*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Toot wrote:CPC

Heavy snow in upper east TN...were sittin pretty at this point IMO



Ima go post this on MRX's FB page

On that it looks more like maybe areas like Mountain City would be sitting pretty while the rest of the state gets washed out.

From what I'm seeing the sweet spot for now is Jackson, KY to Bluefield. WV to central VA.

toot...were sitting pretty? maybe you, but most of us, at least in the valley, are screwed

Let's head to Snow Shoe Mtn. this weekend. Whose with me?

Reb...what else can I tell you I have posted my thoughts and early call map... HPC and CPC guidance support them...I cant help it if people live and die by the nam in its long range...When the euro has been EVER so consistent.

Yes NE TN will be the sweet spot...BUT YES everyone looks to get some snow IMO

From reading AMX, the Canadian went north. Still further south than the GFS/NAM. UKMET also went north.

there is going to be a heavy deform band setting up some were east of the miss. river. and it should move east. north east.

John1122 wrote:From reading AMX, the Canadian went north. Still further south than the GFS/NAM. UKMET also went north.

yep, just saw that, its going to get very interesting. the doc is next... but its nap time for me... good trends tonight yall

John1122 wrote:From reading AMX, the Canadian went north. Still further south than the GFS/NAM. UKMET also went north.

I'm getting conflicting reports on both of those John. Anyone have some readable CMC maps yet?

John1122 wrote:From reading AMX, the Canadian went north. Still further south than the GFS/NAM. UKMET also went north.

Its actually south of where it was at 12 z

12z


0z Notice the low is near the Fl/GA border

Toot wrote:HPC guidance

Man HPC maps still look good to me for folks in northern MiddleTN. I'll take my chances with a 1004MB low taking that path. As others have said, if that High would build in just a bit we'd have a big'un on our hands. Someone on the northern flank of this storm is going to get a good thump. Nashville is overdue for one of these.

John1122 wrote:

On that it looks more like maybe areas like Mountain City would be sitting pretty while the rest of the state gets washed out.

From what I'm seeing the sweet spot for now is Jackson, KY to Bluefield. WV to central VA.

Thats just a heavy snow hazard....if there is heavy snow in NE TN with this system there will be lighter snow in the valley and plateau...and it will probably be accumulating snow with the strong cold advection that this low will provide. Has anyone not noticed the negative tilt of the upper level energy?

snowdog wrote:

Man HPC maps still look good to me for folks in northern MiddleTN. I'll take my chances with a 1004MB low taking that path. As others have said, if that High would build in just a bit we'd have a big'un on our hands. Someone on the northern flank of this storm is going to get a good thump. Nashville is overdue for one of these.

Agreed Snowdog...Someone in Northern TN will get a thumping I think...hope you get a bunch too.




I will be a back in a few minutes to talk a little more about this system before I go to bed.

tennessee storm09 wrote:i really like the 0z gfs for west tn. also. nice trend for jackson to dyersburg. dyersburg weather. were are you man?

I am here. Trying to figure out if I should be excited, mad , nervous , depressed . happy , ect , ect . I have seen everything tonight from I will have a chance for thundersnow to absolutely nothing but I do like the deformation band that i am seeing.

UKMET actually looks pretty good, in the 850s temp department at least. Can't stay up for the Euro tonight... too tired. When I get up in the morning though I expect to see multiple pictures posted of the Mother of God and Sweet Jesus variety.

Here is the track of the 0z CMC...its south of last nights 0z and todays 12z



That track also agrees more with HPC guidance and the euro/UKmet. That is a classic track for a TN snowstorm. Everything seems to be falling into place for a nice winter event for alot of places.

The euro is nearly the same as it was at 12z... accumulated snowfall at wx underground looks very similar to the 12z...its nice for the whole state....The one difference between this run and todays 12z is that this one IS colder. Good night!

The deform band does this and it's an East Tennessee snow party.

The change over line seems to pretty much work it's way across the state generally north of 40.



3 hours later it's working towards Nashville.



4 hours later it's down to about the 1st tier of counties along the border, ie Fentress, Scott, Campbell, Claiborne, Hawkins etc. Probably been snowing in most of these counties for about 2 hours by this time.



2 hours later the heavy stuff is starting to wind down in Nashville, it's switched to frozen from 40 north or so in East Tennessee.



2 hours later, still moderate to heavy frozen precip from 40 north.



5 hours later, still light to moderate snow across most of East Tennessee.

But much like the GFS and NAM that didn't look that great for a lot of us, this is one run of one model.

And from Georgia WX on American regarding the Euro, much as Toot pointed out about it.

0Z Doc says major snow for you much of TN including Nashville with ~5" there.

Edit: 2-4" northern NC.

Right now it's the American models vs the Euro/Canadian models. We are better at everything else, lets just let their computer weather models be better this time.

After further looking at some Euro accum maps, pretty much everyone would do well. I'd say North of 40 from Clarksville to Nashville to the Eastern edge of the Plateau 4-8 wouldn't be a bad call. The rest of the state probably 2-4 wouldn't be that far off either.

John1122 wrote:After further looking at some Euro accum maps, pretty much everyone would do well. I'd say North of 40 from Clarksville to Nashville to the Eastern edge of the Plateau 4-8 wouldn't be a bad call. The rest of the state probably 2-4 wouldn't be that far off either.

Ahhh, John I am liking your thinking there young fellow.

JKL said they are likely to issue Winter Storm Watches after the next set of model runs come in, provided of course there isn't radical change.

MRX says "snow...what snow??"

06z NAM trended a bit colder/south with it's snow accumulations.

It's now a 40 north/plateau west storm vs the 00z which was a Kentucky and north storm.

00z NAM snowfall on Twister.



06z NAM map.

This is from Huffmans for the 06z NAM.

Now I can't be sure of MRX's reasoning for warming temps for my area and still going with all rain, but I guess they have it. They've not released their AFD yet.

But with this run of the NAM the Euro, Canadian and now it are all showing 2-6 inches for parts of their CWA, especially SW VA.