Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Not Joe Bastardi's site....but interesting write-up nonetheless

Thanks for the heads up. Some how it didn't put in all i said. It should have read this before i put the link in. This goes along with Joe B thinking about the cold weather reloading again sometime around mid month. Sorry for the mix up.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot , lets see some porn from todays Euro.  Would be the perfect storm for me.

Sorry DW..ive been pretty busy here lately and havent had much time to do much in the weather dept. This should help with winter weather real soon tho

No problem Toot. It was there for a couple of runs and now gone. The Euro is holding back the energy in the SW which it does a lot. Still possibilities end of next week.

Side note. Am I the only one seeing weird pics. I think we have been hacked.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:No problem Toot. It was there for a couple of runs and now gone. The Euro is holding back the energy in the SW which it does a lot. Still possibilities end of next week.

Side note. Am I the only one seeing weird pics. I think we have been hacked.

Iam with you! I hadn't been on here in a couple days. Something don't seem right. Whatever tiny little pic is?

I dont see anything out of the ordinary. What are you all talking about?

Hey toot! There are little pics at the header of new topics. Also in the chat room that whole section is a pic of a mother daughter? Really weird.

Also so when you quote someone the box that you click is a image of a man at the checkout counter?

Does anyone else see this or what?

Ok now I see it. What the heck?

EDIT: Should be fixed now..anybody with access to the admin panel will now need their password to get into it!

Does next week look interesting? Been real busy at work and haven't payed attention until I saw MRX's forecast.

Gonna be a clipper/upslope type event. If lucky, everyone will see some accumulation from the clipper in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

the long range gfs continues to indicate a pattern change by months end still, with the nao going into negative territory... hopefully we can get the pattern change before its to late

Euro is showing the pv coming back in a week or so. Will it be as cold? I'am ready for a big one . Just don't see it yet!

Looks like another NW flow event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Very light accumulations possible in the valley with a few inches in the usual areas. GFS is much colder than the euro behind the Arctic front but is probably much too cold. Not really expecting anything like the last Arctic intrusion

This is from another weather blog i found. Take a look at it and see what you think. If it needs to be in a new thread please move it.  http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/01/stratospheric-trifecta-signals-brutally.html?m=1   

MRX is having trouble with this clipper, so it seems they took all the models and split the forecast down the middle.

12z GFS was good for us along with GGEM. Euro and NAM were not. 18z GFS was terrible again, then along comes the 0z NAM which basically looks a lot like 12z GFS. This has been an incredibly tough year for consistency in the models. I don't know which solution if any is right, but it's almost comical the way these solutions have been this winter. I will be of course hoping the 12z GfS was right, as it now has support from the NAM, but only time will tell.

Isn't the 18z GFS always been a little flaky anyways?

4kmNAM

NAM looks good but can it be trusted? The Good for something model can't seem to decide what we are gonna have in less than 24 hrs. much less long term. It's a tough spot to be in right now being at MRX or any other WFO. I think at least a dusting seems in order for tonight and tomorrow, but then again what do I know. I think the most the valley sees is 1in, but hey, we still got some time right.

When the 4km Nam talks I listen. Its usually very stingy for the valley

What's your thoughts on this one Toot? Is the GFS about to get schooled by the Nam and his stingy brother the hi-res?

Well, we'll looks like the GFS took a step toward the NAM. 12z GFS shows .5-1.5 over most of E TN. Not much, but still something.

Jed33 wrote:What's your thoughts on this one Toot? Is the GFS about to get schooled by the Nam and his stingy brother the hi-res?

Haha..I absolutely have no idea on this one. Huge bust potential either way. Some guidance is suggesting nothing much and some is forming another wave of low pressure that would likely give us a thumping!! MRX pulled the guns out on a WWA for pretty much the whole area..LOL!!