temps being above freezing so Im like ok just rain. But then I hear about dynamic cooling and all of that being a factor and since we will be close anyways that it will give us snow. Then I hear people talking about 8inches of snow on other sites and everyone agreeing but I mean really 8inches?... I just have a real hard time seeing the ground take that. I have seen it snow at 20 and it not stick. I understand this will be heavy snow and what not and not saying it wont happen thats why im saying 1-3inch's not just snow in the air.
I guess we will see Sunday what happen's and I really hope I am wrong and we get 8inches that would make me happy.

Nothing wrong at all about being cautious about expectations with this storm. There is plenty that could go wrong and screw us on this, warm air being one of the primary concerns. But ground temps, and especially sun angle should be the least of our worries. Get me some moderate to heavy snow falling and I'll take my chances on those two variables.

Oh and who the hell is forecasting 8 inches in TN?

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 14 Oiu8

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 14 Oiu8

by **Homemommy** 2012-02-17, 2:10 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:So yall wouldnt take 1-3inches? Omg.. I would definitely take that.. How much snow do yall think we will get from this?

What? Haven't you heard? This storm has been prophesied!! HUGE snowstorm with hundred and ninety hour winds!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 2:10 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:So yall wouldnt take 1-3inches? Omg.. I would definitely take that.. How much snow do yall think we will get from this?

I posted my thoughts in a call map. I think a trace to 2 inches is safe for a large part of the state, some areas north of 40 might manage up to 4, especially in the NE.