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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-14, 10:07 pm

Toot wrote:

lol
lmao , toot lol!

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by connerconner on 2012-02-14, 10:44 pm

apparently the NAM is a lot stronger... good news

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 11:03 pm

connerconner wrote:apparently the NAM is a lot stronger... good news

Yes it is...the NAM closes off two contours on the ULL right before what looks to be a phase taking place while the gfs only closes off one contour...the nam also has a colder high showing up farther south.....all good things that seem to fit IMO.


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 11:07 pm

sexy

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by connerconner on 2012-02-14, 11:21 pm

LOL love all the NC weenies over at American jumping off of cliffs because this thing is coming inland. They think they are the ONLY people in the whole world who want snow. I'm sick of central NC stealing our snow, looks like its not going to happen this time! evl

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:22 pm

Yeah Conner, you could hear the sound of all those weenies hitting the water all the way over here. Pretty funny.

lol!

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 11:24 pm

yeah 0z runs it way inland, looks too warm even on the western side of the apps, but its going to change every run for a while. i still am not buying but im hoping!

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-14, 11:28 pm

Reb wrote:yeah 0z runs it way inland, looks too warm even on the western side of the apps, but its going to change every run for a while. i still am not buying but im hoping!
yeah reb, if this thing keeps inland and trending even more north, may be time to change this to a flood threat... popcorn

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-14, 11:29 pm

it looses the 50 50 lowover the ne. no blocking waht so ever, no cold air to work with... just the way it is.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-14, 11:30 pm

The gfs is really close. I sure hope it trends colder... For all of our sake. This storm could make up for this crappy winter if it does.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 11:34 pm

seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:35 pm

There are a lot of worse tracks that storm could have taken on the GFS. Not a terrible run at all for TN. Still plenty of room for us to cash in.
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 11:36 pm

Meh...its a hair further inland...not a real big change...people at other places seem to be jumping off cliffs one run and jumping for joy the next. The euro synoptics didnt change all that much either from 0 to 12z...people looking at temps and other smaller scale details at this range will only drive you mad...as Reb said each run will be different..just looking for trends right now.

I hate to be in the sweet spot so early due to the dreaded NW trend...but we have that nice greenland block up there so that eases my worries about that just a bit.

Who's staying up for the euro? lmao

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-14, 11:37 pm

Reb wrote:seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.
yep, and dont be suprised if this is the trend... whats going to keep it down along the coast?

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 11:38 pm

ill be staying up for it lol What a Face

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 11:41 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Reb wrote:seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.
yep, and dont be suprised if this is the trend... whats going to keep it down along the coast?

Bruce the NAO is negative and there IS a greenland block in place RIGHT NOW...the stormtrack has moved south if you hadnt noticed...with that arctic outbreak coming in late FEB you may never get any severe smartass


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-14, 11:42 pm

if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:42 pm

People are saying this is a Miller B on the GFS. WTF?
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-14, 11:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Reb wrote:seems like its trended way north basically every storm this winter.
yep, and dont be suprised if this is the trend... whats going to keep it down along the coast?

The 50/50 is there Bruce. Nao is neutral instead of negative this run. I don't think it can com much further west thane we are seeing on the gfs with the 50/50 forming.

I'd like to see it trend deeper though. Maybe the low 990s in central ga. That would pull in all the cold air we need.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 11:43 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

facepalm

THE NAO IS TRULY NEGATIVE AND THERE IS A NAO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND RIGHT NOW

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:45 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

facepalm

THE NAO IS TRULY NEGATIVE AND THERE IS A NAO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND RIGHT NOW

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 11:47 pm

lol...Its like Bruce didnt believe me the first time I said it.... Im about to pop a cork in here gaah

lmao

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-14, 11:48 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:if we had some sustaiined blocking and a true neg nao, this track the 0z is showing would be classic for the whole damn state... if and buts...

facepalm

THE NAO IS TRULY NEGATIVE AND THERE IS A NAO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND RIGHT NOW
no way jose, seriously toot... only time we even get close is when we go to a transient type setup. if it were a true greenland block, we would be freezing our ass off for at least week or more.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:48 pm

The only way to settle this is to bust out some maps.

popcorn
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:51 pm

Don't look now, but apparently the Canadian is sexy.



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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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