*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

I just love the way MRX is totally ignoring the majority of guidance

Toot wrote:I just love the way MRX is totally ignoring the majority of guidance

They will come in at the last second with something for higher elevations lol.

Toot wrote:I just love the way MRX is totally ignoring the majority of guidance

Seriously though, what are they basing their current forecast off of?? All guidance I've seen/heard of is saying that it will be a solid event, which is a great event in this type of Winter.

Tom wrote:
Seriously though, what are they basing their current forecast off of??

This winter in general I guess

Toot wrote:

Tom wrote:
Seriously though, what are they basing their current forecast off of??

This winter in general I guess

True that lol

stronger colder and north at 54 of the NAM

I was making an early call for my blog but havent done the writeup yet to go with this graphic due me being pretty busy this week. This will probably change a little... but I think we have a decent idea at this point.

Here's the sneak peak



sorry for the small text..im gonna have to fix that

sweet baby jesus the NAM...wow

Gonna be some flooding with that!

Looks good to me at hour 69!

its way north though, apps runner

Very curious to see the snowfall map for that one. Seems like several hours of good cold qpf.

whens most of the snow going to fall Sat night/Sun morning?

Seems like Sunday afternoon and evening for us Conner.

JKL..Just north of MRX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-180015-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
410 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS AN INCREASINGLY LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THAT
WOULD BRING THE SNOWS...AND THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY AFFECT SNOW
AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WET...HEAVY SNOW
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

not a bad run on the oz nam for west tn. along 140 north.

The NAM is horrible for middle and east tennessee.

I'll take the thermal profile... but the deform band pretty much disappears so there's no snow south and east of clarksville.

The valley is insane warm sunday afternoon

Ouch, yes that temp map is ugly.

holy warm nose!! wow!

The storm track is more north than east this run, which dry slots the hell out of middle tennessee, despite our surface temps being awesome all day, and it keeps you guys in the warm sector til all the precip is gone.

Hopefully the nam is on drugs with the low pressure track. I guess we'll know here shortly.

Its the NAM in its extended which swings wildly from run to run but just for good measure it doesnt keep east TN in the warm sector until all the precip is gone

Hr 72

Eh... hope it wobbles back.

Soundings at milling ton (just north of Memphis) - thunder snow. 9 inches. I shityou not


42 02/18 18Z   49     42      43       8    0.04  0.00    548    562   -0.5 -15.1 1017 100 -RA   044OVC352    0.0    9.2
  45 02/18 21Z   46     43      53      12    0.24  0.00    549    561    2.9 -14.8 1014 100 RA    065OVC339    0.0    4.6
  48 02/19 00Z   46     44      46      12    0.18  0.00    550    560    2.9 -15.9 1011 100 RA    046OVC251    0.0    7.9
  51 02/19 03Z   46     44      48      18    0.10  0.00    551    558    2.9 -16.3 1008 100       037OVC100    0.0   14.8
  54 02/19 06Z   43     42      16      20    0.17  0.02    548    553    2.1 -18.4 1005 100 -TSRA 008OVC207    0.0    3.0
  57 02/19 09Z   34     33       1      24    0.46  0.02    543    548   -1.1 -19.1 1006 100 TSSN  002OVC182    5.2    0.3
  60 02/19 12Z   32     32     358      18    0.36  0.00    540    547   -0.7 -17.9 1009 100 SN    001OVC209    3.6    3.0
  63 02/19 15Z   33     31     338      17    0.03  0.00    537    549   -1.8 -19.8 1014 100       000OVC075    0.0    8.4

Hoping for a southern trend.

Either the text or twister data really off. Bna text data

 NAM Model Run:  0Z 17FEB 2012
  HR Valid      2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
                         Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
   0 02/17 00Z   46     43     330       5    0.00  0.00    549    567    2.8 -17.4 1021  33       139SCT213    0.0   15.0
   3 02/17 03Z   40     39     326       6    0.00  0.00    547    566    2.6 -17.7 1023  45       314SCT325    0.0   15.0
   6 02/17 06Z   37     36     327       5    0.00  0.00    546    565    2.0 -19.1 1024  27       012SCT072    0.0   15.1
   9 02/17 09Z   34     33       8       6    0.00  0.00    544    563    2.1 -20.0 1023   9       180FEW189    0.0   16.3
  12 02/17 12Z   30     30      27       5    0.00  0.00    543    563    2.4 -20.7 1024  12       077FEW085    0.0    6.6
  15 02/17 15Z   43     35      65       9    0.00  0.00    543    563    3.1 -21.0 1024  15       132FEW132    0.0   15.1
  18 02/17 18Z   51     33      72       5    0.00  0.00    543    562    2.6 -21.1 1023   7       276FEW289    0.0   15.1
  21 02/17 21Z   54     34      42       2    0.00  0.00    544    562    2.3 -20.8 1022  76       220BKN255    0.0   15.0
  24 02/18 00Z   48     33      46       4    0.00  0.00    544    562    2.8 -20.0 1022  53       388BKN388    0.0   15.1
  27 02/18 03Z   42     32      71       4    0.00  0.00    544    563    3.5 -19.1 1022   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
  30 02/18 06Z   38     30     102       5    0.00  0.00    545    563    4.3 -19.2 1021   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
  33 02/18 09Z   35     29      91       4    0.00  0.00    546    562    5.1 -18.2 1019  16       164FEW193    0.0   15.0
  36 02/18 12Z   37     31      51       3    0.00  0.00    545    562    4.2 -18.2 1020  57       096BKN205    0.0   15.0
  39 02/18 15Z   49     39      28       3    0.00  0.00    545    562    4.8 -18.6 1020 100       102OVC303    0.0   15.1
  42 02/18 18Z   56     37      72       5    0.00  0.00    546    561    4.8 -17.1 1017 100       166OVC351    0.0   15.0
  45 02/18 21Z   56     38      45       9    0.00  0.00    547    559    3.9 -16.8 1014 100       159OVC319    0.0   15.2
  48 02/19 00Z   50     41      37       7    0.00  0.00    548    560    1.6 -15.9 1014 100 -RA   066OVC296    0.0   13.7
  51 02/19 03Z   45     40      53      14    0.05  0.00    549    560    2.0 -16.8 1013 100 -RA   044OVC321    0.0    8.7
  54 02/19 06Z   40     38      56      19    0.23  0.00    549    557    1.9 -15.8 1009 100 -RA   024OVC178    0.0   10.0
  57 02/19 09Z   38     36      42      19    0.09  0.00    548    553    1.9 -17.4 1005 100 -RA   010OVC185    0.0    9.4
  60 02/19 12Z   34     32      31      22    0.18  0.02    544    548    0.7 -19.9 1005 100 -TSRA 007OVC214    0.0    1.0
  63 02/19 15Z   29     28      16      21    0.36  0.00    540    546   -1.3 -20.5 1007 100 SN    007OVC177    3.7    0.0
  66 02/19 18Z   29     28     358      19    0.22  0.00    537    545   -3.2 -19.4 1010 100 -SN   006OVC282    2.2    1.0
  69 02/19 21Z   30     28     340      18    0.06  0.00    533    545   -6.4 -20.8 1014 100 -SN   006OVC102    0.6    1.2
  72 02/20 00Z   30     28     344      14    0.03  0.00    531    546   -8.2 -22.8 1019 100 -SN   002OVC185    0.3    3.5