Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **jmundie** 2012-01-08, 12:10 am

Stove -

I think straight is probably onto something, but I think it's the second wave... Our best chance of a miller a being thurs- Saturday.

Canadian looks really good and really cold through 144 on the Canadian site. Waiting on good images from psu.

by Vanster67 2012-01-08, 7:41 am

Morning all. The latest run of the 6Z GFS shows some love for the time periods of 1/12 and 17th thru the 20th of this month. Course its just an OP run, still, it sure looks nice. I also liked watching Frank Straights latest Video. Hope still lives ( and will continue to do so. popcorn

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 7:50 am

Yep, GFS turned snowy with that run. Euro is pointing to a similar trough setup. If that is the new pattern we settle into I think we may be in business.

cold

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 8:47 am

DT of wxrisk:

Historic pattern flip coming?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-08, 9:03 am

Stovepipe wrote:DT of wxrisk:

Historic pattern flip coming?

just got through reading the whole thing, very very interesting indeed... quite plausable.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-08, 9:07 am

i know its been a very rough and boring start to winter, but i really think from mid january to possible mid february somethig big is llikely winter wise is on the horizon... i just hope i dont jinx it by saying that.

by **Snowmania** 2012-01-08, 11:08 am

Toot, Where did you find the Frank Striaght info? On his last video update I saw nothing like this.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 11:15 am

Snowmania wrote:Toot, Where did you find the Frank Striaght info? On his last video update I saw nothing like this.

I'm not Toot, but Frank's latest video posted at 6:45pm Saturday, entitled "Stormy Short Range, Interesting Long Range", is what Van and I are referencing above. Starting around the 4:00 minute mark he discusses what I posted.

by **Snowmania** 2012-01-08, 12:11 pm

ok i ll look again thanx

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-08, 12:20 pm

looking at the 12zgfs, i know its mid range... liking that system around 18th. 240 to 262 hour range.. negatvie titled trough, big southern lakes cutter plenty of deep moisture out ahead, looks like some severe may be in the offering, with cold crashing behind the frontal passage.. we could get severe and winter both out of that setup the gfs is showing.. course it change 10 dozen times. got my eye out

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 1:22 pm

Probably flip again tonight but ...

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 19 12zgfsnao

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 19 12zgfsao

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-08, 3:44 pm

I really don't think the models have a handle on the current situation yet, the GFS is starting to come back to the CMC though.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 4:07 pm

CMC lost the storm lol.

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-08, 4:09 pm

Stovepipe wrote:CMC lost the storm lol.

I meant cold wise lol sorry for not clarifying that.

by **Toot** 2012-01-08, 4:12 pm

Looking like we could finally be in a deeply negative NAO/AO pattern by Febuary. The next few weeks are going to be interesting

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-08, 4:15 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Looking like we could finally be in a deeply negative NAO/AO pattern by Febuary. The next few weeks are going to be interesting

I really hope you are right, I can not stand this mild weather right now.

by **Toot** 2012-01-08, 4:16 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I really hope you are right, I can not stand this mild weather right now.

Its a whopping 41 degrees here..lol

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-08, 4:18 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:I really hope you are right, I can not stand this mild weather right now.

Its a whopping 41 degrees here..lol

You are north of the stationary front.... I was around 60 yesterday. Right now I am at 55.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 11:39 pm

Ahhaagghghghahhhhh, the madness continues.

Robert:

I've studied a lot of blocking but don't recall any that has this look really. It's quite anomalous and the models are going to go through fits the next few days. But I'd say the Alaskan block combined with West Europe/Scandi block would lead to depressed flow in the US. With a supressed, split flow eminating from the Pacific. The vortex in Canada should rotate spokes of cold air into the US, as opposed to drop a tremendous load all at once. This would favor a very active and cold U.S. A potent southern wave or opening cut-off that remains supressed could be an ice/snow maker.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-08, 11:56 pm

With the possible exception of a courtesy flizzard on the 13th, the 0Z GFS has no love for Tennessee. Maaaybe a fantasy snow at the end but even that is pushing it. On to the Euro... or better yet let's just skip till like Thursday and see what they're showing then.

slap

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-01-09, 12:42 am

Stove, Toot, etc,,,Let the nastiness begin! Uncle Nasty is here to save the Winter. Found this forum tonight and it appears a lot of folks jumped ship from a place I won't name. Anyway, it's good to be here. I will try my best to work my nasty mojo and pull a Winter storm out of my a, er, beer bottle.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-09, 12:46 am

Uncle Nasty in the house! Welcome to Toots!

rock on

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-09, 1:04 am

Not that it matters at all, but just to illustrate the flip flop teleconnection predictions of the operationals, compare these 0z's to the 12z's posted above.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 19 00zgfsnao

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 19 00zgfsnao

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 19 00zgfsao

by **John1122** 2012-01-09, 1:47 am

I have not got much faith in the models past 4-5 days right now. They are having major flip-flops with every run.

I have some small hope of maybe getting another .5-1 inch with the next upslope event.

by **Reb** 2012-01-09, 2:18 am

seems to me like we have been saying the same thing for months and months. itll get colder in time etc etc etc...until i see an extended period of cold i am not going to buy in. albeit im not writing off a chance at some snow at some point.

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