Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 5:20 pm

18z gfs says game on popcorn

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 F108

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 F114

Im starting to notice a trend towards a stronger surface low drool

Look at that greenland block rock on

Current NH 500mb pattern
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 T0

by **John1122** 2012-02-14, 5:38 pm

As was prominent on MRX's front page today, this was the 1960 kickoff date to the greatest winter in recorded East Tennessee history. After a very mild and relatively snow free winter a huge February storm dumped 9-12 inches in the Southern Valley and 14-20 inches for points northward. Knoxville got 18.8 inches in two days. And that was just the start. Knoxville went on to record almost 40 more inches of snow before the end of March 1960 and other areas of East Tennessee recorded as much as 80 inches with close to 200 along the tops of the Smokies.

While I doubt the upcoming storm will produce anything close to that and I expect March to be somewhat mild, it will always serve to show that winter isn't truly over in East Tennessee until mid-April. Even for the lower elevations.

by **John1122** 2012-02-14, 5:49 pm

I swear I wish that we'd get a very strong system that would just rip the cold air down. I am in a decent spot for what was shown there but it'd be very iffy for most of East Tennessee.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 18zgfs16

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 18zgfs16

by **John1122** 2012-02-14, 5:51 pm

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 6:00 pm

Not worried about precip type or 2mtemps at this point...if we get a low like what the gfs just showed...with favorable 850s and thickness...the surface temps will be there. Ive been looking for a low like this one ALL winter...and now the pattern is favorable for such a low and the models are reflecting that.

Give me this pattern... that gulf low and its track during Febuary and I will take my chances...precip type is always gonna be close with most systems around here anyways. If the pattern didnt support a snow I wouldnt be so excited right now..but the pattern is pretty favorable.

I imagine if models keep that Miller A that they have been showing.... you will see them trend colder at the surface by the time we get into the nams good range.

by **connerconner** 2012-02-14, 6:09 pm

heard the DGEX was far inland, too... can anyone confirm?? hurry

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-14, 6:09 pm

It is just fun to have something to follow. Good luck to you East Tn boys. Wink

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 6:14 pm

connerconner wrote:heard the DGEX was far inland, too... can anyone confirm??

It has twin cyclones/lows...one lakes cutter and one nearer the coast lmao

The lakes cutter is the stronger one so we're more burn

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 F138

But look at that cold air bypassing TN down into Alabama....the DGEX is on Crack like it always is lmao

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 6:20 pm

John1122 wrote:As was prominent on MRX's front page today, this was the 1960 kickoff date to the greatest winter in recorded East Tennessee history. After a very mild and relatively snow free winter a huge February storm dumped 9-12 inches in the Southern Valley and 14-20 inches for points northward. Knoxville got 18.8 inches in two days. And that was just the start. Knoxville went on to record almost 40 more inches of snow before the end of March 1960 and other areas of East Tennessee recorded as much as 80 inches with close to 200 along the tops of the Smokies.

While I doubt the upcoming storm will produce anything close to that and I expect March to be somewhat mild, it will always serve to show that winter isn't truly over in East Tennessee until mid-April. Even for the lower elevations.

Good post John...I have never seen a winter even close to that one...hope I get to see that one day....awesome stuff there!!

BTW here is the 18zgfs accum. snowfall graphic from the same site that those precip type graphics are from.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 91bbwn

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 91bbwn

Dont match up very well...but just goes to show you really cant trust these p-type and accumulated snow graphics all that well.

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 7:18 pm

18zGFS Ensembles have their eyes on east TN
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 F114

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 G1329265516993191977

by **jmundie** 2012-02-14, 7:28 pm

Toot - Where do you get your 18z ensemble members? They look like ewall maps, but I can't find them anywhere.

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 7:30 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallmref.html

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 7:39 pm

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 7:44 pm

lol

But seriously...most of the time there is temp issues unless its just a overrunning event or a powerhouse low. We live in the southeast which is known to be a little warm Razz

I wouldnt be paying much attention to small details such as temp profiles and qpf at this range. The players are on the field my friends

by **snowman72** 2012-02-14, 7:53 pm

All the local mets are saying low to mid 50's Saturday and upper 40's Sunday, and little to no chance of pecip. I hope they are all wrong for once.

by **connerconner** 2012-02-14, 8:00 pm

they will start reporting a chance of rain/snow about 36 hours out imo

by **jmundie** 2012-02-14, 8:13 pm

OHX is mentioning rain/snow and news 2 is as well. Now saying high of 46 Sunday.

And toot is right, most synoptic storms do have surface temp issues, even in new England. Boundary layer will be our biggest concern. We need to see a colder trend... Which I noticed several ensemble members were much colder than the op at 850.

Would like to see the euro come on board tonight. It's low placement was decent at 12z but the precip shield was tiny.

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 8:38 pm

Frank Straights Vlog..I didnt watch it but somebody was wanting to see his thoughts so here it is.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/big-storms-then-big-snow/61601

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 8:42 pm

I was just about to post that Toot. I thought Frank was going to get choked up talking about that Canadian. Says possible fun and games in TN valley/I-40 special. Still wait and see of course.

by **snowman72** 2012-02-14, 8:47 pm

What is the record for this season Gfs vs the Canadian?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 8:51 pm

I'm sorry, but this is too good not to share here.

Jburns from American:

Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread.

1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns.

2. Models that do not agree are outliers.

3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier.

4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset.

5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it.

6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4.

7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993.

8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens.

9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot".

10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1.

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 8:57 pm

snowman72 wrote:What is the record for this season Gfs vs the Canadian?

Day 5 forecast errors

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 3 Monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_120

by **jmundie** 2012-02-14, 9:05 pm

Here's another link. This is percentage correct - or something to that effect. The model that is most accurate is at the top of the graph

http://daculaweather.com/model_verification.php

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 9:17 pm

snowman72 wrote:What is the record for this season Gfs vs the Canadian?

the cmc has been pretty shittly all winter long, i have been watching it closely... if every snow storm verified off the cmc this winter, we would be buried up to our ass with snow this winter... just pure n simple... there just not going to be enough cold air to work with.... i hope im wrong.