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White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-26, 9:04 am

IceMan23 wrote:My thinking has still not gone up from last night. I still see only about a half an inch, at most, in the Central valley, with a possible dusting in SE tn. NE TN will probably get around 2 inches.
Lol Good morning Tom

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by VFL on 2013-11-26, 9:48 am

This setup seems similar to last years storm. JMO
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 11:35 am

Jed33 wrote:
IceMan23 wrote:My thinking has still not gone up from last night. I still see only about a half an inch, at most, in the Central valley, with a possible dusting in SE tn. NE TN will probably get around 2 inches.
Lol Good morning Tom
LOL

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by etnwx on 2013-11-26, 11:42 am

Well, it's rained 1.39" so far, and my temp. is at 37.7. I don't believe we'll reach the 40's as predicted by MRX. Will this improve our snow chances and/or increase the amount of snow we get? I'm thinking yes because the transition over to snow will probably come sooner. What do you all think?

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-26, 12:16 pm

So far 3.04 inches of rain IMBY with 37 degrees.
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by joereb1 on 2013-11-26, 1:12 pm

So the thinking is still around 2 or 3" near North Knox County in Corryton?rock on

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Pman1618 on 2013-11-26, 1:24 pm

Alright now looking at the radar the storms have seemed to disapate. So is there supposed to be a line of rain reform during the next few hours or something?

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by etnwx on 2013-11-26, 2:15 pm

1.66" rain and I have broken 40. Temp is 40.3. Hopefully it won't go up much more.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-26, 3:06 pm

From JKL's afternoon update.

ONE CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE WIND FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE WIND CHILLS TO DIP DOWN PRETTY LOW. wrote:

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by VFL on 2013-11-26, 3:26 pm

I feel like MRX is starting to down play this a bit. Maybe it's just me.
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-26, 3:32 pm

They actually expanded the WWA. The NAM and GFS both lowered snow totals on the clown maps, but JKL said there wasn't a major difference. MRX still says 1-2 for valley areas. That's basically been their call since yesterday.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-26, 3:38 pm

Also, if you do well with upslope, expect to do a bit better tomorrow in the wake of the system snow that will fall from say, 12am til 10 am.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by etnwx on 2013-11-26, 3:39 pm

MRX...

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FROM AROUND 2 OR 3 AM EST TO AROUND 10 AM
EST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN THE GREAT VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY
AREA SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES MAINLY ON THE
GRASS. FARTHER SOUTH AROUND CHATTANOOGA ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN (IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING) COULD
SEE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. ADDING DISCOMFORT TO THE LATE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL BE A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 5:11 pm

Latest hi res models backed off a bit on the snow totals but still expecting a decent event I-40 north from the plateau east! Im in nowcasting mode now and have my awips program open and running!

Here is the current pressure gradient and surface low with depth


Current surface temp gradient with obs


Northern stream SW approaching at 500mb


Southern stream SW approaching at 500mb

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by IceMan23 on 2013-11-26, 5:15 pm

Aha! Others are coming around to my idea of half an inch of snow for the Central Valley areas, I see.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 5:17 pm

IceMan23 wrote:Aha! Others are coming around to my idea of half an inch of snow for the Central Valley areas, I see.
Who has?

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by snowman72 on 2013-11-26, 5:24 pm

Iceman must be Tom because he os mr.negative.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Pman1618 on 2013-11-26, 5:40 pm

Ok. So is the snow supposed to come up from the south because right now there is absolutely nothing on the radar popping up that shows when the snow will start to form?

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 5:42 pm

Yes from the south

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 6:07 pm

MRX updated accumulation graphic

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 6:49 pm

Some sweet graphics from the HI res Rapid refresh model are posted in the members only section

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Toot on 2013-11-26, 7:28 pm

Lol..the trickery of forecasting winter wx in the state of TN

*****EVENT CANCELLED*****
OHX wrote: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 610 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 ...FIRST POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... .A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING SNOW TO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. TNZ009-029-030-063-064-077>080-270115-/O.CAN.KOHX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-131127T1200Z/MACON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-CANNON-DE KALB-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE... WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE... ALTAMONT...SPENCER 610 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-26, 9:28 pm

Precip is filling back in on radar around here and expanding in MS and AL as it looks like the phasing is starting to occur. Could be wrong though, correct me if I am Toot or someone. Looks pretty healthy coming up from MS right now

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by etnwx on 2013-11-26, 9:49 pm

Getting some brisk winds at times from the NW and NNW. 37.9 degrees and falling slowly. Drizzle. 1.88" so far today.

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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

Post by memoriesof85&93 on 2013-11-26, 9:51 pm

Is this storm track considered a Millar A?
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Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

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