Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by Vanster67 2012-01-09, 6:58 am

AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! facepalm

Guess what I just looked at..... Hey Mon, I tink I be movin to the Islands!!! Jamaica Mon!!! The heck with this noshow snow, I'll take a bunch of sand and a cold one, and a toasty (TASTY) babe anyday.

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-09, 8:01 am

Vanster67 wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! Guess what I just looked at..... Hey Mon, I tink I be movin to the Islands!!! Jamaica Mon!!! The heck with this noshow snow, I'll take a bunch of sand and a cold one, and a toasty (TASTY) babe anyday.

Oh, I'm with ya, Van! I love snow, but I'll take the beach anyday. You got room for a stowaway, Mon?

by Vanster67 2012-01-09, 8:08 am

The models driving me crazy, but I reckon its the pattern flip bugging them out. I long for the snow too. I still am very positive about it. Its so far up in the air, we just might get surprised. But when the model gets me down, I tink of flyin to Jamaica MON. And yes, Stowaways are most welcome!! hate to sauce

alone!!

by Guest 2012-01-09, 8:09 am

Whoa whoa, easy now folks... don't want to end up leaving only to hear that there was a blizzard for the state, now do ya?? Evil or Very Mad

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-09, 8:19 am

Tom23 wrote:Whoa whoa, easy now folks... don't want to end up leaving only to hear that there was a blizzard for the state, now do ya??

Eh, we're just being weenies. But if we leave and it blizzards, we'll you Fedex us some snow. Cool

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-09, 8:29 am

Vanster67 wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! Guess what I just looked at..... Hey Mon, I tink I be movin to the Islands!!! Jamaica Mon!!! The heck with this noshow snow, I'll take a bunch of sand and a cold one, and a toasty (TASTY) babe anyday.

I feel you Van. It's like a train wreck, hard to not look at it but it's painful to see. The 12z Euro and the 06z GFS are in decent agreement on the flizzard for the 13th. Beyond that it's just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks. I'm really going to try to not model hug until the latter half of this week just to preserve my sanity.

facepalm

by Vanster67 2012-01-09, 8:32 am

We could always live in Cordova Alaska, where they have received 216 inches of Snow in about three weeks!! Thats right!! 216 inches!! 18 feet of pure white goodness. I don't know tho, that would be rough, and I'm sure they're probably used to big numbers like that. But 18 feet . WOW!! rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 8:32 am

Vanster67 wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! Guess what I just looked at..... Hey Mon, I tink I be movin to the Islands!!! Jamaica Mon!!! The heck with this noshow snow, I'll take a bunch of sand and a cold one, and a toasty (TASTY) babe anyday.

i think i second that vanster, i have about had enough of this crummy pattern,,, starting to think this may be a year without a winter... i am ready to head to jamaica with you... sun, a cold one, and most of all, check out the babes in the thongs... i am tired of getting my hopes up. stoned

by Guest 2012-01-09, 8:36 am

Cough cough bunchofweenies cough cough.....

hahaahaha jk

by Vanster67 2012-01-09, 8:37 am

ha, ha, ha!! I hear ya Stove!! I cannot seem to tear myself away from it, I feel it turns so quickly and wildly.. Its exciting when it looks good!!! And blahh when not so good. I can only wonder if the flizzard will shut down I-40 out here in Monterey like that 1/2 incher we had a week or so ago. popcorn

by Vanster67 2012-01-09, 8:44 am

Tom!! Us weenies?? Bro, you live in a Hot dog Bun!! The only thing you have in your refrigerator during the winter is Ketchup, Mustard, Relish. Your FAV song is " I wish I was a Oscar Myer Weenie'. Just kiddin dude!! There is some snow weenie in everyone.

by **snowdog** 2012-01-09, 9:01 am

The models did this last year in December when the pattern was changing. I wouldn't get too emotional if they show a 12" snow or 70 degrees. They will sort themselves out in a few days.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 9:40 am

snowdog wrote:The models did this last year in December when the pattern was changing. I wouldn't get too emotional if they show a 12" snow or 70 degrees. They will sort themselves out in a few days.

i agree to some degreee, but come on man, if models showed a foot snow... this place would come unglued. popcorn

by Guest 2012-01-09, 9:44 am

Vanster67 wrote:Tom!! Us weenies?? Bro, you live in a Hot dog Bun!! The only thing you have in your refrigerator during the winter is Ketchup, Mustard, Relish. Your FAV song is " I wish I was a Oscar Myer Weenie'. Just kiddin dude!! There is some snow weenie in everyone.

How could you leave off the fact that I drive the Oscar Myer Weenie Mobile around town during the Winter??? facepalm

haha jp dude.

by **Toot** 2012-01-09, 9:54 am

Reb wrote:seems to me like we have been saying the same thing for months and months. itll get colder in time etc etc etc...until i see an extended period of cold i am not going to buy in. albeit im not writing off a chance at some snow at some point.

Reb...this is the first time the AO forecasts have supported widespread and more sustained cold. Its coming

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 20 AiuIuIWCAAAmh-D

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 20 AiuIuIWCAAAmh-D

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 10:01 am

hopefully snowdog is correct, the models could be struggling cause change is in the air... only hope thats the case, if not, i dont know what to say...

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 10:04 am

hell, stop n think about it, the biggest snowfall on this side of the rockies came back in late october... that freak storm in the northeast. somethiing has to give.

by **snowdog** 2012-01-09, 10:15 am

The models haven't been that good in the old pattern, now you throw another wrench in there with a pattern change and you get the crap results we are getting now. Toot is right, it's coming. Just sit patiently and wait. The models will get better as we come out of the old pattern into the new one. That is one reason why I haven't posted much lately with model data.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-09, 11:36 am

Robert:

The GFS is bringing an excellent classic case of Southeast/Tenn Valley /Carolina Winter storms , beginning late this week. It may be not deep enough on the first trough Thur-Saturday, the ecm was much deeper and slower/colder. But the 6z GFS also trended this way by not burying the sw low too far out, and shooting up a Pac. NW ridge which helps to send energy down the rockies and captures the sw Baja system. Not sure which way to go with this, but if the GFS is right, then overunning snow and ice would spread quickly across the Red River/North Texas, then east across northern Miss/Ark and into Tn pretty quickly. There is a good cold airmass thats deep on both sides, and gets reinforced thanks to the Alaskan vortex dropping south, which dislodges the cold in Canada. Around 144 hour it begins to develop the sw system too strongly and brings in warmer air aloft in teh Southeast.

this is a classic example of starting with big picture and working in as time draws near. Blocking first--change the flow---cold air pours south (based on the high lat blocking which usually occurs)--then systems "pop' up when actually they have to based on synoptic meterology. Not saying this is going to be the one yet, the first one may be really hard to forecast since wer'e entering a new pattern, but after this next 5 days it might get a littler easier to do a weekly forecast. Maybe. The run has 2 blocks and rotates them to good positions, and I still firmly believe pieces will line up at some time frame in there for a good weather event in part of the Southeast. The blocking looks a given now.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 12:05 pm

folks are going ape shit over the 12z gfs, thats just came out

by **Reb** 2012-01-09, 12:08 pm

yeah its pretty intense. 6z hinted at a 12z solution. pretty crazy looking storm. prob end up too warm

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 12:11 pm

Reb wrote:yeah its pretty intense. 6z hinted at a 12z solution. pretty crazy looking storm. prob end up too warm

yep, great point reb. that whats i fear, another cold rain. bah

by **snowdog** 2012-01-09, 1:00 pm

DT has shown on his blog the last 2 days the position of the Polar Vortex moving into the north central Canada by mid month (hey I was talking about that a week or so ago) and it looks like it may stay there for some time. So some really cold air is going to be readily available to tap. Now add in an active southern stream and you have ingredients for possible fun (current 12z shows this). Without a -NAO (yet, I think it is coming towards the middle to end of Jan.) we are going to need more of a right time right place but at least now all the ingredients are there. I think in the next 2 weeks we get at least one decent snow somewhere in the south. If I were to guess it would be somewhere around the I-40 corridor north into central KY.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-09, 1:10 pm

snowdog wrote:DT has shown on his blog the last 2 days the position of the Polar Vortex moving into the north central Canada by mid month (hey I was talking about that a week or so ago) and it looks like it may stay there for some time. So some really cold air is going to be readily available to tap. Now add in an active southern stream and you have ingredients for possible fun (current 12z shows this). Without a -NAO (yet, I think it is coming towards the middle to end of Jan.) we are going to need more of a right time right place but at least now all the ingredients are there. I think in the next 2 weeks we get at least one decent snow somewhere in the south. If I were to guess it would be somewhere around the I-40 corridor north into central KY.

thats not a bad position, lets just hope the pv can come even further south later this month. like the canadian usa border. cold

by **snowdog** 2012-01-09, 4:00 pm

DT seems to be getting more excited by the day.

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