Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 10:07 pm

Toot wrote:

lol

lmao , toot lol!

by **connerconner** 2012-02-14, 10:44 pm

apparently the NAM is a lot stronger... good news

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 11:03 pm

connerconner wrote:apparently the NAM is a lot stronger... good news

Yes it is...the NAM closes off two contours on the ULL right before what looks to be a phase taking place while the gfs only closes off one contour...the nam also has a colder high showing up farther south.....all good things that seem to fit IMO.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 4 F84

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 4 F84

by **Reb** 2012-02-14, 11:07 pm

by **connerconner** 2012-02-14, 11:21 pm

LOL love all the NC weenies over at American jumping off of cliffs because this thing is coming inland. They think they are the ONLY people in the whole world who want snow. I'm sick of central NC stealing our snow, looks like its not going to happen this time! evl

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 11:22 pm

Yeah Conner, you could hear the sound of all those weenies hitting the water all the way over here. Pretty funny.

lol!

by **Reb** 2012-02-14, 11:24 pm

yeah 0z runs it way inland, looks too warm even on the western side of the apps, but its going to change every run for a while. i still am not buying but im hoping!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 11:28 pm

Reb wrote:yeah 0z runs it way inland, looks too warm even on the western side of the apps, but its going to change every run for a while. i still am not buying but im hoping!

yeah reb, if this thing keeps inland and trending even more north, may be time to change this to a flood threat... popcorn

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 11:29 pm

it looses the 50 50 lowover the ne. no blocking waht so ever, no cold air to work with... just the way it is.

by **jmundie** 2012-02-14, 11:30 pm

The gfs is really close. I sure hope it trends colder... For all of our sake. This storm could make up for this crappy winter if it does.

by **Reb** 2012-02-14, 11:34 pm

seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 11:35 pm

There are a lot of worse tracks that storm could have taken on the GFS. Not a terrible run at all for TN. Still plenty of room for us to cash in.

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 11:36 pm

Meh...its a hair further inland...not a real big change...people at other places seem to be jumping off cliffs one run and jumping for joy the next. The euro synoptics didnt change all that much either from 0 to 12z...people looking at temps and other smaller scale details at this range will only drive you mad...as Reb said each run will be different..just looking for trends right now.

I hate to be in the sweet spot so early due to the dreaded NW trend...but we have that nice greenland block up there so that eases my worries about that just a bit.

Who's staying up for the euro? lmao

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 11:37 pm

Reb wrote:seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.

yep, and dont be suprised if this is the trend... whats going to keep it down along the coast?

by **Reb** 2012-02-14, 11:38 pm

ill be staying up for it lol What a Face

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 11:41 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Reb wrote:seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.
yep, and dont be suprised if this is the trend... whats going to keep it down along the coast?

Bruce the NAO is negative and there IS a greenland block in place RIGHT NOW...the stormtrack has moved south if you hadnt noticed...with that arctic outbreak coming in late FEB you may never get any severe smartass

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 11:42 pm

if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 11:42 pm

People are saying this is a Miller B on the GFS. WTF?

by **jmundie** 2012-02-14, 11:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Reb wrote:seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.
yep, and dont be suprised if this is the trend... whats going to keep it down along the coast?

The 50/50 is there Bruce. Nao is neutral instead of negative this run. I don't think it can com much further west thane we are seeing on the gfs with the 50/50 forming.

I'd like to see it trend deeper though. Maybe the low 990s in central ga. That would pull in all the cold air we need.

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 11:43 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

THE NAO IS TRULY NEGATIVE AND THERE IS A NAO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND RIGHT NOW

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-14, 11:45 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

THE NAO IS TRULY NEGATIVE AND THERE IS A NAO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND RIGHT NOW

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 4 Rr2yap

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 11:47 pm

lol...Its like Bruce didnt believe me the first time I said it.... Im about to pop a cork in here gaah

lmao

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 11:48 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

THE NAO IS TRULY NEGATIVE AND THERE IS A NAO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND RIGHT NOW

no way jose, seriously toot... only time we even get close is when we go to a transient type setup. if it were a true greenland block, we would be freezing our ass off for at least week or more.