May Severe Weather

Yes, welcome chaser2b!

Based on the WRF I expected to see more stuff firing at this point. Maybe it'll happen closer to dark.

Thanks guys. Hopefully we will receive some good rain to clean a little of this pollen out of the air .

I was hoping for a little more organized storms today.. Sadly that is was I told people on my weather page. Now I have to revise it and say that my fear of severe weather has gone down quite a bit.. Well I guess everyone is wrong sometime.

Just got attacked by the first skeeters of the season here. Son of a ....

The pattern on some of the models is suggesting an increased number of severe threats in the long range. Be interesting to see how many events we can get.. now that summer looks to be coming to an end

I wanna keep the warmth but I want severe weather tooo.

Adam2014 wrote:I wanna keep the warmth but I want severe weather tooo.

Ditto Adam...Ditto

I hate getting the weather wrong like I did today. It is tearing me up lol.

Adam2014 wrote:I hate getting the weather wrong like I did today. It is tearing me up lol.

Every forecaster will get one wrong from time to time....keep on keeping on

Toot wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:I hate getting the weather wrong like I did today. It is tearing me up lol.

Every forecaster will get one wrong from time to time....keep on keeping on

I will I am just worried that people will lose faith in me... do you guys think I am doing a good job on there?

Lol stove!

Some storms trying to develop along the cold front in Arkansas... I need something to happen.

Toot wrote:The pattern on some of the models is suggesting an increased number of severe threats in the long range. Be interesting to see how many events we can get.. now that summer looks to be coming to an end

You got that right. I own a Lawn and Landscape business. I mowed a couple of yards today for the fourth time this year. The first time I mowed these same yards last year was the 2nd week of April.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:

Toot wrote:The pattern on some of the models is suggesting an increased number of severe threats in the long range. Be interesting to see how many events we can get.. now that summer looks to be coming to an end

You got that right. I own a Lawn and Landscape business. I mowed a couple of yards today for the fourth time this year. The first time I mowed these same yards last year was the 2nd week of April.

That really puts things in perspective.

Well Adam. Your forecast for Smyrna has worked out for tonight. Quite a little knocker here right now.

Well, the severe weather for yesterday around sure wimped out. Maybe we can get a little today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S....

...SERN U.S...

EARLY THIS MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN EWD MOVING UPPER
LOW ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER...EAST OF TUL. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
INTO AR THEN DIG SEWD TO A POSITION JUST SW OF MEM BY 18Z. LATEST
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
EVOLUTION WITH A POCKET OF COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES...ON THE ORDER OF
MINUS 18-20C...EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AR/NRN MS JUST NORTH OF WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL JET CORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS SFC
DEW POINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. IN
FACT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVER AR...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL INHIBITION IT WOULD SEEM
PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO SC.

LATEST THINKING IS NOTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE PERIOD JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER AR...ARCING SEWD
ACROSS MS. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE FORECAST
MID LEVEL JET CORE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
ROTATE. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT TO LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME
FORECAST PROFILES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG AN OLD
FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SC...NWWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO
MIDDLE TN. STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL EASILY ALLOW SFC
PARCELS TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY BETWEEN 18-21Z WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WEAK SWLY FLOW
THROUGH 4KM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/MOSIER.. 04/05/2012

They said this yesterday.. Althought I do think that storms will fire today since the ULL is much closer. I didn't mention any severe storms in my forecast because I just don't think they will be.. I mentioned that they could have some heavy rain. I think Hail would be the biggest problem today because of the cold pool.

Confirmed tornado south of Yazoo City, MS...

What a tease last night was. We was chillin on the porch watching and listening to our neighbors (long story) and it started thunderin good, you know that low, grumbly kind that sounds so badass and I thought, "Ah, yeah, it will be a good un", but we only had a couple of lightning strikes and a couple more growling thunders and that was it. So disappointing.

Maybe tonight will be better.

From MRX

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BY THIS EVENING AND TO THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES PLACE AND AIR MASS BECOMES
UNSTABLE WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

Adam2014 wrote:Confirmed tornado south of Yazoo City, MS...

R.I.P. Jerry. I'm sure he could have told a great story about it.

A buddy of mine just texted from Jackson MS, said there is an incredible storm hitting there right now.

Here are some pics he sent me:

Rotation in Alabama.