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Possible 25-26 snow

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-24, 9:59 am

From what source are you getting your info? Here is the 12z nam! All other models have started the trend more north over night as I thought..... So maybe since your hung up on a dusting maybe you will be the only one to get that dusting... Lol...



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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 10:21 am

That new map shows about 4 to 5 inches in my area. The reason I am so hesitant to go with that model information is because the National Weather Service would have to post a winter storm watch at this point. They have yet to even make a mention of it really.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-24, 10:39 am

With ull they are tricky to forecast, the nws is going with the forecast from the 12z euro from yesterday... But they all have came north even from that forecast... Nam does preform well with ull's it still has it closed off in n miss. The other models open it up a lot sooner... The lp in the gulf is separate from the ull feature In n miss.... That's why they say stay tuned to later forecast. I would suspect that as the day goes forward the models will continue north with the precip shield.... It is still 24hrs away...

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 10:47 am

Well if your scenario where to verify then most of middle Tennessee would get quite a significant snowfall correct?

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-24, 10:48 am

The 12z gfs coming in further north! It is stronger with ull feature as well in n miss.... I'm sure the trend will continue. Not sure how much more north it will come though..

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-24, 10:53 am

I would say from Nashville east and south has the highest chance as of now.... Up my way I'm on the fence.... It will be close for me! Its alright though I still have about an inch and half on the ground here of snow and ice... A lot of back roads still in bad shape.. But we shall see...

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 10:53 am

New model data is coming in this morning; it will all be evaluated and a winter storm warning will be needed for much of North, and parts of Central Alabama later today concerning the event tomorrow.

Here is the new run (12Z) of the NAM model… showing the axis of heavier snow generally between I-20 on the southern periphery, and US 278 to the north.



You can see the “bullseye” on this run is near Cullman and Gadsden with 5-7 inches (the US 278 corridor)… but remember, this is raw model output, not a forecast. But, it is certainly possible considering we are 24 hours away from the event. The model suggests around 2-3 inches of snow for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston.

As stated here many times, the most difficult part of this forecast is defining the rain/snow line to the south, and the northern edge of the accumulating snow to the north. And, another challenge is where the heavy snow axis sets up… this is usually only about 30 miles wide, and can’t really be defined until the event begins.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-24, 10:58 am

I won't say anything about accums until later tonight until I look at some data and model runs....

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Toot on 2015-02-24, 12:44 pm

Boom pow bang..this is what im coming up with!! Especially concerned with this one after all the previous ice and snow that has already added extra stress to tree limbs and power lines....

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 1:06 pm

Toot Does a very very bold prediction in my opinion. Not that I don't like it but I would be shocked to see 5 to 8 inches in my area.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-24, 1:30 pm

Pamphobeteus wrote:Toot Does a very very bold prediction in my opinion. Not that I don't like it but I would be shocked to see 5 to 8 inches in my area.

don't be a hater !! lol just weather and opinions .. popcorn

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 1:32 pm

I am not being a hater. I personally would love to see that much snow up here. I just personally don't think that's going to happen. I'd be surprised to see over an inch.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-24, 1:35 pm

Pamphobeteus wrote:I am not being a hater. I personally would love to see that much snow up here. I just personally don't think that's going to happen. I'd be surprised to see over an inch.


gotcha !! ill take what the good lord gives and have fun with it !! good luck hope you get the snow ya want .

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-24, 1:36 pm

The low is project for a snow like that on the map. Main question is how strong will the low get?. 5 or more would not be out of the question. If this holds u should see winter watches or winter storm warning by this evening.
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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-24, 1:37 pm

I don't think you have ever seen snow with one of these ull's! The rates could be as high as 1-2 per hour or higher... Very convective, also thunder pos... I think the map is pretty close... Some adjustments... Still see the other models catching the nam soultion...

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 1:39 pm

That's just it the low is projected to be further south pushing most of the snow into Alabama. East Tennessee may get a good snow but does not appear that middle Tennessee will see very much.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-24, 1:46 pm

It certainly is a possibility that we could see those kind of numbers Toot. The modeling continues to drift north, not so much as just the precip shield keeps expanding further NW. The computer models just don't understand the dynamics of a low pressure like this, until the event is right on the doorstep. The GFS appears to be the worst this year with that, although, the Euro has struggled as well. When you put a low pressure in the location where this one is progged, precip usually extends up into a good chunk of TN. We will just have to wait and see. On another note, I am now at 11 inches for the year after this morning's storm dumped 3.25 here at the house. Just need 0.1 inches more to reach the 11.1 inches that is the average for Morristown. (Using the 1960-1990 data, not the newer data, which is never right bc so much of it is missing. That's another story for another day)

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 2:40 pm

Winter storm warning's have been posted for Lincoln more and Franklin counties in southern middle Tennessee for 3 to 5 inches of snow. Most of northern Alabama is also under a winter storm warning including Huntsville for 4 to 6 inches of snow. However it looks like the majority of the snow will be confined to northern Alabama. The winter storm warning's are approximately two counties south of where I am located.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-24, 2:46 pm

I'm going put on a limb here and saying we will see between 1 and 7 inches.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 2:50 pm

I would say that is a safe bet. We could end up with an inch. We could also absolutely get slammed.

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-24, 2:53 pm

12z NAM for my area now is showing 5.4 inches. local weatherman as of noon times was saying 2 to 4. we will see.
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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-24, 3:00 pm

TNZ081>084-098-099-250345-
/O.EXB.KMRX.WS.A.0003.150225T1800Z-150226T1200Z/
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MARION-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...
JASPER...CHATTANOOGA
231 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* EVENT...SNOW...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION...
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-24, 5:32 pm

Winter weather advisories posted for 1-2

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-24, 5:46 pm

Winter Storm Watches posted for all of East TN

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Re: Possible 25-26 snow

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