Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **secleveland** 2012-02-04, 11:06 pm

i am 2 dam dum to find the chatroom but just need to say sorry Tom i was wrong no ice today. 0-1

by **Toot** 2012-02-04, 11:08 pm

The chatroom is at the bottom of the homepage...lol...just click on "Log In"

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-05, 8:38 am

man, the 0z euro really sucked balls , even starting to show the west more troughy and small ridge in east... pacific jet is really hurting us to.

by **snowdog** 2012-02-05, 8:47 am

Not only did the Euro suck balls, we are losing the indices. No -NAO to be found and the AO is headed back towards neutral. So we are looking out toward the end of Feb with no real hope and by then we are fighting climo.

by **Toot** 2012-02-05, 8:55 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:man, the 0z euro really sucked balls , even starting to show the west more troughy and small ridge in east... pacific jet is really hurting us to.

Yeah its an extreme outlier as its the only model breaking the PNA ridge down too early as mentioned by the HPC

HPC

THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE PREFERRED
CHOICE FOR DAY 3-5 BEFORE ABANDONING THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
ALTOGETHER BY DAY 6

The CMC ensemble mean for day 10 is in agreement with the GFS ensemble mean in day 10 with both of them continuing the PNA ridge in the west while the euro doesnt

Here is the GFS ensemble mean temp departures in the extended past 10 days
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 35 D15

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 35 D15

Lets hope they're correct if you want cold and snow

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-05, 11:18 am

if i am reading the latest gfs ensembles right, its trying to put the nao back more positive in long range scared

by **Toot** 2012-02-05, 11:39 am

Me too Bruce...wouldnt surprise me one bit if we cruised right into spring during late Febuary. Unlike last year at this time I am now looking forward to the coming severe season rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-05, 11:43 am

Toot wrote:Me too Bruce...wouldnt surprise me one bit if we cruised right into spring during late Febuary. Unlike last year at this time I am now looking forward to the coming severe season

no doubt about it toot, its fixing to be time to start rock n rolling brother rock on

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-06, 8:37 am

06z GFS has significant snow events at hours 240, 300, and 360. This could be a fun month folks.

by **jmundie** 2012-02-06, 9:06 am

Stovepipe wrote:06z GFS has significant snow events at hours 240, 300, and 360. This could be a fun month folks.

It brings back the -nao. Not really supported by the ensembles, but we'll see. If that block shows up, regardless of the pna, you can betcher bottom dollar there will be snow.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-06, 11:59 am

12z GFS still has some fantasy stuff in the long range. Apparently there is no sign of blocking though.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 12:17 pm

Stovepipe wrote:12z GFS still has some fantasy stuff in the long range. Apparently there is no sign of blocking though.

yep, thats correct stove... thats what is killing us, cant get any blocking...which means were going to have to thread the needle to get a winter storm to happen for us. scared

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-06, 2:51 pm

Don Sutherland:

Over the past two days, the GFS ensembles have shifted from a negative to severely negative AO in the extended range to a positive one. In addition, the ongoing La Niña has strengthened somewhat. As a result, I have stronger confidence that any cold that occurs over the next week or so will likely prove transient in North America. Hence, much of North America will likely be milder than normal during the February 16-22 timeframe.

Composite temperature anomalies based on ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.55°C to -0.70°C, an AO of +0.50 to +1.00, and PNA of 0.00 to +1.00 are below:

In North America, I suspect that readings in Alaska will be near normal to perhaps somewhat below normal. The one change I would make with respect to the chart for Europe is that the cold in Europe would extend eastward from where it is centered, meaning that the eastern sections showing warm anomalies would be cold, as well. The rest of the composite temperature anomalies for North America and Europe appear reasonable.

In sum, any cold in eastern North America will likely remain transient. A cold pattern probably won't lock in.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 3:06 pm

i am getting a good feeling about a big storm around 16th to 18th period. the gfs has been hinting at it for days now. todays 12gfs showing a bomb apps runner... nice heavy wet snow for parts of west tn. and all way back to little rock arkie... if we had more blocking, all of tennessee would get hit very hard... but sure things will change, hopfeully for the better.

by **snowdog** 2012-02-06, 3:32 pm

I'm not all that excited here in MiddleTN. The big possible storm that everyone is gaga over wouldn't benefit us here in MiddleTN unless it phased waaaaay earlier than is being modeled now. Otherwise we are eating the northern fringe crumbs which we have done the past 2 winters.

The possible small storm this mid-week, is really weak and I don't even know if it could peter out much if any precip. Then there are also boundary layer concerns on top of that.

As others have said, until we get some blocking the chances of seeing a decent snow is very small (in middleTN). This is just one of those sucky winters. Better to accept it and move on than trying to make chicken salad out of chicken poop.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-06, 3:47 pm

LOL well said snowdog. Without better run to run consistency it's hard to get very excited about any of this. We get two good runs in a row then two crap runs. It's enough to drive a person batty. There is still time for something to happen but I'm approaching burnout for this winter season. I'm about ready to shift my focus to spring and preparing the vegetable garden...

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 4:46 pm

if nothing dont happen winter wise the next 2 weeks, which i doubt it will... i am turning my full focus on spring severe chase time... bottom line

by **Mrgolf** 2012-02-06, 4:58 pm

The gfs does show a bigstorm in the 16-18th time frame. The key is if we can develop any kind of blocking,which is very suspect. The mjo is a very important factor in winter. The right phases can mean a colder stormier pattern overall. I believe they are 8,1,and 2. We may be fixing to enter 8 shortly,but im not sure we can make it to phases 1,and 2. As we all know,the pacific jet has been way to progressive this winter,actually alot more than normal in lanina years.IMO,its been aided alot by the stronger than normal -pdo. its been one of the coldest pdo's in recent memory. If we want to see a true winterevent, we dont want the trough axis too far west. If that happens,the storm phases real close to us. We dont want the trough axis too far east. The storm goes out to sea like for this wknds storm. there is no blocking to keep it along the coastline. The phase happens too late.As always,its a threading the needle type situation like bruce alluded to earlier. Even in a perfect winterpattern,its still tuff. facepalm

by **Toot** 2012-02-06, 5:22 pm

Lol...I just love how people know the exact track and storm behaivor for a storm thats still about a week out.

This post is not pointed at any one person in this thread its just my two cents after reading the last few posts of the thread

by **snowdog** 2012-02-06, 5:25 pm

Stovepipe wrote:LOL well said snowdog. Without better run to run consistency it's hard to get very excited about any of this. We get two good runs in a row then two crap runs. It's enough to drive a person batty. There is still time for something to happen but I'm approaching burnout for this winter season. I'm about ready to shift my focus to spring and preparing the vegetable garden...

You do know once you reach burn-out and get ready to plant that garden we will finally get a huge -NAO in spring and get 3 weeks of well below average temps and cloudy cold nasty rain. But since it will be spring, not quite cold enough for snow. That mother nature was a real beeyatch this winter.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 5:42 pm

snowdog wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:LOL well said snowdog. Without better run to run consistency it's hard to get very excited about any of this. We get two good runs in a row then two crap runs. It's enough to drive a person batty. There is still time for something to happen but I'm approaching burnout for this winter season. I'm about ready to shift my focus to spring and preparing the vegetable garden...

You do know once you reach burn-out and get ready to plant that garden we will finally get a huge -NAO in spring and get 3 weeks of well below average temps and cloudy cold nasty rain. But since it will be spring, not quite cold enough for snow. That mother nature was a real beeyatch this winter.

as long as this la nina continue to hold, like cpc is saying through spring... it will will very hard to contan any negative nao ... get to mid summer, we may see that happen, as the enso changes towards a weak nino

by **snowdog** 2012-02-06, 5:53 pm

Last winter was nina and we had no problem holding a -NAO. I'm not saying it will happen but at some point the -NAO will show up. The longer it stays above positive the greater likelihood of a prolonged -NAO showing up. Bastardi posted something that showed a 2 to 3 week lag in cold outbreaks here in the US that follow severe cold outbreaks over Europe. As I have been saying for a while, I wouldn't be surprised to see a cold spring this year.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 6:03 pm

snowdog wrote:Last winter was nina and we had no problem holding a -NAO. I'm not saying it will happen but at some point the -NAO will show up. The longer it stays above positive the greater likelihood of a prolonged -NAO showing up. Bastardi posted something that showed a 2 to 3 week lag in cold outbreaks here in the US that follow severe cold outbreaks over Europe. As I have been saying for a while, I wouldn't be surprised to see a cold spring this year.

we lost the neg nao back early february of last winter though snowdog, there will be some up n downs in spriing, that wll only id in the instability of a severe outbreak... speaking of severe weather, the big storm system around the 16th. the 18z has a severe look now, i love all this model madness lol!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-08, 9:49 am

Don Sutherland:

Several quick thoughts:

1. Yesterday's AO was revised to -2.076.
2. Today, the AO rose somewhat further to -1.847.
3. The GFS ensembles are even more aggressive in forecasting a positive to perhaps strongly postive AO in the extended range.
4. The GFS continues to forecast a decline in the PNA in the extended range.

As a result, the weekend/perhaps early week cold shot will likely quickly yield to moderation. Therefore, as has been the case all winter long, the cold won't lock into the East. Before then, some parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and perhaps extreme southern New England could experience a light snowfall or flurries later today and tonight. Another possibility for a light snow event could exist during the weekend should a system form along the boundary of a cold front that will be responsible for the temporary cooldown.

Finally, there may be growing potential that the closing 7-10 days of the month could witness a return of cooler than normal readings in the Pacific Northwest.

by **Toot** 2012-02-08, 8:38 pm

If you believe the MJO has influences on winter weather then it should be an awesome Febuary as it enters into phases 8,1,2 and 3.....Personally I think its worthless during winter but to each his own pffft

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 35 AlKyCKsCQAAo8dM

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