Re: May Severe Weather

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-23, 6:25 pm

Hmm at least we have a chance at some organized severe weather.

by **andyhb** 2012-04-23, 7:00 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:saturday is starting to get my attention for at least west tn. potent surface low over missouri should provide enough shear... low level moisture may be lacking a tad...

In the presence of a 40-50 kt LLJ, 65-70 sfc dews like shown on the GFS should be plenty. I'd be a bit more worried with the moisture quality above the surface, mixing could be a problem.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-24, 6:58 am

From MRX this morning:

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GFS HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION UNTIL EVENING DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG 800MB INVERSION. BY EVENING...CAP WEAKENS ALLOWING SCATTERED-BROKEN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT GOES...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS WAVE GENERALLY SEPARATE WITH LITTLE TO NO PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE. THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. EITHER WAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THEN LIFT NORTH UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

Looks like an extended period of changeable and disturbed wx for the area.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-24, 10:13 am

Stovepipe wrote:Hoping to thread the needle for a rain free hike Saturday.

Fri/Sat both have a 30% chance of a storm. Should be ok, but would pack some rain gear, just in case ya'll happen to get a storm.

Did some wilderness camping many years ago in Minnesota. Weather was perfect the whole week. Except one night. Had a squall line from hell come through. Not too pleasant waking up in the middle of the night to a crack of thunder over your head, let me tell ya. And the wind laid our tent flat on top of us, while the rain fell in buckets. We couldn't help but get water in the tent. At that point, I was very glad I packed my underwear and socks in zip-lock freezer bags just in case. wash

I had noticed the week before that a strong cold front was scheduled to move through N. Minnesota while we were there.

Being a weather geek has it's advantages. Twisted Evil

by **Stovepipe** 2012-04-24, 10:21 am

WxFreak wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:Hoping to thread the needle for a rain free hike Saturday.

Fri/Sat both have a 30% chance of a storm. Should be ok, but would pack some rain gear, just in case ya'll happen to get a storm.

Did some wilderness camping many years ago in Minnesota. Weather was perfect the whole week. Except one night. Had a squall line from hell come through. Not too pleasant waking up in the middle of the night to a crack of thunder over your head, let me tell ya. And the wind laid our tent flat on top of us, while the rain fell in buckets. We couldn't help but get water in the tent. At that point, I was very glad I packed my underwear and socks in zip-lock freezer bags just in case...

Being a weather geek has it's advantages.

Getting caught in the wilderness during a storm can be a very humbling and terrifying thing. My worst backpacking memory is from not paying attention to the forecast and setting up camp in an old growth section of the Cherokee National Forest back in the late 90s. Knowing what I know now (thanks Math/Met) I'm pretty sure there was a mountain wave event. There certainly were wind advisories in place that I didn't know about before hand. Dead limbs were falling like spears from the sky. At one point we had to stand in the middle of a creek just to try to avoid falling debris. All we could do that night was move the tents under a rhododendron thicket and pray. Nothing like trying to fall asleep with the sound of huge old growth trees falling every few minutes. The hike out was interesting to say the least.

yikes

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-24, 10:30 am

Getting caught in the wilderness during a storm can be a very humbling and terrifying thing

Yeah, it's a quick way to learn your place in the universe. scared

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-24, 1:15 pm

Cold pool aloft left over from our departing storm is creating enough instability to get some showers going over East Tn today.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-25, 4:53 pm

Looks like we may have an early wake up call after midnight. Mother nature's alarm clock set to go off then.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT WED APR 25 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL EAST TN. THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH A MORE HUMID AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE MID WEST...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW (40 TO 50 KT) AND MODERATE HELICITY VALUES...THINK THAT SOME SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THE MODELS REVEAL A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THUS...THINK THAT SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY COMPLETELY DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER ON FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

by **Toot** 2012-04-25, 5:46 pm

Some of the loudest waking everybody up thunder that I have ever heard was with a late night MCS drool

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-25, 5:59 pm

I personally love a night time thunderstorm. Nothing like watching the distant lightning getting brighter, as the thunder goes from a soft, distant rumble, to a loud roar as the storm rolls through.

You can also appreciate the light show a lot more at night. No one shoots off their best fire works during the day. You wait for the dark so you can enjoy the sparks. Same is true of a good thunderstorm. rock on

by Vanster67 2012-04-26, 1:54 am

Severe thunderstorm watch to our north in KY.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1240 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 65 MILES EAST OF OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ONGOING OVER SRN
IL IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS WATCH AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...FORCED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNWLY
LLJ. AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG.
THIS INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

by Vanster67 2012-04-26, 1:56 am

WxFreak wrote:I personally love a night time thunderstorm. Nothing like watching the distant lightning getting brighter, as the thunder goes from a soft, distant rumble, to a loud roar as the storm rolls through.

You can also appreciate the light show a lot more at night. No one shoots off their best fire works during the day. You wait for the dark so you can enjoy the sparks. Same is true of a good thunderstorm.

Yes, beautiful at night, especially when your up and can watch it and listen! I am hoping we can have a little tonight! drool

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 5:56 am

MCS got a late (or early morning) start, depending on your perspective. After a quick look at the radar, and it appears a bowing section dropping south toward the Cookeville/Crossville area. Numerous severe thunder storm warnings with this line.

by Vanster67 2012-04-26, 6:03 am

Bring it on down. I anxiously await its arrival. I would not mind a good lightning/thunder extravaganza this morning. OHX says even possibly more severe this afternoon between the hours of 3pm - 10 pm. Two in a row would be nice, I'll be happy with just one. drool

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:04 am

You can tell the warm front pushed to our north. Woke up to 70F, and dewpoints in the upper 50's. Wind also blew all night.

This MCS is flying along at mach 1 uh oh

Severe T Storm warnings now in parts of TN.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
456 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OVERTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
PICKETT COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
CLAY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
FENTRESS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 442 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORMS
WAS NEAR HESTAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CELINA...
LIVINGSTON...
BYRDSTOWN...
JAMESTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2. DO NOT
STAY OUTDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:05 am

You look to welcome it into our area first, Vanster.

by Vanster67 2012-04-26, 6:08 am

WxFreak wrote:You look to welcome it into our area first, Vanster.

Morning WxFreak, I happily welcome it with open arms. And yes, it is hauling azz! rock on

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:08 am

Mornin' Van.

It will be heading into the Knoxville area around rush hour according to WBIR's Mike Witcher. I've got to jump in the shower, and get ready for work, just in case I lose power. yikes

Lots of trees around my area, so I lose power in severe weather quite often.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:12 am

A lot of instability around. Small, pop up showers developing ahead of this thing in East Tn.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:15 am

Looks like this is round 1. Round 2 to develop later today.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THESE STORMS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO A 90-100KT UPPER JET MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS PRODUCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ALSO...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH AN INCOMING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH BOW FEATURES.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:32 am

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM CDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC001-003-007-009-013-015-025-027-031-035-041-049-057-061-087-
093-105-107-111-121-123-129-133-137-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-
165-169-173-175-177-185-189-261700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0189.120426T1000Z-120426T1700Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE
BLOUNT CAMPBELL CANNON
CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS
GRAINGER GRUNDY JACKSON
KNOX LOUDON MACON
MCMINN MEIGS MONROE
MORGAN OVERTON PICKETT
PUTNAM RHEA ROANE
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE
UNION VAN BUREN WARREN
WHITE WILSON
$$

ATTN...WFO...JKL...OHX...MRX...

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:33 am

TNC001-013-129-145-151-261100-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-120426T1100Z/
ROANE TN-SCOTT TN-ANDERSON TN-CAMPBELL TN-MORGAN TN-
629 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT
FOR MORGAN...CAMPBELL...ANDERSON...SCOTT AND ROANE COUNTIES...

AT 630 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
JELLICO TO ELGIN TO DEERLODGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WILLIAMSBURG TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ONEIDA TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WARTBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WARTBURG...LA FOLLETTE...KINGSTON...HUNTSVILLE...JACKSBORO...HIGH
POINT...KETCHEN...ELGIN...DEERLODGE...SUNBRIGHT...SLICK ROCK...ELK
VALLEY...JELLICO...NORMA...ROYAL BLUE...SMOKEY JUNCTION...PINE
ORCHARD...WHITE OAK...CARYVILLE AND OAKDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:39 am

These storms are holding their own as they move down into the valley feeding off the early morning warmth and instability. Sometimes they weaken, or gust out as they come down this way, but don't see signs yet of that happening. I noticed the watch doesn't include the mountains yet, at least Sevier, Cocke, and points northeast. With the speed of the line, I would think they would have been included, unless it's expected to weaken. We'll see. scratch

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 6:50 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
644 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
GRAINGER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
UNION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 730 AM EDT

* AT 642 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LONDON TO 9 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMSBURG TO JACKSBORO TO WARTBURG...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LA FOLLETTE...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...KNOXVILLE...
RUTLEDGE...OLIVER SPRINGS...HARROGATE-SHAWANEE...FARRAGUT...
TAZEWELL...BEAN STATION...WHITE OAK...ROSEDALE...PETROS...
OAKDALE...FINCASTLE...CLAIRFIELD...DISNEY...HARRIMAN AND LAKE CITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-26, 7:02 am

Well, gotta get ready for work here. Everyone stay safe, and enjoy the active weather today. rock on

by Sponsored content