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White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

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White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Neals on 2013-11-20, 10:01 pm

I am wondering if we will have any snow for Thanksgiving. I don't know much about forecasting weather other than watching patterns that other people point out to me. I have notice that the Pacific Jet is bringing cold air to use from the Artic airmass over Canada and that the Gulf is bringing some moisture up during this time. This type of set up has a name I believe but I don't know what it is called. I hope we do because I love snow and cold weather. So have one on me. pals Hopefully it's ok to start a thread about this?


Last edited by Neals on 2013-11-26, 12:13 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Coach B on 2013-11-20, 10:14 pm

Saw this posted elsewhere

from the NWS Nashville Facebook page
US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
I'm sitting here on a slow weather night poring over the latest atmospheric models with sudden great interest. Tuesday night could be eventful. Both the GFS and European models bring a deep low pressure system across the Gulf Coast, which is THE classic winter weather scenario for Middle Tennessee. At this time, we have rain/snow in the forecast for Tuesday night, which is the coldest part of the forecast. The forecast thicknesses suggest we may be a little too warm for all snow. But the GFS model sounding for Nashville valid early Wednesday morning shows a warm nose overlying a near-surface sub-freezing layer, which would give us freezing rain. This is still several days away, and the models do change somewhat from day-to-day, so don't go betting any money on a white Thanksgiving just yet. I'm just letting everyone know what we're seeing at this time. ‪#‎tnwx‬ (MAR)

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-21, 7:59 am

While the GFS ensembles still look awesome for us to me here is thge latest euro snowfall graphic

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-21, 2:29 pm

Latest run of european model ups snow totals quite a bit from last run on the Thanksgiving nor'easter!


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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by snowdog on 2013-11-21, 2:55 pm

Toot wrote:Latest run of european model ups snow totals quite a bit from last run on the Thanksgiving nor'easter!
The weather models are getting better. They now inherently know the screw zone that exists along the Memphis to Nashville corridor.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-22, 1:33 am

GFS is getting closer to the Euro, looks like the ole Valley screw zone on the clown map from the 00z run.


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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by skillsweather on 2013-11-22, 6:38 am

If I get a dusting out of this I will be extremely happy. I mean thats a lot for us to get this early compared to the last 2 winters total snowfall. We are not even in December and even then usually January is the colder month so long as we can keep whatever tapped for the precip this winter might will work out! cold

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-22, 8:21 am

This is looking a lot like last years maps over again. One of those where ever you live maps. On a Mountain, live more toward NE Tenn. Just like last year. Is it going to be this way, this winter?. We will just have to wait and see....
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-22, 8:29 am

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-22, 9:18 am

John1122 wrote:looks like the ole Valley screw zone
LOL..as usual!

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-22, 11:06 am

they may be many of these type of days this coming winter. But we will see,
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 12:58 am

For your enjoyment 12zEuro graphics posted in the members only section

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 11:08 am

This is only for tuesday as the HPC hasnt came out with graphics for Wednesdsay yet

Probability of snowfall greater than one inch from the HPC

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 11:26 am

The GFS (American model) continues to struggle in handling the SW energy as it comes to wildly different outcomes each run. However its ensembles tend to agree more with the european model. Here is the latest from the GFS (American model) on snow threat!

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-11-23, 1:12 pm

The Nam is close to what I think will happen. You are right! The gfs is to slow bringing out the energy from the sw. We will see. Very Happy 

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 1:45 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:The Nam is close to what I think will happen.   Very Happy 
Boy..I hope so..at hr 84 its fixing to take on neg tilt and rock mid to east TN with deformation band snow which means thunder would be possible too pals 

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 2:55 pm

Latest euro snowfall graphic posted in members only section.

If you have some requests I will gladly post more/different paramaters later. Just speak up

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 3:18 pm

Here is an animated gif I made of latest (12z)european model at 500mb showing the classic phasing of northern and southern stream energy that usually results in significant east coast snowstorms


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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-23, 3:46 pm

JKL/MRX are once again at odds on how this plays out.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-11-23, 3:58 pm

18z Nam still looks good to me!

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by skillsweather on 2013-11-23, 4:24 pm

Does it look like Nashville will see anything from recent models? Like even a dusting or what?

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-11-23, 5:04 pm

skillsweather wrote:Does it look like Nashville will see anything from recent models? Like even a dusting or what?
The euro gives around .5 to 1inch
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-11-23, 5:26 pm

The euro and Canadian model are consistent. The Canadian puts down a little more snow for north of I-40 1-3 inch range. I like the Nam! The new 18z gfs looks retarded also shows now that it will snow in east tn thanksgiving day? Going to be interesting:wk: wacko 

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-11-23, 5:52 pm

The energy for this storm is now ashore. In Cali so the models later tonight and in the morning will have a better sample. The problem is going to be how far north the gulf low forms. There will be a sharp cutoff with precip so if it is like the gfs says middle tn gets nothing. Wait and see! sneaky 

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-23, 6:20 pm

The more I look at this the more I like it but the NAO is not real deeply neg so im trying to limit my expectations. The GFS is totally by itself but ive seen it score some upsets before so I wouldnt count it out just yet! If the Euro is correct then it will come down to the timing of the phase as to who gets the best comma head snow

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

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