Re: White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter)

by **Jed33** 2013-11-26, 9:04 am

IceMan23 wrote:My thinking has still not gone up from last night. I still see only about a half an inch, at most, in the Central valley, with a possible dusting in SE tn. NE TN will probably get around 2 inches.

Lol Good morning Tom

by **VFL** 2013-11-26, 9:48 am

This setup seems similar to last years storm. JMO

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 11:35 am

Jed33 wrote:
IceMan23 wrote:My thinking has still not gone up from last night. I still see only about a half an inch, at most, in the Central valley, with a possible dusting in SE tn. NE TN will probably get around 2 inches.
Lol Good morning Tom

LOL

by **etnwx** 2013-11-26, 11:42 am

Well, it's rained 1.39" so far, and my temp. is at 37.7. I don't believe we'll reach the 40's as predicted by MRX. Will this improve our snow chances and/or increase the amount of snow we get? I'm thinking yes because the transition over to snow will probably come sooner. What do you all think?

by **windstorm** 2013-11-26, 12:16 pm

So far 3.04 inches of rain IMBY with 37 degrees.

by **joereb1** 2013-11-26, 1:12 pm

So the thinking is still around 2 or 3" near North Knox County in Corryton? rock on

by **Pman1618** 2013-11-26, 1:24 pm

Alright now looking at the radar the storms have seemed to disapate. So is there supposed to be a line of rain reform during the next few hours or something?

by **etnwx** 2013-11-26, 2:15 pm

1.66" rain and I have broken 40. Temp is 40.3. Hopefully it won't go up much more.

by **John1122** 2013-11-26, 3:06 pm

From JKL's afternoon update.

ONE CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE WIND FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE WIND CHILLS TO DIP DOWN PRETTY LOW. wrote:

by **VFL** 2013-11-26, 3:26 pm

I feel like MRX is starting to down play this a bit. Maybe it's just me.

by **John1122** 2013-11-26, 3:32 pm

They actually expanded the WWA. The NAM and GFS both lowered snow totals on the clown maps, but JKL said there wasn't a major difference. MRX still says 1-2 for valley areas. That's basically been their call since yesterday.

by **John1122** 2013-11-26, 3:38 pm

Also, if you do well with upslope, expect to do a bit better tomorrow in the wake of the system snow that will fall from say, 12am til 10 am.

by **etnwx** 2013-11-26, 3:39 pm

MRX...

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FROM AROUND 2 OR 3 AM EST TO AROUND 10 AM
EST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN THE GREAT VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY
AREA SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES MAINLY ON THE
GRASS. FARTHER SOUTH AROUND CHATTANOOGA ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN (IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING) COULD
SEE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. ADDING DISCOMFORT TO THE LATE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL BE A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND.

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 5:11 pm

Latest hi res models backed off a bit on the snow totals but still expecting a decent event I-40 north from the plateau east! Im in nowcasting mode now and have my awips program open and running!

Here is the current pressure gradient and surface low with depth
White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 2yzjtkn

White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 2yzjtkn

Current surface temp gradient with obs
White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 1zb4ah1

Northern stream SW approaching at 500mb
White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 2n8zz34

Southern stream SW approaching at 500mb
White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 21976g8

by **IceMan23** 2013-11-26, 5:15 pm

Aha! Others are coming around to my idea of half an inch of snow for the Central Valley areas, I see.

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 5:17 pm

IceMan23 wrote:Aha! Others are coming around to my idea of half an inch of snow for the Central Valley areas, I see.

Who has?

by **snowman72** 2013-11-26, 5:24 pm

Iceman must be Tom because he os mr.negative.

by **Pman1618** 2013-11-26, 5:40 pm

Ok. So is the snow supposed to come up from the south because right now there is absolutely nothing on the radar popping up that shows when the snow will start to form?

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 5:42 pm

Yes from the south
White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 Wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 6:07 pm

MRX updated accumulation graphic
White Thanksgiving? (Early season Nor'easter) - Page 6 30n97w7

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 6:49 pm

Some sweet graphics from the HI res Rapid refresh model are posted in the members only section

by **Toot** 2013-11-26, 7:28 pm

Lol..the trickery of forecasting winter wx in the state of TN

*****EVENT CANCELLED*****

OHX wrote: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 610 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 ...FIRST POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... .A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING SNOW TO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. TNZ009-029-030-063-064-077>080-270115-/O.CAN.KOHX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-131127T1200Z/MACON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-CANNON-DE KALB-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE... WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE... ALTAMONT...SPENCER 610 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

by **Jed33** 2013-11-26, 9:28 pm

Precip is filling back in on radar around here and expanding in MS and AL as it looks like the phasing is starting to occur. Could be wrong though, correct me if I am Toot or someone. Looks pretty healthy coming up from MS right now

by **etnwx** 2013-11-26, 9:49 pm

Getting some brisk winds at times from the NW and NNW. 37.9 degrees and falling slowly. Drizzle. 1.88" so far today.

by **memoriesof85&93** 2013-11-26, 9:51 pm

Is this storm track considered a Millar A?

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