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The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-29, 3:08 pm

I am with ya toot! Just can't let go. With the system that just went though it was not showing anything at all for us it was out to sea. Then couple of days before! there you have it. Anyway if the euro brings the lead low further south we could end up with some snow.  Also add the cowboys to your disappointment for me!       mad

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-29, 5:10 pm

Today's 1200 GFS run: January 2nd we may have lows in the upper teens. No snow events through-out the run.

ECMWF 1200 - Maybe some wrap around flurries in the 2nd. Also lows in the teens on the 2nd.

NAM 1200 - Nada

This really blows! gun gun


Last edited by etnwx on 2013-12-30, 11:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-29, 5:29 pm

etnwx wrote:Today's 1800 GFS run: January 2nd we may have lows in the upper teens. No snow events through-out the run.
Looking at the 18z GFS regarding the early January system it actually produces about a half inch of snow north of I-40 in east TN from the NW flow/upslope. A possible dusting further south but thats not enough for me to waste my time posting the graphic..haha! Also..it produces a more significant event right behind this one

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-29, 6:01 pm

Well if I don't get the 20 percent chance of snow tonight. Maybe that the models are in more Ageement about next weekend!!!!!! I might get something from that.

 gaah

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 9:54 am

Models trending wetter as they bring more and more southern stream moisture northward into a cold airmass. Also if you hadnt noticed the last couple of runs brought the clipper like system much further south on the EURO and GFS. Its basically tracking right over west TN in the latest run of the euro. We'll have to watch this one right up until it happens. I smell something fishy going on!
popcorn

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by John1122 on 2013-12-30, 10:17 am

The Euro is moist but warm, would be some moderate rain. GFS is cold and drier but gives maybe .5-1 inch of snow in the upslope areas. NAM is rain to snow, not much accumulation.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 10:37 am

Im just watching the models southward trend of primary surface low. The euro is pretty interesting looking to me..here's a breakdown of hr 96 which is very close to something nice.

Surface temps


850mb temps


MSLP and 500-1000mb thickness and precip


If it continues to trend south it will only get colder 
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 10:48 am

12zGFS coming in ..looking quite a bit different so far!!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 10:58 am

12zGFS now has bonified gulf low..still a little funky looking but if correct a trend in the right direction and definately what you want to see if you live in Tennesee.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 12:37 pm

The 12z GFS ensembles are in full support of the operational GFS. In fact most of them look better than the GFS for snow in across the state, Some of them really nail middle and east TN. Just waiting on the euro now..if it joins I think it will be safe to say that we have something legit

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 1:11 pm

The euro is coming in further south but not as far south as the GFS it looks like. Still a decent shift south! Will have graphics in the members only section shortly!

Meanwhile..it looks like some pretty good radar returns out in west TN currently. What are yall seeing west TN folk?

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-30, 1:24 pm

Right now overcast 29degrees. At work been checking updates on phone. Starting to sound pretty good for thur! Any the precip shield is about 25 miles to my southwest. Will update when it moves though. They have been spraying salt? Forecast cloudy 36. Later

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by wxgeek on 2013-12-30, 2:09 pm

Yikes. I haven't been paying attention since Xmas. Is that the Euro 12z showing a polar vortex in the 7 day? Looks like it could be a 1985 remake.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-12-30, 2:18 pm

wxgeek wrote:Yikes.  I haven't been paying attention since Xmas.  Is that the Euro 12z showing a polar vortex in the 7 day?  Looks like it could be a 1985 remake.
yes sir, the polar vortex drops down into the ohio valley... carbon copy of the airmass in jan 85... maybe even slightly coldr, if you can imagine that. minus 24 degress lo in nashville on that run minus 10 in memphis... nearly 10 inches of snow state wide nearly before th mother load drops down. WOW

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by wxgeek on 2013-12-30, 2:46 pm

Heading out to stock up on bread, milk and some loose fill insulation for my attic.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 5:09 pm

18zGFS holds serve with gulf low Jan 2nd. The way the deform band /comma head sets up is quite suspect to me tho. I would be more persuaded to believe the euro over the GFS just based on that alone but the ensembles show alot of support for GFS. Still..at this point I think the GFS may be a little too far south but the euro could be a hair too far north also.

Still..no clear signals with this one. Looks like its gonna come down to the wire 
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 5:29 pm

Here it comes!! Will it survive the trip across the plateau? The HRRR says no but hi res models are not doing to well with it

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by VFL on 2013-12-30, 6:08 pm

Holding together so far.
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by snowman72 on 2013-12-30, 6:12 pm

The Plateau usually kills it for us in East Tn.

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Pman1618 on 2013-12-30, 6:30 pm

Guys I live in Nashville and literally not one snowflake fell so i really doubt it's going to make it over to east tennessee

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-30, 7:26 pm

Just in from work and it was just to dry for anything to fall at the surface. All it did was keep temps below freezing all day!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by memoriesof85&93 on 2013-12-30, 7:45 pm

I was just outside and there is something falling of the wintery variety, bouncing off my car, graupel I think it is called.I live very close to the mall in East Knoxville. Interesting and surprising indeed!  popcorn 
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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-30, 8:24 pm

Well well, it made it haha it's snowing very lightly even here in Morristown! Very surprised but it's happening talk about over performing this one really did!

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by Toot on 2013-12-30, 11:04 pm

0zGFS just came in quite a bit wetter over most of TN. Probably at least 1-3 from Nashville east. Another good trend for Jan 2nd

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Re: The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-30, 11:06 pm

Correction, I was looking at the 1200 GFS yesterday, not the 1800, and the 1800 had changed tremendously. Looking at the PV you all see, I see nothing in the GFS that would indicate the kind of cold your models show. What an I missing?

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