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Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 10:36 am

Road conditions tell the story in Arkansas:

http://www.arkansashighways.com/Road/mapopt.htm

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 11:03 am

Welp, Memphis is up to 37 degrees. It'll be interesting to see if/how much that drops when that slug of precip hits.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-02-13, 11:10 am

The temp is 34 here. Be interesting to see how far we go into the slug of precip before it starts reaching the ground. I will give updates.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 11:11 am

Thanks DW, I'll be interested to hear them.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 11:28 am

MRX says "Not gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent at this juncture."



000
FXUS64 KMRX 131500
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO
REMOVE EARLY WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CHILLY TEMPS THIS MORNING
WITH COLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS COLD AIR MASS
LOOKS TO CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXED PCPN LATE TONIGHT
JUST PAST DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT...WITH AN
AREA OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVING INTO SE TN GENERALLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODEL AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLD AIR SHOULD GET
TRAPPED IN VALLEYS OF POLK COUNTY INTO CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES
OF SW NC. THIS IS ALSO TRUE FOR VALLEYS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN MONROE
COUNTY. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE A LIGHT SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND PERHAPS UP
TO 1/10 INCH OF ICE. THUS I OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...FROM 07Z TO 15Z TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
RAIN AFTER THAT TIME. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY AND IN LINE WITH
WINTER WEATHER DESK GRAPHIC FOR DAY ONE. THANKS TO GSP AND FFC FOR
COORDINATION.

MOST FORECAST GRID CHANGES WERE TO COVER THE ADVISORY PERIOD...BUT
POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED ON TUESDAY. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
MAX AND MIN TEMP GRIDS...WHICH WERE A BIT CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM
MOS NUMBERS.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-13, 11:35 am

Stove I just saw something pretty cool. My wife bought me an Acurite wireless weather station for Xmas. Shows indoor/outdoor temps with RH and has a graphic for futurecast (12 hours in the future). It has usually nailed any rain event we have had. I really didn't read the owners manual but I peeked at it and the graphic shows a big cloud and instead of the usual rain graphics it has nice round snow flakes coming down.
If this bad boy turns out correct I guess Costco is the place to go to get a 12 hour forecast instead of local mets. The weekend mets here have all been saying nothing but rain, with a SLIGHT chance of a brief mix .Have to work tonight so I'll miss out on the fun if it occurs.
Good luck on the snow up there.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 12:39 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:Stove I just saw something pretty cool. My wife bought me an Acurite wireless weather station for Xmas. Shows indoor/outdoor temps with RH and has a graphic for futurecast (12 hours in the future). It has usually nailed any rain event we have had. I really didn't read the owners manual but I peeked at it and the graphic shows a big cloud and instead of the usual rain graphics it has nice round snow flakes coming down.
If this bad boy turns out correct I guess Costco is the place to go to get a 12 hour forecast instead of local mets. The weekend mets here have all been saying nothing but rain, with a SLIGHT chance of a brief mix .Have to work tonight so I'll miss out on the fun if it occurs.
Good luck on the snow up there.

LOL Nasty, that device might just be as accurate or more accurate this time. You might be in one of the better spots for this. Expecting just rain up here but hoping for a miracle.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-13, 12:52 pm

Hell, I think it wasw only $50.00 and it stands about a foot tall.

Here is the snow shot from a few minutes ago. If it pans out I'll laugh.


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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 1:01 pm

We have a streaker about to enter Alabama.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Reb on 2012-02-13, 1:10 pm

lol!

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-13, 1:15 pm

Expecting frozen precip for most of the valley...
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. THEN MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PCPN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE MIXED PCPN WILL LIKELY INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE 14/09Z TO 14/15Z PERIOD FOR AT LEAST CHA AND TYS.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-13, 1:20 pm

Stovepipe wrote:We have a streaker about to enter Alabama.


That movie is funny as Hell. See if you can get Farrell to streak some frozen slop to E TN.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by secleveland on 2012-02-13, 1:29 pm

It up to 42 here

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-13, 1:34 pm

just got word from a friend, snowing n sleet being reported in south memphis, temps down to 35

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 4:09 pm

Just talked to someone in Jackson, snow is coming down there as of 3pm central time.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-13, 4:20 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Just talked to someone in Jackson, snow is coming down there as of 3pm central time.
yes sir i can confirm that, first flake around 3 03 cst,

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-02-13, 4:21 pm

The first flakes in Dyersburg at 302. Starting to get with it pretty good now.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-13, 4:24 pm

I am stuck at 40 degrees right now..

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-02-13, 4:32 pm

38 here and dew point 17 but it is snowing. stoned

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-13, 4:33 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:38 here and dew point 17 but it is snowing. stoned
That is very good news for me!!

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 4:33 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I am stuck at 40 degrees right now..

Memphis topped out at 40 when the sleet began, looks like they are still at 38 at the airport and last I heard it was still coming down.

Edit: Airport reporting light snow now at 38.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 4:35 pm

So far it seems that the WRF and RPM were not correct with precip types in west TN. Hope they are off for the rest of the state. But, of course, Arkansas is now changing over to rain.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-13, 4:37 pm

Well good people have been reporting flurries around town, pretty cool.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-13, 4:58 pm

Latest HRRR run shows 100% chance of weak sauce.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by skillsweather on 2012-02-13, 5:04 pm

That seems pretty accurate it might be over estimating the totals in most of the places there though. Still I hope we can get a good hard snow atleast even if it dont accumulate.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

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