Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Wow really warming up today in the mountains. Per twitter.

@SmokiesWeather: 93.0F +10.6 Wind 1.6mph due S. Rain 0.00" Humid 10% B-Press 1012.6+Rising slowly. Fairly fine, improving. Sunst 20:03

The conus temperature map there to the left tells the story well. I'll have to say that's one of the biggest contrasts I've seen in a long long time. Earlier today Denver was at 15 while DC was at 88. (73 degrees difference!!) Some places, like Roanoke hit 90, and I saw where VFL posted how it was 93 in the mtns earlier! Unbelievable warmth!

Major Tornado outbreak continues to look probable around April 16th-19th and will likely have dual warm and cold front severe!

Toot wrote:Major Tornado outbreak continues to look probable around April 16th-19th and will likely have dual warm and cold front severe!

yeah, this is a legit threat, and if the gfs verirfies... very good chance there will be an outbreak... broad based trough with a nice big warm sector which will produce a high cape potential... there sure as hell plenty of shear, low level at that... the euro is a little funky to me... with most of the best dynamics along front and slower with the trough progressing east... but word on street is ensembles look very scary... I haven't seen them... but bottom line is, though we have time to watch models... this threat for now has some big legs with it

Threat for east tenn?

It still looks like the cold air will undercut this storm as well. that will limit the severe weather to heavy rain and large hail. Not so much a tornado threat! I hope! But if the storms can fire out ahead of the front then we may in trouble!

Dogwood winter to occur next weekend per GFS

Toot wrote:Dogwood winter to occur next weekend per GFS

usually dogwood winter follows a severe event...

I sure hope it dont drop below freezing next weekend, like the GFS is suggesting. We laughed at MRX a couple weeks ago for issuing freeze warnings, but this time, it would be a legitimate threat if the temp were to get that low. There is a lot of flowing things that could be damaged if the temp falls below 32 for any length of time.

Jed33 wrote: There is a lot of flowing things that could be damaged if the temp falls below 32 for any length of time.

I don't think any streams or rivers are going to freeze over. I'm guessing you meant flowering? LOL.

Lol, nice catch Snowdog! I did, that's a smart phone for ya!

Knew not to plant warn weather veggies yet.

I have noticed that outflow boundaries are starting to become enough forcing/lift to produce convection/precip. Wont be long now until we are talking severe thunderstorms associated with mesocale convective systems/complexes (MCS's) (MCC's) (MCV's) (Bow echo's). I like to think of these as mini low pressure systems..or natures way of dissipating heat over land during hot or summerlike weather. I enjoy these mainly because they are the only thing interesting to me during the summer season with the exception of tropical cyclones of course!

Death ridges cant be far behind!

Was just about to ask what is going on with our severe season. Very unactive and I don't see any real threats on the horizon. Toot or anyone can you all give a mid-season update and what you expect until summer gets here? Thanks.

VFL wrote:Was just about to ask what is going on with our severe season. Very unactive and I don't see any real threats on the horizon. Toot or anyone can you all give a mid-season update and what you expect until summer gets here? Thanks.

Looking at the longer range seasonal guidance (CFS/KMA/JAMSTEC) models...cooler than normal seems to win out for the rest of the spring season including the month of May in the eastern US! This doesnt at all mean there wont be a tornado outbreak or two over the next 6 weeks..but it does suggest a below normal severe weather season overall. If you look at the last 30 days of observed temp data the anomaly looks like this.



This trend looks to continue up until summer where seasonal models begin to show warmer than normal probably indicating another scorcher! I plan on doing a summer outlook if I get the time

Man, look at this current complex sliding S out of KY and VA! If this ain't an MCS, I don't know what is! Seems aweful early to be having this kind of activity though!

I think it will be another hot summer which i don't like but it's coming. Just hope we get enough rainfall without falling into a drought. I have notice in the past that when the NE has a cool to what you would call a cold summer, it tends to be cold or colder than normal in the East come winter. I have only seen this pan out a few times. Not saying this happen every time. What does everyone think ?

IMO, late snowpack over the midwest should hopefully keep that area cooler and more moist which will lead to cooler conditions there. Seems to me it would be hard for us to get unusually hot early on without that help. We get hot when we're on the front side of a hot, dry mid-west ridge like 2007 and last year. In our normal pattern, high humidity limits our temps to double digits.

As I recall Bastardi is calling for a cooler summer, at least early.

We could use a cool summer. I will take it anytime over hot, high humidity .

Overnight lows tonight via NCEP NMM-WRF

BRRR!

Next severe system?

Well, I see a little frost around here this morning, but mostly in low lying areas. Up on the ridge at the house, the wind never settled down enough to get frost. However, it is 33 degrees though! Really cold for this time of year. I imagine down at the bottom of the hill, where the frost is, it is below freezungz

VFL wrote:Next severe system?

the gfs has my interest next weekend... we shall see how things stack up as week rolls along...

Awesome graphics from the SPC on severe climo. They show an interesting bullseye just east of the state towads the middle of june


Here is the link that will give you any date you would like
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr

This March compared to last