Fall 2012 wx discussion

Well, I was dropping down fast was at 36 right at dusk, 32 at 7PM and calm winds. However, wind has kicked in again, and I'm up to 34 again. Can't win for loosing with radiational cooling here on the ridge. Oh well, we'll just see where we end up.

37.2 here with 2-5 MPH wind out of the NE. Expect a low of 28 in the AM if the wind will calm down.

Winds have been pretty calm here..had a 0.6 mph gust a few mins ago..lol

Yeah, I don't know about tonight guys. It was dropping pretty fast, but the wind has been steadily increasing, and the temp is now up to 37. Is there some sort of disturbance or something coming through, or is it the high pressure moving around or something. I was thinking we'd go calm and stay calm all night.

I am calm and have been all night

Im going with a low of 26 here at my house..we'll see

This location I'm at never ceases to amaze me. I bet the wind has increased to between 10-15mph and steady with higher gusts. Meanwhile the temp just keeps going up. This ridge definitely qualifies as a micro climate. Unless the wind calms down here, I will be lucky to reach freezing again tonight. The only thing I can think of here, is that the lower valley below me has cooled off faster than where i am, and air is rushing upslope on this ridge. I'm saving E and that appears to be the direction the wind is blowing from. I'm not accustomed to seeing these large variations bc we didn't have them as pronounced where I grew up. However, if anyone knows whats causing the crazy effects, i'd like to know.

Barometer is steady, not sure about a front or moving HPS. Temp 36.6. Wind now 1-4 MPH out of the N. Dew point at 27, so the possibility is there.

Well, despite the wind never dying down, I managed to get down to 26 degrees. No frost in my yard, but plenty down in lower areas. I saw on wbir, that Morristown was reporting 23 this AM Brrr

I also hit 26 early this morning...coldest temp yet here

Wind calmed down around 6:30 to 8:00 which allowed my temp to hit 27.0 exactly. Lowest (by a little) for this fall.

The above normal November temp predictions aren't going to materialize. 15 days into the month and Knoxville is running -3.5 degrees per Aldrich. I don't see enough above normal over the next two weeks to recover that to above normal for the month.

I have noticed that here too John. So far it seems majority of the models when they show a warm up in the extended it ends up not getting near as warm. Yet when its been showing colder weather they miss out on a few aspects and we seem to sometimes get a little lower then expected. Highs mainly been in the 50's here all month a day or two at 70ish shouldn't put us over the normal of like 62 I think it is for Nashville.

John1122 wrote:The above normal November temp predictions aren't going to materialize. 15 days into the month and Knoxville is running -3.5 degrees per Aldrich. I don't see enough above normal over the next two weeks to recover that to above normal for the month.

Yep..I was one of them expecting a warm November and I still wouldnt completely rule it out with such a strong PV over the Arctic circle..but it looks like my warm November forercast will bust! Im inclined to agree with you John with the AO/NAO progged to gradually head negative it will be hard for the second half of the month to overcome the cold anomaly below!

I would enjoy the warming temps the next few days as a ridge in the jet stream moves into the area. I wouldnt get used to it though as the ensembles look pretty cool to cold after what im calling THE last gasp of fall weather!!

Yeah, I think Winter's going to be getting going pretty soon

Does this change anything? I mean i've read on here more than once that a warm November could be a sign of a colder than average winter, or something like that. I have noticed also that it has been colder than forcasted at night.

VFL wrote:Does this change anything? I mean i've read on here more than once that a warm November could be a sign of a colder than average winter, or something like that. I have noticed also that it has been colder than forcasted at night.

Well... we dont have but about half of november's data.. the next 6-10 days are probably gonna be warmer than normal for the most part. I think the rubber band will snap right around the end of the month with a 2009 like December! Thats just my educated opinion and could very well be wrong!

Just checked wxsouth(Robert)'s website. Fwiw, he thinks a deep freeze is quite possible the first 10 days of Dec. To see his free archive, just go to wxsouth.com, and scroll to bottom of page November 2012.

man, longerrange gfs looks fridgid

tennessee storm09 wrote:man, longerrange gfs looks fridgid

any moisture to go with it?

Moisture to be had there is, but way south you will have to go to get it, lol, on 6z GFS. That would bring snow or frozen of some sorts to Central AL and GA. Suppression there, but if it continues, I'm sure the ole NW trend will occur.

Tonights personal forecast for myself!

CMC and Euro looking interesting next weekend...

Jmundie, what are they showing? Does any1 know?