Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-12, 5:20 pm

Good write up Toot.

I've been reading that it's possible this thing moves in quicker than the models are showing (and out faster). If that is the case then the chances of more frozen precip are greater. Some have also said that in that scenario there could be "fingers" of precip that streak out ahead of the main batch that could cause some good locally heavy snowfall.

As of right now, I'm not really sure what to expect. I mean when I look at the RPM and WRF I see what appears to be nothing but rain as it moves across TN, getting weaker on the northern fringes with each frame. Then I see things like this:

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 35aueyw

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 35aueyw

Which suggest that parts of north GA may not even transition all the way back to rain. Such a difficult event to forecast. I'm very curious to see how this plays out. Honestly I'll be shocked if I wake up to wintry precip Tuesday morning here in the valley. But stranger things have happened.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 5:21 pm

It should be noted that by moderate that I mean 2-4 inches. I probably should have used a different word than moderate there.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 5:24 pm

I will be bumfuzzled if Atlanta sees a flake...lolz...what in the world lmao

by **John1122** 2012-02-12, 5:29 pm

I'm personally thinking .5 to 1.5 will probably be about max for any part of East Tennessee.

The timing sort of stinks with it. We'll be clouding up during the absolute warmest part of the day, which will help hold temps up at night in an already iffy situation.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 5:35 pm

Here is HUN...they are pretty much totally disagreeing with peachtree city...lol

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 Image2

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-12, 5:42 pm

they are about have another melt down over at the other forum popcorn

funny as hell

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-12, 6:05 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:they are about have another melt down over at the other forum funny as hell

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 1zodoci

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-12, 6:10 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:they are about have another melt down over at the other forum funny as hell

Someone can move this post if need be but I refuse to post on that other site you mention. Seems that if you are not in the click, you better not disagree or question them.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 6:11 pm

lmfao at stove lmao

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 6:23 pm

Perfect example of why you cant use just the 540 line hurry

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 Thck

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 Usa

by **John1122** 2012-02-12, 6:31 pm

540 works best at elevations under 1500 feet.

The area where than snow is falling is 2500-3500 feet in elevation mostly. 546 is in play at those elevations.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 6:38 pm

Good point John...and I do agree with you...(540 works best at low elevations) but there are many spots recieving snow tonight and their elevation is below 1500. I was just pointing out you cant just look at 540 when elevation and such come into play.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 6:41 pm

Meanwhile look at how deep those returns are in the Texas Panhandle drool

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 LBB_loop

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-12, 6:44 pm

Stovepipe wrote:

lmfao, dude, thats a classic there stove... i didnt mean to get off the snow topic... sorry

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 6:46 pm

The biggest problem I see is the dry air....you may very well be cold enough but by the time the virga works itself down to the surface then you may be too warm...its a touch and go situation here in TN yikes

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-12, 6:54 pm

Toot wrote:The biggest problem I see is the dry air....you may very well be cold enough but by the time the virga works itself down to the surface then you may be too warm...its a touch and go situation here in TN

toot, spc seems thee could be some thunderstorm activity down to the south, could this enhance our precip with extra lift here... or could that hurt us with more waa pushing up from the south... interesting indeed.. foothills has a good explanation on this system by the way.

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-12, 7:03 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:they are about have another melt down over at the other forum funny as hell

Someone can move this post if need be but I refuse to post on that other site you mention. Seems that if you are not in the click, you better not disagree or question them.

Thats exactly how it is there I even told one of the admins over there in pm and they said if I dont like the way its run over there I have the right to leave. So I did somewhat lol.

But yea News 2 basically is calling this as a rain mixed with sleet and a few snow flakes changing to all rain during the night as warmer air makes its way it. I so hope they eat them words tomorrow afternoon when were looking at 1-3inches.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 7:14 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:toot, spc seems thee could be some thunderstorm activity down to the south, could this enhance our precip with extra lift here... or could that hurt us with more waa pushing up from the south... interesting indeed.. foothills has a good explanation on this system by the way.

It really depends on how fast it takes warm air advection to do its dirty work. Places in southern TN COULD benefit from the deep moisture around the very convective activity to its south. Its a very complex system and im not sure any one forecaster or forecast office is completely correct. One model shows this....one model shows that. With that said...any unelevated snow accumulations are looking very light IMO.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-12, 7:51 pm

I really like what the EURO is showing and honestly it has been the most consistant model so far. I think it is really including dynamic cooling. Plus the GFS and NAM start warmer for some reason. I mean if we are socked in with clouds tommrow there is no way tempretures are going to go up all that much. Plus with the wetbulbing and dynamic cooling I think things will be colder then expected.

by **Toot** 2012-02-12, 9:33 pm

Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat - Page 5 K2e99s

lol...im an idiot!!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-12, 9:36 pm

Toot wrote:

lol...im an idiot!!

man, what a set of lips on a woman... lol!

.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-12, 9:43 pm

LMAO!

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-12, 9:50 pm

Toot wrote:

lol...im an idiot!!

Now come and clean the beer off of my screen. lol!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-12, 9:54 pm

wow, i like the trend on the 0z nam... qpf up .5o at least. and tad colder for west tn.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-12, 10:04 pm

my 9 oclock obs. 23 f. with dew point 15. dew seems to be risen a little quicker than i though, this may keep me from getting colder than forecasted 2 nite. which was 17...at least the air is moisten up little quicker than i thought... b nice if the precip can move in from the sw little quicker than forecasted tomorrow. we will see...

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