Presidents Day System

by **John1122** 2013-02-09, 12:35 am

President's Day Punisher.

Presidents Day System 00zgfs10

by **Toot** 2013-02-09, 1:12 am

John1122 wrote:President's Day Punisher.

Nice!! You need to start the thread for that one with particular title lmao

by **Toot** 2013-02-09, 1:32 am

This one could be more intense than the current blizzard going on right now. This particular system is being modeled very strong by the majority of guidance with eye opening negative tilt phasing. It drops down to 978Mb on the latest run of the GFS. Temperatures fall to near zero or below in parts of the TN Valley in wake of the system! SCREAMS POWERHOUSE!

It has the potential to lay a swath of accumulating snow down all the way from the DEEP south to the state of Maine!
Presidents Day System 2013020900_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192

Presidents Day System 2013020900_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192

Presidents Day System 529744_371394909634934_535851964_n

Presidents Day System 51484-project-h3avy-p1g-mother-god-super-troopers-jpg?dateline=1344388799

by **keithinala** 2013-02-09, 3:22 am

where did the temps near zero come from?

by **Toot** 2013-02-09, 3:33 am

keithinala wrote:where did the temps near zero come from?

by **keithinala** 2013-02-09, 4:14 am

Toot wrote:
keithinala wrote:where did the temps near zero come from?

awesome, thanks...it will stay around if that's right

by **keithinala** 2013-02-09, 4:23 am

how much does weatherbell cost?

by **Reb** 2013-02-09, 6:51 am

John, great name for this storm...looks like it could be a really nice storm for a lot of the SE. Lets start discussing this particular storm in this thread please and thank you.

by **Toot** 2013-02-09, 10:48 am

Thanks for starting this one Reb!! Its the best thing ive seen modeled since Adriana Lima!!
Presidents Day System 20cfb9de5f4911df8792000b2f3ed30f

Presidents Day System 20cfb9de5f4911df8792000b2f3ed30f

LOL..Seriously tho this has the potential to be Historic..yes...I said Historic! I just got around to looking at model data this morning and nearly all models are insane with this storm but the dgex is CRAZYTRAIN!!

This model is never correct but it has a chance of verifying with this excellent setup

Presidents Day System N12s2c

I will begin posting Hi Resolution graphics for this system in the member only section starting with the 12z runs. So.. if you're not a member you will have to join up to continue to see the good graphics like this

6zGFS snow accumulations for this system
Presidents Day System Httsm9

keithinala wrote:how much does weatherbell cost?

Around $200 a year.. give or take a few dollars Keith.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-09, 11:22 am

Well!!! just looking at the 12z run of GFS it's gone! Of course it sent the energy to the NE? Who knows I just got sick puke

which I know this is only one run but. The storm has shown for a couple of days!

by **ballpark** 2013-02-09, 11:34 am

I don't see how you can show all that moisture and just disappear. I think it is a bad run.

by **tom23** 2013-02-09, 11:49 am

Longggg road ahead... if we are gonna jump off the cliff or get sick over just one run of one model, then you may as well check yourself into a clinic somewhere to get some treatment done, because its gonna be a rollercoaster week of model watching with these two systems ahead.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-09, 11:58 am

Yeah! I'am on the the way to the clinic right now. LOL!!!!. I know it is one run of the flip flop. But it shows nothing! The energy split off to the north and way to far south! That is the models though! Maybe next run. beer

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-09, 12:23 pm

I'm not jumping yet because this one has looked better for me on the models for a week. It will be back.

by **ballpark** 2013-02-09, 1:55 pm

Can we get some pics of the 12z Euro?

by **tom23** 2013-02-09, 2:01 pm

Point is, if you follow models verbatim, run to run, then just be prepared for a flurry of mixed emotions. If something has consistently shown a major snowstorm for days, and then loses it, chances are the run was a bunked run. And if something has been shown for days to be just a very minor event and then goes to an all out snowstorm, don't be hyper about it until consistency is reached. Trust me folks. Its not worth being upset/happy/excited about a system just because of one or even two runs. That's why I don't post much in a weather thread, because I know just how borderline events are down here.

by **ballpark** 2013-02-09, 2:02 pm

tom23 wrote:Point is, if you follow models verbatim, run to run, then just be prepared for a flurry of mixed emotions. If something has consistently shown a major snowstorm for days, and then loses it, chances are the run was a bunked run. And if something has been shown for days to be just a very minor event and then goes to an all out snowstorm, don't be hyper about it until consistency is reached. Trust me folks. Its not worth being upset/happy/excited about a system just because of one or even two runs. That's why I don't post much in a weather thread, because I know just how borderline events are down here.

by **ballpark** 2013-02-09, 2:07 pm

Good point Tom. I think we just need to sit back and chill. It is hard not to get excited when the models were showing a huge storm.

by **tom23** 2013-02-09, 2:24 pm

ballpark wrote:Good point Tom. I think we just need to sit back and chill. It is hard not to get excited when the models were showing a huge storm.

Thanks. Just ask Toot. Lord knows I used to be the one on here and on other sites that used to be like "how much for my backyard" each and every model run. I used to be the one who would either harp major snowstorm with just a few runs, and then when a run would turn out bad for us, I would be the one to climb a cliff and jump off lol. So I've had my time of maturing for sure. I found that its best to take things as they come and be patient than to go through a bipolar-like state when following each and every single model verbatim. But to each his/her own.

by **jmundie** 2013-02-09, 2:35 pm

Here's a little learning for those of you new to all this

HEre's hour 156 of the 0z GFS

Presidents Day System Gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht

Note the closed 534 low pressure near newfoundland canada. That's what is called a 50/50 low. When there isn't a blocking high pressure in greenland, a low pressure in that vicinity can act like a block, and cause a trough to dig into the eastern part of the us. That's what happens on the 0z GFS and the slowed down flow allows the tough to dig towards texas and a negative tilt monster to form at hour 186

Presidents Day System Gfs_namer_186_500_vort_ht

Presidents Day System Gfs_namer_186_500_vort_ht

Now - lets look at the 12z GFS at hour 144 (same timeframe as the first image)

Presidents Day System Gfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht

Its almost identical - except - where is our 50/50 low? Well, it ends up getting absorbed into the broad trough up there because it never strengthened on wed. The low gets squashed by the northern stream.

Without a 50/50 low - by hour 174 - the same timeframe as shown in the second image above, we have a trough that looks similar, but is much further north and west. The flow stays progressive and we get a cold front and maybe some snow showers.

Presidents Day System Gfs_namer_174_500_vort_ht

Presidents Day System Gfs_namer_174_500_vort_ht

by **Toot** 2013-02-09, 2:50 pm

ballpark wrote:Can we get some pics of the 12z Euro?

12z Euro is holding energy back in the SW which screws up the whole model run. There is nothing noteworthy to post or I would

jmundie wrote:Here's a little learning for those of you new to all this

Nice post Mundie..Thanks Smile

by **Reb** 2013-02-09, 3:40 pm

toot how were ensembles on that shitty run?

by **Mrgolf** 2013-02-09, 3:44 pm

Toot, if jmundie is correct in his explaination of the storm around presidents day, i dont see how a winter event can develop esp if the northern stream crushes everything to bits. Euro is prolly holding energy back in sw b/c thats what its seeing with the northern branch being too dominant. I think, and this is strickly my opinion, its about time to write this one off guys. Not that i didnt warn u.

by **keithinala** 2013-02-09, 3:57 pm

Mrgolf wrote:Toot, if jmundie is correct in his explaination of the storm around presidents day, i dont see how a winter event can develop esp if the northern stream crushes everything to bits. Euro is prolly holding energy back in sw b/c thats what its seeing with the northern branch being too dominant. I think, and this is strickly my opinion, its about time to write this one off guys. Not that i didnt warn u.

Not at all. This is a great setup. Getting down because a model run or two didn't look great is no way to be.