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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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Tennessee Weather Spot :: Weather Discussion :: Winter Weather

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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie 2012-02-16, 10:38 pm

That's almost 7 inches at Nashville with surface temps in the 20s if I'm reading that correctly.

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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 10:41 pm

Where are you getting your text data mundie? Here is the cobb I have for BNA:

Code:
StnID: kbna    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0      Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT  Ptype  SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF  S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
120217/0100Z  1  32006KT  49.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0200Z  2  34005KT  47.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0300Z  3  33006KT  45.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0400Z  4  35005KT  44.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0500Z  5  36004KT  42.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0600Z  6  35004KT  41.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120217/0700Z  7  36004KT  41.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0800Z  8  01004KT  40.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/0900Z  9  01005KT  38.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1000Z  10  01005KT  36.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1100Z  11  01005KT  34.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1200Z  12  02005KT  32.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120217/1300Z  13  03005KT  33.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1400Z  14  05006KT  37.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1500Z  15  06007KT  43.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1600Z  16  07007KT  46.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1700Z  17  07007KT  50.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/1800Z  18  07005KT  52.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120217/1900Z  19  07003KT  54.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/2000Z  20  VRB01KT  55.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/2100Z  21  VRB01KT  56.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/2200Z  22  01003KT  55.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120217/2300Z  23  01003KT  54.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0000Z  24  03003KT  53.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120218/0100Z  25  04003KT  51.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0200Z  26  04003KT  49.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0300Z  27  04003KT  47.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0400Z  28  05003KT  46.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0500Z  29  07003KT  44.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0600Z  30  08003KT  43.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120218/0700Z  31  08003KT  41.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0800Z  32  07003KT  39.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/0900Z  33  VRB02KT  38.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1000Z  34  VRB02KT  38.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1100Z  35  VRB02KT  38.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1200Z  36  04003KT  38.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120218/1300Z  37  03003KT  38.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1400Z  38  05003KT  43.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1500Z  39  03003KT  47.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1600Z  40  05004KT  51.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1700Z  41  05005KT  56.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/1800Z  42  08005KT  57.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120218/1900Z  43  07006KT  58.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/2000Z  44  06006KT  59.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/2100Z  45  09006KT  58.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120218/2200Z  46  10004KT  54.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100
120218/2300Z  47  07003KT  51.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
120219/0000Z  48  04005KT  50.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120219/0100Z  49  06009KT  49.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33    0|  0|100
120219/0200Z  50  05010KT  48.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42    0|  0|100
120219/0300Z  51  05010KT  48.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54    0|  0|100
120219/0400Z  52  04013KT  47.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69    0|  0|100
120219/0500Z  53  06014KT  46.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74    0|  0|100
120219/0600Z  54  06013KT  45.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120219/0700Z  55  06013KT  45.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81    0|  0|100
120219/0800Z  56  05013KT  44.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83    0|  0|100
120219/0900Z  57  04014KT  43.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86    0|  0|100
120219/1000Z  58  04014KT  42.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.94    0|  0|100
120219/1100Z  59  03015KT  41.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98    0|  0|100
120219/1200Z  60  03017KT  39.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120219/1300Z  61  02016KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09    0|  0|100
120219/1400Z  62  01018KT  35.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13    0|  0|100
120219/1500Z  63  01018KT  33.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16    0|  0|100
120219/1600Z  64  36018KT  33.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20  84|  0| 16
120219/1700Z  65  35018KT  32.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21  87|  0| 13
120219/1800Z  66  35017KT  33.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22  84|  0| 16
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120219/1900Z  67  34017KT  33.4F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.23    0|  0|100
120219/2000Z  68  34017KT  33.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24  79|  0| 21
120219/2100Z  69  33017KT  34.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.25  78|  0| 22
120219/2200Z  70  34016KT  33.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.25  81|  0| 19
120219/2300Z  71  34015KT  32.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26  85|  0| 15
120220/0000Z  72  34013KT  32.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120220/0100Z  73  35012KT  32.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26    0|  0|  0
120220/0200Z  74  34010KT  31.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26    0|  0|  0
120220/0300Z  75  33009KT  31.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26    0|  0|  0
120220/0400Z  76  32007KT  30.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/0500Z  77  32007KT  30.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/0600Z  78  33007KT  30.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120220/0700Z  79  33006KT  29.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/0800Z  80  35006KT  29.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/0900Z  81  01006KT  28.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/1000Z  82  02006KT  28.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/1100Z  83  03006KT  28.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
120220/1200Z  84  04007KT  27.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
============================================================================================================================


From: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbna.dat
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
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Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 10:44 pm

lmao...at the southern trend pic lmao
Toot
Toot
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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-16, 10:44 pm

curt just posted it over tn wx. yep, blew my mind... i knew it was a good run for most of west tn... yes, there will be thunder snow in places, cuase its a dynamic system.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 10:46 pm

Weird that that text data does not match up at all with Iowa State's. I'm showing barely an inch at BNA and like .7 at TYS.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 Vdzn9t


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Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 10:48 pm

That text data doesnt match up with the actual graphics of the NAM...lol
people are gonna be batshit crazy by the time saturday gets here...this thread has been pinned hurry
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-16, 10:51 pm

evry freaking forum is goin ape shit

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Post by jmundie 2012-02-16, 10:54 pm

It's not Cobb. I think it's direct from the model. I'm not sure.

Weird thing is, bna has an inch and ohx (which I posted ) has 7. They are maybe 6 miles apart. Maybe.

Maybe that data is flaw or maybe it's just so borderline. I don't know.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 10:54 pm

Somebody in a lab somewhere is playing a joke on the weenies. No way that is the correct text data lol.

popcorn
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Post by ballpark 2012-02-16, 11:00 pm


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Post by Dyersburg Weather 2012-02-16, 11:01 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Somebody in a lab somewhere is playing a joke on the weenies. No way that is the correct text data lol.

popcorn

Yep. Someone said watch this. lol! evl
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-16, 11:02 pm

looks like good six hours of good qpf around i 40 corridor, with 850 s close... its going to be a very wet snow.

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Post by John1122 2012-02-16, 11:03 pm

GFS looks to be further South and East with the LP through 48 hours. A small bit down in LA will make a big difference where it ends up when it's coming North.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 11:10 pm

Better track, let's see if she can pull down some cold air.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 Gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by ballpark 2012-02-16, 11:11 pm

All the Snow has went North to KY on the GFS. Well onto the Euro. At least we got something to watch.

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Post by John1122 2012-02-16, 11:11 pm

Looks like a Kentucky special on the 0z GFS. Huffman's accumulation maps seem to line up almost literally along the border.

Looks like the LP track is a bit south of the NAM track but not by a whole lot.

I will be very surprised if we get a snow event out of this with the way winter has gone, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel until probably the 12z models Saturday if we keep with the borderline type solutions.

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Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 11:14 pm

Here are the 18z ensembles at hr 66 72 and 78 FWIW


*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 F66
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 F72
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 F78
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Post by John1122 2012-02-16, 11:16 pm

If only that high over Wisconsin was a slight bit stronger. Still, that pretty much looks like a perfect snow set up for here. Strong LP from Central GA to SC and a HP from Wisconsin to Michigan. It just seems like a near perfect track.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 11:16 pm

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 0psXM

facepalm
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Post by John1122 2012-02-16, 11:18 pm

Maybe the ole SE trend will come to pass for us!

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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-16, 11:19 pm

i really like the 0z gfs for west tn. also. nice trend for jackson to dyersburg. dyersburg weather. were are you man?

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 11:20 pm

If the Euro holds serve tonight, I'm going to remain optimistic for more than a wet dusting.
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Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 11:22 pm

HPC guidance
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 99fwbgus

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 9jhwbgfnl_conus
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Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 11:27 pm

CPC

Heavy snow in upper east TN...were sittin pretty at this point IMO

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 11 Hazards_d3_7_contours

Ima go post this on MRX's FB page evl


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Post by John1122 2012-02-16, 11:29 pm

I wish it'd be about 75-100 miles South of that HPC guidance.

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