The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

MRX accumulation graphic

That's pretty good for them, but have their thoughts changed since this morning? That says it was done overnight and it expired this morning at 10:38AM. If they still think this way, then an advisory should be issued down to knoxville

Not sure Jed..they released that on their Facebook page about an hour ago

Ah ok. They probably still feel that is reasonable. I think it looks ok still some bust potential on this one, but when is there not

HRRR showing a quick burst of moderate snow for west TN

MRX updated snowfall map for today. Looks basically the same as yesterday. I see there is a ZR advisory for NE TN this AM and a WWA for tonight 0.5-1in for the central valley more on ridge tops haha never seen them do that in the Central Valley, but good call. 1-2 for the N Valley is what they expect.

Im beginning to see some sleet mix in with the rain here in Hamblen county.

I was wondering about that too. Thought I might have seen some a little bit ago. I have a feeling we gonna have to wait though till NW Flow kicks in and hope for the best b/c radar sure isn't looking good for the synoptic type of snow. Hopefully, I'm wrong and it fills back in, but I'm not too sure about this one.

Im not sure I trust that gap in between radar returns over the Plateau..in reality there is probably precip there.

Meanwhile and speaking of NW Flow..there is already a healthy looking fetch of moisture coming from the great lakes!


Its been snowng on Leconte since 10AM this morning..they are going to get pummeled. I can see a foot of snow there

4km sim radar for later on this evening/tonight

Seeing a little snow from time to time. Not much, just patches here and there.

Jed33 wrote:Seeing a little snow from time to time. Not much, just patches here and there.

haha..I was beginning to think the synoptic end wasnt gonna produce any flakes here but yeah.. light snow here now too! Temps have dropped from 37 to 35 over the last 30 minutes and I must say that fetch of precip to our NW is quite impressive looking. Still might squeak out some accums (if we get under a good streamer) here in the northern valley before its all said and done. Not really looking forward to working outdoors tomorrow tho..its goona be raw but not nearly as raw as its gonna be Mon and Tues 

This was posted on my FB page from Cosby, TN in Cocke county just before dark

Temps are falling like a rock!! Already down to 31 here..the NW flow snow should begin in earnest over the next couple of hours. With below freezing temps everything should stick pretty easy but we now have the stiff winds to deal with.


If you follow weather pages on FB or know of DT you will probably get a good laugh out of this **Aleet Aleet**




Back to the snow..here is MRX's updated snowfall amounts

Radar is really starting to pop, returns looking good.

Toot wrote:Temps are falling like a rock!! Already down to 31 here..the NW flow snow should begin in earnest over the next couple of hours.

I agree. I was just looking at the soundings from the latest RAP, and the atmosphere becomes much more favorable for the typical northwest flow snow over the next couple of hours. The snow growth zone drops to around 850mb over the next two hours and the low level lapse rates improve. That along with the northwesterly winds typically squeezes out any available moisture for the northern areas.

Thanks Math/Met.. nice to hear from you. MRX must've seen the same info that we seen cause they just issued this SPS for the northern/central valley areas

Code:

000
WWUS84 KMRX 030019
SPSMRX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

TNZ036-038>040-068>071-073-081>083-086-098-101-102-031400-
ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-
NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-NORTHWEST MONROE-
MARION-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...
MADISONVILLE...JASPER...BENTON...DUCKTOWN
719 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014 /619 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014/


...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED...AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING...PATCHY BLACK ICE AND SLICK CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON
ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM THE EARLIER RAINFALL. THESE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE
DUE TO THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FROM OVERNIGHT.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION AS ROADS
COULD QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY ONCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINS,
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS OFTEN DEVELOP FIRST.

EDIT: The winds have began ROARING here

Really starting to come down here in Morristown! Cars and rooftops already covered and laying pretty quick elsewhere too.

Subdivision road where I live is covered with icy spots.

Temp is 26 with flurries here on NE side of Morristown. Nothing covered really here yet. Hopefully I will be able to get some accum here too. For some reason I don't hardly ever get good NW flow here in My location in Morristown. I guess a good reason is bc I am not on a slope that faces NW. Haha. I am near the top of a ridge, but I'm slightly down and facing NE.

Downtown Gatlinburg..from WBIR

Listing to the police scanner, the roads in Knox Co are really bad. Not everywhere but north and east seem to be the worst.

Around 1.3 inches of snow here so far. Roads are awful. Started snowing a bit around 2 pm, then stopped, then the upslope has been going this evening.

Finally got a light dusting here. Snow picked up a little bit, but it took forever. Temp is down to 20 degrees now! Getting colder, so maybe if I can get under at least a small band, maybe with the higher ratios, I can maximize what little moisture there is to work with. Winds are steady, gusty a little, but not as gusty as earlier this evening.

John1122 wrote:Around 1.3 inches of snow here so far. Roads are awful. Started snowing a bit around 2 pm, then stopped, then the upslope has been going this evening.

Congrats John! Maybe we can all pick up something Sunday night!

Nothing here but a quick snow shower with nothing sticking. Spoke to my son in law on Signal Mtn. He sent a pic to me. They picked up a quick inch and temp is 17*. If they get a little more moisture the back roads on the mountain will ice up fairly quick.