Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Well that is what it should be lol. That Stationary Front has been down in Florida for about 3 days lol.

Might be some strong to severe storms today in the afternoon. Bring it.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
541 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-171045-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
541 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ON
SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

I actually woke up to almost a quarter inch of rain in the gauge this morning. Pleasantly surprised. Hopefully, the area will see more scattered convection today, as the ground is starting to get pretty dry. I've even noticed cracks in the soil..so we do need a good soaking.

MRX Short term AFD:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SIMILAR AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH OUTFLOW FROM ITS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL MENTION SCATTEREDCONVECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...SO WILL PLAN TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS FOR TEMPS...NAM AND GFS MAXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM MINS FOR TONIGHT...WHICH HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER LATELY.

WxFreak wrote:MRX Short term AFD:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SIMILAR AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH OUTFLOW FROM ITS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL MENTION SCATTEREDCONVECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...SO WILL PLAN TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS FOR TEMPS...NAM AND GFS MAXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM MINS FOR TONIGHT...WHICH HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER LATELY.

hope yall do get some good rain my east tn friends... cause over here in west tn, the upper level ridge is fixing to really flex its muscles... causing us to flirt with the century mark for the first time this summer period by next weekend

I seriously doubt anybody in the state sees triple digits in the next two weeks. Time and time again ive seen these high temps advertised by guidance... only to be lowered on a daily basis as we get closer to the particular timeframe. Lower pressures seem to be the name of the game this summer...the old ridge just cant seem to hold on. Everytime it tries to set up... a GL's troff slides in and kicks its ass

It looks as if by late this week, or by the weekend, a pretty good push of cool air heads across the Great Lakes area, and a cold front comes south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. How far south this front goes is in question, but at the very least it looks like it will push the HP further south, and the front may stall somewhere in the TN valley area. If this happens, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will probably occur and would be most welcome.

I dont see how any strong or severe storms get can organized with this mornings rain. The air mass seems pretty stable here in Morristown. I have seen some garden variety storms being plotted by some of the shorter range models this evening.

And just as I say that...the sun pops out. Bring them strong storms on!!

30% chance of storms most areas this evening. Radar unimpressive at moment. MRX AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM OVER NRN MIDDLE TN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. THIS AREA IS WHERE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY (CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG). CAN`T ARGUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ESE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED PREVIOUS GRIDS QUITE CLOSE FOR TONIGHT. SEEMS BEST TO GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE COOLER GFS MOS MINS...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL OVER PAST FEW NIGHTS.

Heat index values will be on the rise this week with the slight heatwave expected. Index values of over a 100 are predicted by the HPC in the next few days in some areas of the state. With widespread 100+ values further down into Dixie

It looks as if the previously mentioned front makes a run at us by late week, before stalling out around the KY/TN border and heading back north as a warm front on Sunday, as the heat ridge flexes its muscles. Afterwards, it appears the front may push back south as a stronger push of cooler air comes at us. We’ll see how that plays out, but at the very least let’s hope some decent thunderstorms visit the area by Thursday/Friday, as rain will be sorely needed after the heat of this week.

From MRX Long-term AFD:

DESPITE THE WARM CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY THIS WEEK GIVEN THE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT UNDER THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH SOME APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THUS...ISOLATED/SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTIONABLE POPS ALONG THE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/ EVENING...BEFORE EXPANDING THEM AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FAIRLY GOOD QPF SIGNALS SEEN WITH THE MODELS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW-END CHANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SATURDAY GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE DRY...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK

BULLETIN
BORING WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
10:00 PM EST TUE JUN 18 2012

TOOTS WEATHER SERVICE IN TENNESSEE HAS ISSUED A

* BORING WX WATCH FOR...
EVERYWHERE IN EAST TN..EVERYWHERE IN WEST TN..EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL TN

* UNTIL JUNE 22ND.

* AT 10:00PM EST TUE JUN 18 2012 ...GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALSO... THE JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO BE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS LAME WEATHER PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAJOR BOREDOM IN THE WX DEPARTMENT.

IN ADDITION TO BOREDOM...THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWELTERING HEAT... THAT WAY YOU CAN SWELTER WHILE BEING BORED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRINK PLENTY OF BEER. KEEP YOURSELF OCCUPIED AND FREE OF ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGHTS OF THAT NATURE WILL ONLY LEAD TO DISAPPOINTMENT

$$

TOOT

Toot wrote:BULLETIN
BORING WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
10:00 PM EST TUE JUN 18 2012

TOOTS WEATHER SERVICE IN TENNESSEE HAS ISSUED A

* BORING WX WATCH FOR...
EVERWHERE IN EAST TN..EVERYWHERE IN WEST TN..EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL TN

* UNTIL JUNE 22ND.

* AT 10:00PM EST TUE JUN 18 2012 ...GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALSO... THE JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO BE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS LAME WEATHER PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAJOR BOREDOM IN THE WX DEPARTMENT.

IN ADDITION TO BOREDOM...THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWELTERING HEAT... THAT WAY YOU CAN SWELTER WHILE BEING BORED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRINK PLENTY OF BEER. KEEP YOURSELF OCCUPIED AND FREE OF ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGHTS OF THAT NATURE WILL ONLY LEAD TO DISAPPOINTMENT

$$

TOOT

to funny toot...lol. welcome to the heart of summer bro... we will flirt with the century mark here in west tenn. by this weekend

tennessee storm09 wrote: we will flirt with the century mark here in west tenn. by this weekend

No doubt Bruce...I still say nowhere in the state hits the century mark though

Summer doldrums are here. Right after the spring doldrums that followed the winter doldrums.

Everyone enjoy:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1027 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SUPPRESSED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. DON`T EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT VALLEY SO WILL TWEAK POPS BACK HERE A BIT. SHOULD BE RATHER WARM TODAY WITH POWERFUL SOLAR INSOLATION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE. LOW 90 DEGREE MAX TEMPS WILL DO FINE.

Took a quick look at sky late this morning. Noticed a few large cumulus developing toward the mountains. Also noticed that the cloud movement was from the east or southeast. At least if storms do pop in the high elevations, it looks like they will be heading westward toward the valley, instead of east into NC. This may help a few isolated areas in the foothills today with a brief shower or storm.

The EURO has a huge trough in the east around hour 168 not sure if it will play out that way.

Adam2014 wrote:The EURO has a huge trough in the east around hour 168 not sure if it will play out that way.

Yep..most of the other models have the troff also.. but the EURO and the GFS are pretty deep. This seems to be the same type of pattern that got us in the NW flow during the last major troff.

Whoever gets under the exact axis of this coming troff will see a few MCS's move along the NW flow like the last time. Then again this troff could be deeper than the last.. leaving the whole state east and north of the main track of future MCS's.

The exact location of where the troff axis sets up will be key to who see's the SVR action

Toot wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:The EURO has a huge trough in the east around hour 168 not sure if it will play out that way.

Yep..most of the other models have the troff also.. but the EURO and the GFS are pretty deep. This seems to be the same type of pattern that got us in the NW flow during the last major troff.

Whoever gets under the exact axis of this coming troff will see a few MCS's move along the NW flow like the last time. Then again this troff could be deeper than the last.. leaving the whole state east and north of the main track of future MCS's.

The exact location of where the troff axis sets up will be key to who see's the SVR action

yeah, good point toot... starting to noticed this also... good catch adam... lets see if the oz suits holds on to the trough... i need action... and i want it now

MRX Long Term AFD:

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS COLD FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS NORMALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TO EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL HINTS AT AN MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL HINTING AT ONE FOR MONDAY. SINCE THE MODELS ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF THESE SYSTEMS...WILL JUST MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

Even if we don't get any severe action, it does look cooler next week, especially if the trough is as deep as shown on some models.

On the other hand, I wouldn't mind keeping some of the heat/humidity if rain was the result. The topsoil is really drying out.

A look at that monster ridge out west next week and that lovely troff here in the east. Me likey this pattern that we are in

12z GFS