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The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

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The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-26, 1:46 pm

The Polar Vortex looks like its gonna stick around for a minute causing several pieces of energy to cause multiple light snow events. Maybe even a more moderate to heavy event just after the new year!



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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-26, 7:59 pm

MRX starting to mention the snow word now too with this weekends gulf system

MRX wrote:
Code:
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DIVERGE ABOUT MID WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER
THIS REGION. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHIELD LARGE ENOUGH FOR SOME
HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY MOST OF THE AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE COLD...DRY AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN RETURNING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-26, 11:25 pm

Its the 84 hr nam which is to be taken lightly but it shows a classic southern slider TN snow storm. If it verified it would give most of the state accumulating snow!

Ive extrapolated and penciled in where the shortwave energy would travel..the snow swath would be and the surface low track path

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 6:53 am

I must be teh only one excited about this pattern? The Euro has been suggesting a phasing storm near to just after the new year several different runs in a row now. It actually showed a triple phaser a few runs ago!! (if somebody wants to see that I can dig it up)

Here is this mornings Euro showing a classic double phaser which would clobber alot of the state if this 500mb animated gif was to verify


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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-27, 7:18 am

Wow Toot! I'd love to see that verify, I'm just afraid with all the chaos in the models that I'd be setting myself up to get excited and then it not verify. However, if it did phase like that, then yeah we'd be happy. I guess we have to look at trends, which are still supportive of wintry precip during this timeframe, and not look at every single model run that comes along. However, it sure is easy to get caught up in that model madness, esp when they show what they did a few days ago. I fall into that category of model hugging, but have just about conditioned myself not to. We'll see what happens here, if this doesn't work out, then maybe the next one will. After all, there will only be so many non events before we hit it big again lol

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 7:57 am

I dont really have much doubt that we see a light accumulating snow event or two over the next 10 days from the northern stream! NW Flow/Arctic front snow...I think thats almost a given for NE TN at least.

Im more worried that our big daddy will be too suppressed due to the strong lobe of the PV crushing everything southward or shearing anything that tries to come north

Anyways the 6z GFS ensembles are certainly interesting looking at hr 150

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 8:28 am

I wish I could keep my eyes off guidance models for just one day but the Arctic intrusion mixed in with such an active pattern has the models throwing up continuous snow threats from all directions. Snow threats are everywhere. The NAM continues to suggest that there will be another threat around Monday/Tuesday..its actually forming another LPS along the arctic boundary. If its correct it will be a winter wonderland around here mid week and yes I know its hr 84 of the NAM but its so sexy I had to weenie out and talk about it..lol

Classic southern slider setup there!


Also check out the Tanking AO uh oh 

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Neals on 2013-12-27, 10:26 am

[quote="Toot"]I must be teh only one excited about this pattern?

I am with you!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-27, 1:52 pm

I'am excited about it as well! Looking at the 12z gfs it is starting to catch on again to the New Years storm. It has it further south and east but I think that is a good thing the way the models have been. I see it trending further nw with time! BRING IT!!!!!!!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by windstorm on 2013-12-27, 4:52 pm

For New Years in the Chattanooga area a dud, other than some snfl. Daytime highs for my area are around 39 - 40 degrees. Clipper systems coming down next week. Maybe good for your area. Have a great weekend everyone.
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-27, 5:21 pm

Cautiously optimistic here. Have gotton fisted too much to get too excited.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 5:27 pm

windstorm wrote:For New Years in the Chattanooga area a dud, other than some snfl. Daytime highs for my area are around 39 - 40 degrees.

LOL..how in the world do you know this Windstorm? Are you just talking about New Years day or what? Guidance models cant even agree on anything right now! There is a large scale pattern change taking place as we speak and the storm track will be much further south and east!

There is the matter of another Gulf low that the Euro has suppressed the day after new years with an Arctic airmass already in place in Chatanooga!! From experience I know that these almost always trend north and west a bit. I will tell you what... I would rather be in Chatanooga for that one as I would Bristol 
popcorn 



Jan 2nd


Temperatures for the same hour


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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-27, 6:57 pm

Here is what the gfs is showing for thur"
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 7:22 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Here is what the gfs is showing for thur"
I tried to fix your image URL but it seems pretty dead/broken. So I will post the latest GFS snowfall accumulations and setup late next week..but its likely to change! I think the GFS is too northern stream dominant with the monster clipper. The euro has nothing like that! Im not sure any model is handling the situation correctly but I will take the GFS and run with it..lol




Manitoba Mauler anyone?


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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by VFL on 2013-12-27, 7:25 pm

etnwx wrote:Cautiously optimistic here. Have gotton fisted too much to get too excited.

Can't say I've ever been fisted.
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-27, 7:36 pm

Thanks toot! I don't know what's up with the URL? But your right it will change.       smartass

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-27, 7:48 pm

VFL wrote:
etnwx wrote:Cautiously optimistic here. Have gotton fisted too much to get too excited.

Can't say I've ever been fisted.
Iam hoping it looked like this.......    slap  Lol.
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 7:56 pm

etnwx wrote: Have gotton fisted too much to get too excited.








Jscentraltn wrote:Thanks toot! I don't know what's up with the URL? But your right it will change.       smartass
Man..im biting my nails over each model run. Ive never seen guidance struggle so much with a pattern change. Hopefully that means something big or historic is in the cards! The euro showed a monster phase on several different runs..im hoping it comes back to that 
beer

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-27, 8:24 pm

I know it is hard not too! I won't sleep for days for looking at all the data and model runs. The NWS had info on the snowstorm on newyears eve and day of 1963-64 that was interesting of how much snow fell with that storm. Nashville had 10in and south of there was up to 15in. But the storm track was all the out in the Atlantic past Florida. Impressive!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 8:32 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:I know it is hard not too! I won't sleep for days for looking at all the data and model runs. The NWS had info on the snowstorm on newyears eve and day of 1963-64 that was interesting of how much snow fell with that storm. Nashville had 10in and south of there was up to 15in. But the storm track was all the out in the Atlantic past Florida. Impressive!
I read that..looks like most of that snow was caused by a lagging but powerful upper level low. Very sharp looking trough too..it was an interesting read/system

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-27, 8:54 pm

facepalm Fisted defined as: "2. Getting the short end of the stick, Getting a raw deal. The extreme of getting fucked, screwed or getting the shaft, involves more discomfort on the part of the fistee." More specifically, in my case, receiving only furries or a dusting of snow instead of 2 or 3 inches forecasted. Not in the way u perverts were thinking. pffft

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 8:59 pm

Haha..thanks for clearing that up for us lol!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by VFL on 2013-12-27, 9:33 pm

etnwx wrote:facepalm Fisted defined as: "2. Getting the short end of the stick, Getting a raw deal. The extreme of getting fucked, screwed or getting the shaft, involves more discomfort on the part of the fistee." More specifically, in my case, receiving only furries or a dusting of snow instead of 2 or 3 inches forecasted. Not in the way u perverts were thinking. pffft

LMAO, still sounds painful. FWIW I was just messing with ya.
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-27, 9:55 pm

Yeah, wanted to clear that up right quick! LOL!
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-28, 8:26 am

As expected the latest run of the european model shifts the suppressed gulf low a little north! I expect more adjustments north will continue the next couple of runs putting northern AL and GA into the game! Pattern will support classic "Southern Slider" snow storm.

Here is the latest from the european. I expect this graphic to start showing snow further south into GA AL and possibly MS the next few runs.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

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