Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

by **Toot** 2012-07-28, 12:12 am

Before I turn in for the night I thought I would post the average (Mean) of the last two weeks of CFSV1 model runs for winter.

December 2m temp departure from normal
Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 24o10sj

Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 24o10sj

January 2m temp departure from normal
Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 Pm9av

Febuary 2m temp departure from normal
Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 2jcvrrp

And March for shits and giggles
Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 Dxfqk0

by **Stovepipe** 2012-07-30, 9:05 am

Very interesting Toot, thanks for posting those. Glad to see that model throwing some blue our way. I still have nightmares about all the dark red it had on our region last winter.

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-30, 12:52 pm

Alaska looks to be roasting in that model lol.

by **jmundie** 2012-07-30, 1:59 pm

Adam -

That's our pacific ridge.

Looks like nao stays negative all winter, and pna is neutral to positive all winter.

I'll take my chances with that set up in a weak el niño

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-30, 2:08 pm

All day man, that ridge would be absolutley huge.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-30, 2:49 pm

fwiw... latest forecast looks like the nino will peak in december...

by **Jed33** 2012-08-08, 11:05 pm

This may not prove to be anything here but an old wives tale. However, ever since I was a boy, I have always heard that a fog in August coincides with a snow in December. Now, if this were to be true, we would have 8 days of snow here in Morristown, because it has been foggy every single morning since this month started. Now, I have seen this saying bust before, but I've also seen it come true. I'd like to say it will happen as I'd like to see 8 days of snow in wash

December, but as much as I'd like to see it, I have to live in reality here lol. But, can I please have just half of that 4 days would be awesome too

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-09, 10:28 am

Jed33 wrote:This may not prove to be anything here but an old wives tale. However, ever since I was a boy, I have always heard that a fog in August coincides with a snow in December. Now, if this were to be true, we would have 8 days of snow here in Morristown, because it has been foggy every single morning since this month started. Now, I have seen this saying bust before, but I've also seen it come true. I'd like to say it will happen as I'd like to see 8 days of snow in December, but as much as I'd like to see it, I have to live in reality here lol. But, can I please have just half of that 4 days would be awesome too

Jed I've heard this for many years as well. I sure hope it pans out this time. popcorn

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-09, 11:43 am

another old wise tell i look at is... according to my late great grandmother, she said count the days in november who hear thunder... each day accounts for a snowfall for the up coming winter.

by **Jed33** 2012-08-09, 8:00 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:another old wise tell i look at is... according to my late great grandmother, she said count the days in november who hear thunder... each day accounts for a snowfall for the up coming winter.

Here's to hoping for a traditional November Severe Weather Season then!! Bring on the storms and then the blizzards rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-13, 10:35 am

people must read joe lindbergs latest blog on accuweather, which was friday... he is seeing strong similarities to wiinter of 76 -77... which is my analog i am using. he says he doesnt like what he is seeing.. he loves warm weather, he admits that. lol these cold fronts he says will only keep coming down stronger and get stronger from here on through winter.

by **snowdog** 2012-08-13, 10:44 am

Well our source region for cold is nearing a new record for ice and there is an abundance of heat in the Arctic for this time of the year (especially vs the late 70's). It will be interesting to see how this plays out and evolves during fall.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-13, 11:12 am

Don Sutherland on winter:

A thought concerning the prospects for winter blocking...

The June 2012 AO averaged -0.672 and the July AO has averaged +0.09 through July 30. Assuming the AO averages < 0 for the summer (June-August) timeframe, odds would favor the AO's averaging < 0 for the upcoming winter (December-February).

Since 1950, there were 38 cases during which the summer AO averaged < 0. 26/38 (68.4%) saw the winter AO also average < 0.

In cases when the summer AO averaged < 0, a winter AO < 0 was 1.4 times more likely than an AO > 0 during El Niño events. Winter 2009-10 was the most recent El Niño case that saw a negative winter AO.

In contrast, during those 38 cases, a winter AO > 0 was 2.9 times more likely than an AO < 0 during a La Niña. Winter 2011-12 was the most recent La Niña case that saw a positive winter AO.

In sum, if the summer 2012 AO averages < 0 and the upcoming winter experiences an El Niño (or even neutral ENSO conditions), there should be more blocking than last winter. Moreover, a blocky winter would appear more likely than not. Nevertheless, things are not yet cast in stone. Such developments as early-season Siberian snow cover expansion could provide a hint as to how things will turn out during Winter 2012-13.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34633-medium-range-discussion-summer-2012/page__st__175

by **Mrgolf** 2012-08-13, 2:10 pm

I guess most people know who joe bastardi is. he used to work for accuweather, but now he works for weatherbell analytics llc. He is seing something in the pacific that is signaling to him that this may be a very cold to brutal winter. Ive been keeping tabs on his facebook page.he was going for a cold winter to start with, but now he is saying -4 to -6 below avg for most of the winter! As we know, he has a tendancy to over hype stuff, which i wish he wouldnt do for the winter season.

Just go to google, and type in: facebook joe bastardi and he usually updates his stuff often. I dont have an acct with twitter, but i suppose people can follow him there also. IMO, it will come down to how strong nino ultimately gets and the qbo stage. its more important than people think. It was very negative during july, hence the neg nao, but the thing that does concern me is that when it flips positive, will the nao do that also? thats the million dollar question at this juncture. I suppose the ridge over alaska could save us, if one actually forms,in case the nao and ao arent negative.

I really believe some wxmets can forecast those inducies more than two weeks in advance, but im not sure which ones can, or at least have an idea the tendancy for those inducies to go either way. Perhaps toot can elaborate further on this one. rfl

Also, the euro monthlies for this month came in colder than last month and is showing a greater tendancy for blocking in alaska compared to last yr. I definitely read about that. Brett anderson commented about it, and he is supposed to be a a good met from accuweather gaah

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-13, 2:56 pm

Mrgolf wrote:I guess most people know who joe bastardi is. he used to work for accuweather, but now he works for weatherbell analytics llc. He is seing something in the pacific that is signaling to him that this may be a very cold to brutal winter. Ive been keeping tabs on his facebook page.he was going for a cold winter to start with, but now he is saying -4 to -6 below avg for most of the winter! As we know, he has a tendancy to over hype stuff, which i wish he wouldnt do for the winter season.

Just go to google, and type in: facebook joe bastardi and he usually updates his stuff often. I dont have an acct with twitter, but i suppose people can follow him there also. IMO, it will come down to how strong nino ultimately gets and the qbo stage. its more important than people think. It was very negative during july, hence the neg nao, but the thing that does concern me is that when it flips positive, will the nao do that also? thats the million dollar question at this juncture. I suppose the ridge over alaska could save us, if one actually forms,in case the nao and ao arent negative.

I really believe some wxmets can forecast those inducies more than two weeks in advance, but im not sure which ones can, or at least have an idea the tendancy for those inducies to go either way. Perhaps toot can elaborate further on this one.
Also, the euro monthlies for this month came in colder than last month and is showing a greater tendancy for blocking in alaska compared to last yr. I definitely read about that. Brett anderson commented about it, and he is supposed to be a a good met from accuweather

Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 N50tv9

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-13, 3:17 pm

Amazing!! I watched this video for an hour, and the bowl of popcorn never ran out! Where can I get one?

by **Toot** 2012-08-13, 7:20 pm

Mrgolf wrote:
I really believe some wxmets can forecast those inducies more than two weeks in advance, but im not sure which ones can, or at least have an idea the tendancy for those inducies to go either way. Perhaps toot can elaborate further on this one.

Nobody can accurately forecast the more important short cycle indices (PNA/NAO/AO/EPO) that are local to N.America more than two weeks in advance.

There are several correlations that can give you a percentage of the likelyhood of a local teleconnection's value at more than two weeks out .. but they dont always work out. Perfect example was last winter...The neg NAO summer/winter correlation was there. The favorable SST's were there in the Greenland area..but most forecasters (Including me) still busted on the cold winter that never was last year.

I know a couple that actually got it right last winter and one of those was the Farmers almanac..who I might mention has nailed the last 3-4 winter forecasts. People laugh at the Farmers Almanac but it has consistently took the CPC and others to school.. for years in terms of accuracy in long range forecasting. BTW I here they are going colder than normal for this winter but ive not seen anything official yet.

The negative NAO correlations are once again favorable for this coming winter.. and the weak Nino also favors colder than normal here.

Other than that..its just educated guessing this far out.

Meanwhile...check out the strong polar vortex in the higher latitudes. How this feature behaves in the next month or so will have a very big influence on how cold or warm this coming winter will be.

If it stays bottled up and strong like the image below..you can forget about all these cold and snowy winter forecasts im hearing about and seeing!!
Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 483989_295040040603755_1303858850_n

Winter 2012/2013 early look - Page 3 483989_295040040603755_1303858850_n

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-13, 10:00 pm

the farmers almanac, the ole one at that, is predicting a harsh winter for 2 thirds of the country... i saw previews of it... the polar vortex will change, way to early to go by that... the developing nino will get its act together this month, its already in motion now as we speak... i am hyped for this winter,,,, last winter i predicted a mild winter, unfortunetly i was right.

by **Toot** 2012-08-13, 10:09 pm

Nobody is going by the PV right now Bruce...Im just saying watch how it behaves and that will clue you in the earliest on how cold/warm this winter could be. People can talk MJO/QBO/PNA/NAO/ENSO/PDO/ANALOGS all they want and until they're blue in the face... but if the PV doesnt cooperate you can forget it.

Im not saying it will or it wont..just saying pay attention to it..it has a story to tell facepalm