Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Jed33 wrote:I'd glady take my 1-2 inches here and cash out. I hope we just see snow out of it no matter how much. Just can't be greedy in this winter. Or any other for that matter. After all, this is still the south.

I think thats like 2-4 on bot the euro and canadian posted above for Mtown..if my guesswork geography is up to par..lol

Oh ok I'm not the greatest on my scales and maps. How was the 12z euro? I heard it was north like the GFS?

It was more north..but it comes back in forth each run. To be honest ive been using the cmc to forecast more accurate this winter

That's cool. I would have thought the Canadian would have had more snow based on the track. Also, I know it's been said on other forums today, but its true, the GFS track is just crazy jumps from The MS/AL line to SW VA in 6hrs, the slides east then back south. Ive never seen a system do that. NCEP give us back our old GFS please.

Just in from work.... Looking, I know the euro went north... It will come back south I'm sure.... The trend is back and forth, but the outcome for any decent accums will be i40 north..... Not saying the whole state gets no snow,but not as much... Wpc has for sun there prob for 4inch or more ( mod-high) in extreme n ky much of Indiana and Illinois... I  can see it shifting further south with low.. I think what the GFS is showing on the latest run may be in the right spot In Virginia, but the path too there I dont think is though the smokies... We will see later tonight or in the morning...

Well my area is suppose to get snow tonight and it said 1-3 inches in the mountains. Just saying.2015-01-29

Media is terrible at snow forecasting. I didn't get but a flake or two this morning.....

It's not so much them, as it is the forecast models they are using. The models apparently can't handle the energy that is floating around our globe. It's not just here, they forecast for the entire planet. I figured we were in trouble yesterday, when the band of rain mixed with sleet came through yesterday morning. That wasn't on any of the models. Then last evening, when rain was supposed to be happening-nothing was popping on radar. Finally, around 10 precip started to build up, but it never really was as organized, and the push of cold air was not strong enough. If the models can't even initialize the current weather correctly, then you should know they can't get the future right either. It's laughable really. I think we could almost forecast better by using radar, water vapor, and looking at the surface features. By that I mean, have to check actually do some work to forecast and not just look at the models. This won't allow you to forecast more than about 1-2 days out, but at least you will be more accurate than the models.

Agreed Jed...look whats showing up now on the CMC GFS was close NVGEM has it too thursday feb 5th..classic track for east TN to get burried

Yep the track is right, and the Euro is suppressed. It's right where we need it right now, given the fact that all systems this year pull North and West due to the high pressure systems being modeled too strong at first. I like the potential here. I still haven't given up on backside snow for Monday AM either. GFS still looks ok for backside flakes even with the low so far north. I guess this system is a little different than usual because there is a low riding up the cold front?

This is also a good track for my area in Chattanooga. Even if it shows rain. Many big snows we have got with a track like that. Always have to be careful that a warm nose of air don't push in at about 5,000 ft in my area. It works better if the cold air is already in place. And the cold air is not suppressing the low farther south. Just 50 miles in a direction will make a big difference. Right now or this morning they were saying a chance for R/S Sunday night. Last year it was snowing here on Feb 12th in the morning at 34 degrees and had an inch of snow on the ground. Change to rain/sleet from about 11 to 4 pm because of a warm push of air coming into SE Tenn. This warm air went up to around Athens, TN. After 4 it change to snow and we got another 6 inches of snow.

The GFS just trended much colder and wetter..this is the one folks!! Yall know what happens when I post pics like these!!

Toot wrote:The GFS just trended much colder and wetter..this is the one folks!! Yall know what happens when I post pics like these!!

HaHa...i suppose this means RAIN!!

realdeal2414 wrote:

HaHa...i suppose this means RAIN!!

Nopey

The 6th looks pretty good. But do we expect anything from tomorrow nights storm?

If that chihuahua falls off that big dog it will get eaten!

If that the low that is going to bring snow it is going a bit south of what would be the normal track and would have chance to miss us unless another piece of energy is going to meet up with it.

windstorm wrote:If that the low that is going to bring snow it is going a bit south of what would be the normal track and would have chance to miss us unless another piece of energy is going to meet up with it.

Geez, that's the low that's in areal good place for us in Feb of an El Niño. Of course their are some things in play but dang. How much better do you really expect at this point? Come on Man. Think half full.

Am hoping. Like to see the track more along the SE GA/Fla panhandle. With cold air in place already.

When I left the Del Rio this morning the snow was coming down hard and fast..lol I would imagine the ground is white by now too bad I had to come down to the lower elevations to work

SE KY is getting hammered with upslope!!!

I took this yesterday afternoon at my house in Del Rio..it snowed about all day... mostly light stuff but ended up with about 1.5 inches from the upslope. It finally stopped spitting snow last night about 11pm..lol

Very nice Toot! I was working on English Mtn yesterday-looked almost identical to that picture. What I was really surprised at was that the low elevations east of newport, like Cosby had just about as much. I'm not that familiar with upslope bc I still haven't lived here that long, but is that common around there even in the low elevations like that?

Edit: I should clarify by low elevation in Cosby, I mean down by the river right off the interstate and the further I went down 321 in the valley, the more it got. I know it's at the base of the mountains, so the area is probably going to get more precip, but I just didn't think it would snow there like just up on the mountains

When u head towards cosby from Newport u do nothing but gain elevation even down by the river on the interstate its still around 1700ft I think. U get up above 1600ft and upslope snow is very common in Sevier and Cocke counties. The mountains generate Orographic lift...as the air mass gains altitude/elevation it quickly cools down adiabatically which raises relative humidity and creates clouds and precipitation.

Ah great explanation. I wish it would do that more often here in hamblen co. but I know it never would. Even if it did, I'd have a tough time anyway bc my house is not a western facing slope. I face east. I'm thinking I may actually do better with gulf generated lows than the west facing slopes though, bc last year in the big dog event in Feb. I actually had a little more on my side of the ridge than the other side. That storm was wrapping in moisture from the Atlantic and I live on the highest ridge between me and the apps. So my ridge takes the moisture first when it's forced back over the mountains. I don't know, may just be rambling here. May not be what really happens. Any thoughts?

I don't know how much stock people believe in Joe B. But watching his video this morning, he said hold on winter is coming to the SE. Seem to think we will see more Gulf Lows coming in the next 10 days and cold weather to go with it. Just saying. So maybe we will have a chance of something. Seems to think winter weather will go well into March. You can see his video and here what he says on Weather Bell.com.. Or just weather bell. On Saturday's you can see his videos for free. Of course he been wrong before, just like everone else. If your never wrong, how do you learn.?? I hope you take a look.