Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Jscentraltn wrote:I think the pattern setup is going to please all in feb! Storms,snowstorms,hot,cold. We will have all of it. It will be a fun month to track. So get your rest while you can. Speaking of that it is 63 degrees at my house now. the high tomorrow is to be at 16 degrees by  the afternoon.   
        

i agree with you 100 percent... this progressive pattern is finally saying good bye... pattern going into a amped up mode sw semi zonal flow brings up plenty moisture with artic intrusions nudging down from the north... vilotale pattern taking shap according to major globals

This equals over running events. 33' and rain is not my favorite.

Just amazed the gulf coast to the Atlantic sea board is gonna get clobbered and here we sit with nothing.

I know back in dec we had 2 ice events and lost power with one. The great thing about this go around I think it will be colder so more of a snow threat! Our severe weather season may get started early as well! 33 and rain sucks.

Yeah! It is crazy during this time of all the artic air we got nothing here. Now they can get a good 3-6" of snow. Makes me sick! But I still think we will have our time soon!

Looks like a NW trend has started. How far will it come north though?

I don't honestly know how much further north it can come, the only way it can come any further north though looks like if the PV lifts out a little faster and the arctic push is not quite as strong, the precip won't be pushed as far south. It looks like the push of cold is not coming in as strong on the models so it causes the precip shield to move further NW. It would take a lot more room to get E TN in though as what you see on 18z GFS and SREF would largely probably be Virga due to rates not being high enough and limited moisture. Need about another 100 mi NW shift to start really getting in on it IMO. We'll see.

00z saw an end to the NW trend as the 500mb vort gets left behind by the northern stream a bit. Still big snows well south and east of here. But not what 18z showed.

Guys, I am thinking east tenn. and especially ones that border NC will do pretty good with snow in the morning. What do you all think?

Hard to say, looks like guidance is trying to throw us a bone. I like the newest WRF too! Robert says the ULL over AZ was not modeled by the globals and may be able to generate some precip here in the morning. Don't know, guess we'll have to see.

 I sure do like it's look compared to those stinking clippers.

Yeah, the clippers have sucked apart from TRI, and even then only this last one was really decent.

On a side note, it looks like we came out of Nina conditions back into neutral territory again, not that we were really in a Nina, we just trended back to a more neutral ENSO. The dry clippers may have been the reason we were in that pattern, I don't know. Regardless looks like more precipitation will be incoming in Feb. overall than Jan. Hard to say if much, or any, will be frozen at this point, but I'm willing to bank it will.

Wow 18z gfs really brought the storm even more northwest

Yeah Toot where are ya buddy? Was Robert right? Can some of this sw moisture get swept up into our area tomorrow? The dp's are going down so going to be a fight but if the hires nam is correct, and we get 25-30 DBS returns, it may be enough to overcome the dryness.

My shorts are getting tight looking at these mods. Another 50 miles or so and it'll get interesting.

Shoot it already is interesting!! Man, I hate to say it but I'm getting sucked back into this deal. I had given up, but I wondered about this when I look back on the last several arctic blasts we've had, the cold was getting delayed a little more each time. Don't get me wrong, it came on in, but it was delayed as it has been today, and I wondered if it were possible to get that stubborn PV in a more favorable place. Then the AZ vort that developed this morning put the squeeze play on the Baja low, and moisture has started to stream into the northern stream just like Wxsouth stated. Now, I don't know if there will be enough moisture to overcome the low dp's but if the temps drop down tonight and the difference btwn the DP and the temp is not too much, then RH should be higher and maybe we stand a better shot. There will be Virga with this storm though, that's a given. If nothing else, this has been an extremely fun one to track, and a GREAT example of why not to look at the GFS or Euro and think it's a done deal!

Also how many time has the mods looked good up to 24 hours and then it moves NW and we get rain? Maybe this time it moves in our favor.

Looking past this storm that rolls under us. The pattern is changing and just for giggles I looked at the accumulated snowfall from the euro,gfs,Canadian. If you like snow move north the storm track looks to be right over us. So the snow goes north. But I think it will be colder. the models will struggle with this pattern as well in the long range.

  

I looks like the front has put its brakes on! It would be nice if it stalled out right were it's at. According to the temp graphs on the top left of the screen 46 in Atlanta and 57 in Louisiana. But I don't know how often they update.

Where is Toot? He has to be tracking this one. I'm like you Jedd, this is getting interesting.

The further south and east you are the better for sure. I'm not sure what's gonna happen. Just gonna have to watch and see I guess

I would say if anything! from Crossville to the east veryLight snow if any. That would be in the morning that's about it!

Yeap and llike Jed pointed out the southern part, too!
Southeastern tn may do alright. I hope everyone gets a little cause it's going to be cold no matter what!

I would think if it snows then it would be slick. Therefore, wouldn't mrx issue something. Or is that incorrect?

Looking at the radar at 615AM, I think southeast TN and some parts of middle TN could get 2-3 inches of snow. I am thinking 2 inches in Chattanooga!

Light snow here in Morristown beginning to get a light accum here temp 15! Coldest I've ever seen an accumulating snow!!