Presidents Day System

Rob Williams of WJHL

pippinm wrote:Rob Williams of WJHL

I bolded the keywords in his post

Another update on this week's weather forecast...Wednesday's weather system still looks like it will give us rain that either changes to snow by afternoon or possibly just a rain snow mix.

Next weekend's system has changed significantly. Currently looks like we'll get fairly cold Friday through the weekend, but with no big storm system. Will keep you updated as we'll have lots to talk about during the week ahead.

He seems to be just saying what models currently show. I dont really see a post where he says "the storm is no longer a worry". So I take back what I said. Im sure he knows the potential here

the 12z gfs just cold n dry as a bone, trough isnt west enough to do us any good... and still the northern stream is to dominate... over all pattern looks pretty progressive still, whcih mean i bet the cold wont stay long either. we c

tennessee storm09 wrote:the 12z gfs just cold n dry as a bone, trough isnt west enough to do us any good... and still the northern stream is to dominate... over all pattern looks pretty progressive still, whcih mean i bet the cold wont stay long either. we c

Close to closing the book on Winter 2012/2013 personally speaking; once we get past the next two weeks the chances of getting anything meaningful is pretty small; perhaps next year; one has to keep hope alive, just speaking statistically, Middle TN, as most places in the South, are over due for an actual Winter Season.

My mistake on Rob Williams. I misread his comment, I'm sorry for that. This week should be interesting

tom23 wrote:Ken Weathers from WATE-TV just said that next weekend definitely has potential and that they'll be talking about it a lot this coming week.

When they start talking about it too much, that's when we get screwed. Happens 9 out of 10 times, guaran-fucking-teed. Have people running around like a bunch of idiots buying bread and milk as if they're going to be snowed in for a week or two. It's the surprise storms where we make out.

That's just the thing, better to have people over react on buying supplies before a major snow storm than to ignore it all together. Read up on the Blizzard of '93 and you'll see how a lot of people didn't believe it would happen and pretty much turned a deaf ear to the warnings of the meteorologists. No amount of hype or skepticism will change what the weather does, just our perceptions.

At any rate, I wonder who these people are that load up on milk and bread anyways. I've never met someone who over reacted, I just meet people who talk about people that over react lol.

I don't understand, this talk about the northern stream dominating and supressing making everything cold and dry. I see know real cold in the long range forecast. It just seems like our weather has become temperat sensitive. Real cold supressing our weather just hasn't been in the cards and I personaly don't see it here. If anything I worry about it not being cold enough.But again I'm far less knowledged than most on here, I'm just flustered.

If you look at the shot of cold air coming it reaches the gulf coast just about! Storms love to move along the edge of the cold and warm air. So this shot dives to far south so it will keep everything surpressed along the coast and ride ots. With the nw flow we may get some moisture to squeeze out some snowshowers! That will be about it. But if it can stall just south of us then it could be game on!! Still a week away! Look at the models on the first storm they cant get it under control! Think snow!!!!!!

dahrkdaiz wrote:That's just the thing, better to have people over react on buying supplies before a major snow storm than to ignore it all together. Read up on the Blizzard of '93 and you'll see how a lot of people didn't believe it would happen and pretty much turned a deaf ear to the warnings of the meteorologists. No amount of hype or skepticism will change what the weather does, just our perceptions.

At any rate, I wonder who these people are that load up on milk and bread anyways. I've never met someone who over reacted, I just meet people who talk about people that over react lol.

Concerning the Blizzard of '93, I was here... well actually living in Halls Crossroads at the time, but I experienced it. That beauty was a surprise; a lot stronger than was forecast. If I remember correctly, we were stuck inside for 3 to 4 days, but I made it to down town Halls and back with a Pinto by the 3rd or 4th day, LOL. There were people stuck everywhere, but I trucked right along. Maybe it's since I have lived around the U.S., and that I have learned how to drive on snow that all this panic makes me laugh. I know this, people up north don't clear-out a whole shelf of bread when it's gonna snow 2 to 4 inches.

As for the meeting someone panic buying milk and bread; I haven't meet one either, but on the other hand, I don't panic, so I'm never out when they stock-up. But I have seen the nearly empty shelves of bread the next day.

Also let me make this clear; I don't mean to insult anyone here. I'm just saying how it looks too me. If I knew there was going to be a major snow storm, yes, I would purchase anything I need for the next 3 to 4 days, but if I needed bread and milk, you'd see me with a half gallon of milk, and one loaf of bread.

dahrkdaiz wrote:No amount of hype or skepticism will change what the weather does, just our perceptions.

This is very true, but I have been watching the weather here for over 20 years, and believe me, I stick with 9 out of 10 times it's over hyped. I wish I was wrong, but it is what it is.

I don't see very much Cold air either. I am not buying Mid 20s is gone to surpress a storm all the way to the gulf.

On the bread and milk thing...we live in 2013, not 1813, lol. Any snowstorm around these parts is not going to cause us to be cut off from supplies for more than 3-5 days. Now, war, earthquakes, etc...might just do us in. worse yet, take down our computers, and we're toast!

Being a newby and learning from you guys, the only thing that I see that we are going to be punished by on Presidents day is this!



Average temp mind you

ballpark wrote:I don't see very much Cold air either. I am not buying Mid 20s is gone to surpress a storm all the way to the gulf.

I actually see a ton of cold air. It doesn't have to be below 0 cold to drive the stormtrack way south. I've not looked lately, but a day or two ago the GFS had 1 pm temps in the low teens across East Tennessee and mid teens across Middle and West Tennessee.

GFS want to bring some very cold air in here around the Friday time frame. With a weak system maybe Saturday. How cold not real sure. Watch it and see if it still there come Tuesday or Weds. Everybody know how the GFS works. Been burned many times from this model. But all signals are pointing to what the GFS is forecasting. NAO - AO - are some good signs of cold weather. Will see what takes place this week. Have a good night everyone. Got to caught some ZZZZZZZZZZZ.

juju wrote:Being a newby and learning from you guys, the only thing that I see that we are going to be punished by on Presidents day is this!



Average temp mind you

This is really about a couple of days before Presidents Day..and snow or not, Saturday is going to be very cold.

6z GFS says GAME ON BABYDOLL!

Reb wrote:6z GFS says GAME ON BABYDOLL!

Yep, back in the game. And how many had given up.

Sorry but seem we r always in game a week out.

secleveland wrote:Sorry but seem we r always in game a week out.

Nope, we are not, and it's not a week now, it's 4 1/2 /5 days

I hope we can get. The temps we need and the path we need.
With the snow cover up north it may help on temps.But i Only know what i have been taught on here lol

John1122 wrote:

ballpark wrote:I don't see very much Cold air either. I am not buying Mid 20s is gone to surpress a storm all the way to the gulf.

I actually see a ton of cold air. It doesn't have to be below 0 cold to drive the stormtrack way south. I've not looked lately, but a day or two ago the GFS had 1 pm temps in the low teens across East Tennessee and mid teens across Middle and West Tennessee.

TONIGHT
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph becoming northwest up to 5 mph after midnight.
TUESDAY
Partly sunny in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Light east winds.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Light northeast winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
WEDNESDAY
Cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning...then mostly cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. highs in the lower 50s.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. highs in the mid 40s.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 20 percent.
SATURDAY
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. highs in the upper 30s. Chance of snow 20 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. highs

John this what I am talking about. I would say it would trend colder once we get snow cover on the ground, this week end to the temps you our talking about. I am just happy the gfs woke back up.

secleveland wrote:I hope we can get. The temps we need and the path we need.
With the snow cover up north it may help on temps.But i Only know what i have been taught on here lol

Temps aren't the issue. Cold is coming, we just need a storm to meet up with it.

You cant get an accurate temperature forecast from the NWS past 48 hrs. Their hi and lo temps are based more on climatology than they are anything in the extended range. You have to factor in the longwave pattern for said timeframe. Example..if deep trough is controlling weather in the east for mid feb then temps are well below the nws progged hi and low. They will not adjust temps above or below climo until system gets within 72 hrs

CMC is wetter, and farther north with a low...http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html