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Fall 2012 wx discussion

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-13, 8:52 pm

Well, I was dropping down fast was at 36 right at dusk, 32 at 7PM and calm winds. However, wind has kicked in again, and I'm up to 34 again. Can't win for loosing with radiational cooling here on the ridge. Oh well, we'll just see where we end up.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by etnwx on 2012-11-13, 9:44 pm

37.2 here with 2-5 MPH wind out of the NE. Expect a low of 28 in the AM if the wind will calm down.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-13, 9:47 pm

Winds have been pretty calm here..had a 0.6 mph gust a few mins ago..lol

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-13, 9:55 pm

Yeah, I don't know about tonight guys. It was dropping pretty fast, but the wind has been steadily increasing, and the temp is now up to 37. Is there some sort of disturbance or something coming through, or is it the high pressure moving around or something. I was thinking we'd go calm and stay calm all night.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-13, 10:01 pm

I am calm and have been all night

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-13, 10:02 pm

Im going with a low of 26 here at my house..we'll see

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-13, 10:28 pm

This location I'm at never ceases to amaze me. I bet the wind has increased to between 10-15mph and steady with higher gusts. Meanwhile the temp just keeps going up. This ridge definitely qualifies as a micro climate. Unless the wind calms down here, I will be lucky to reach freezing again tonight. The only thing I can think of here, is that the lower valley below me has cooled off faster than where i am, and air is rushing upslope on this ridge. I'm saving E and that appears to be the direction the wind is blowing from. I'm not accustomed to seeing these large variations bc we didn't have them as pronounced where I grew up. However, if anyone knows whats causing the crazy effects, i'd like to know. wacko

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by etnwx on 2012-11-13, 10:53 pm

Barometer is steady, not sure about a front or moving HPS. Temp 36.6. Wind now 1-4 MPH out of the N. Dew point at 27, so the possibility is there.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-14, 8:18 am

Well, despite the wind never dying down, I managed to get down to 26 degrees. No frost in my yard, but plenty down in lower areas. I saw on wbir, that Morristown was reporting 23 this AM Brrr

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-14, 9:52 am

I also hit 26 early this morning...coldest temp yet here

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by etnwx on 2012-11-14, 2:34 pm

Wind calmed down around 6:30 to 8:00 which allowed my temp to hit 27.0 exactly. Lowest (by a little) for this fall.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-11-15, 2:14 am

The above normal November temp predictions aren't going to materialize. 15 days into the month and Knoxville is running -3.5 degrees per Aldrich. I don't see enough above normal over the next two weeks to recover that to above normal for the month.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-15, 2:30 am

I have noticed that here too John. So far it seems majority of the models when they show a warm up in the extended it ends up not getting near as warm. Yet when its been showing colder weather they miss out on a few aspects and we seem to sometimes get a little lower then expected. Highs mainly been in the 50's here all month a day or two at 70ish shouldn't put us over the normal of like 62 I think it is for Nashville.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-15, 7:49 am

John1122 wrote:The above normal November temp predictions aren't going to materialize. 15 days into the month and Knoxville is running -3.5 degrees per Aldrich. I don't see enough above normal over the next two weeks to recover that to above normal for the month.

Yep..I was one of them expecting a warm November and I still wouldnt completely rule it out with such a strong PV over the Arctic circle..but it looks like my warm November forercast will bust! Im inclined to agree with you John with the AO/NAO progged to gradually head negative it will be hard for the second half of the month to overcome the cold anomaly below!

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-15, 5:05 pm

I would enjoy the warming temps the next few days as a ridge in the jet stream moves into the area. I wouldnt get used to it though as the ensembles look pretty cool to cold after what im calling THE last gasp of fall weather!!



Last edited by Toot on 2012-11-15, 5:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-15, 5:20 pm

Yeah, I think Winter's going to be getting going pretty soon rock on

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by VFL on 2012-11-15, 5:57 pm

Does this change anything? I mean i've read on here more than once that a warm November could be a sign of a colder than average winter, or something like that. I have noticed also that it has been colder than forcasted at night.
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-15, 6:05 pm

VFL wrote:Does this change anything? I mean i've read on here more than once that a warm November could be a sign of a colder than average winter, or something like that. I have noticed also that it has been colder than forcasted at night.

Well... we dont have but about half of november's data.. the next 6-10 days are probably gonna be warmer than normal for the most part. I think the rubber band will snap right around the end of the month with a 2009 like December! Thats just my educated opinion and could very well be wrong!

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-15, 8:47 pm

Just checked wxsouth(Robert)'s website. Fwiw, he thinks a deep freeze is quite possible the first 10 days of Dec. To see his free archive, just go to wxsouth.com, and scroll to bottom of page November 2012.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-16, 5:48 am

man, longerrange gfs looks fridgid cold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-11-16, 7:43 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:man, longerrange gfs looks fridgid cold
any moisture to go with it? Twisted Evil
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-16, 8:18 am

Moisture to be had there is, but way south you will have to go to get it, lol, on 6z GFS. That would bring snow or frozen of some sorts to Central AL and GA. Suppression there, but if it continues, I'm sure the ole NW trend will occur.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-17, 10:46 am

Tonights personal forecast for myself!


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-17, 3:50 pm

CMC and Euro looking interesting next weekend...

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-11-17, 6:21 pm

Jmundie, what are they showing? Does any1 know?

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

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