Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 2:54 pm

It's winter cancel over AmericanWX. Knowledgeable posters, even Allan Huffman, are writing off the next month or more. I'm not saying they are wrong, but I'm just amazed at the shear confidence people are having in the models going out that far. Hell we can't even nail down the basic synoptic details of what is going to happen this weekend!

by **snowdog** 2011-12-19, 3:11 pm

From what I have read a lot of them are canceling till the 2nd half of January. The +AO is just not breaking down and until that happens it is going to be very hard to get any blocking. Our only hope is that the PNA stay neutral to positive which would probably keep us near normal temp wise and may allow us to sneak in a snow here or there.

What will suck is when the pattern breaks down and changes and we get a heavy -AO/NAO regime for spring. Talk about missed timing and a waste. Ugh.

by **snowman72** 2011-12-19, 3:12 pm

You mean that people are writing off winter and winter is not even started yet, I would call that brave and possibly stupid.

by **John1122** 2011-12-19, 3:28 pm

I don't see them calling off winter per say. Mostly just saying it's going to be warm for the next month. Though to be honest with you for some parts of the area where American is popular, they really need to make hay in January to have much of a winter.

I will say this, this winter has defied quite a few indicators and analogs to shape up the way it has shaped up to date. It may turn fearsome at some point in January and there are analog years where that happened. But unless by some miracle that post Christmas storm goes well for us we are probably looking at a rainy and fairly mild next few weeks.

Pretty much a complete 180 from the past two winters and similar to the winter of 2008/2009. Temps near normal most of the time and very little snowfall outside the mountains. Not quite the great torch of 2007-2008 at least.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-19, 3:30 pm

snowman72 wrote:You mean that people are writing off winter and winter is not even started yet, I would call that brave and possibly stupid.

Some of those guys are pretty smart over there. So they aren't stupid. They have their reasons and they are valid. Again they aren't canceling winter just delaying the onset of "winter weather" in this area for a while. Some of the weenies may be jumping ship, but who cares about them.

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-19, 3:33 pm

Winter started 19 days ago. lol But yea I really wouldn't call winter off yet.. I mean they probably know what there talking about but I doubt they can predict the next 2 months weather.. Remember everybody were in Tennessee it just takes 1 low meeting behind a cold front to make us all love this winter.. having a +ao or whatever only lowers that chance of it happening it dont stop us from getting snow.. Ofc we could not get snow but meh... Lets dont talk about. Smile

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-19, 3:35 pm

snowdog wrote:
snowman72 wrote:You mean that people are writing off winter and winter is not even started yet, I would call that brave and possibly stupid.

Some of those guys are pretty smart over there. So they aren't stupid. They have their reasons and they are valid. Again they aren't canceling winter just delaying the onset of "winter weather" in this area for a while. Some of the weenies may be jumping ship, but who cares about them.

Well delaying our short winter is not that good either especially when they are taking part of our best month off. It usually starts to warm back up in February so most snows we get then wont last nearly as long as it could in January

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 3:37 pm

Just to clarify, I have much respect for a number of posters over there, particularly Robert and Allan. I take what they say seriously and I realize they aren't truly saying winter cancel. But I guess I'm just surprised to see such confidence in the long range AO/NAO indices. I suppose there is a lag time for change in those though and even a significant shift from current obs could take a couple of weeks. It takes time to turn the barge around so to speak.

by **John1122** 2011-12-19, 3:42 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Just to clarify, I have much respect for a number of posters over there, particularly Robert and Allan. I take what they say seriously and I realize they aren't truly saying winter cancel. But I guess I'm just surprised to see such confidence in the long range AO/NAO indices. I suppose there is a lag time for change in those though and even a significant shift from current obs could take a couple of weeks. It takes time to turn the barge around so to speak.

I think they are just seeing the writing on the wall so to speak. The indices have been mostly positive for almost 4 months in a row now with no sign from any modelling of any kind of change for the better.

They were counting on the normal negative summer to negative winter process taking place. I guess this is one of those years that will defy that pattern barring some major changes coming very soon.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-19, 4:04 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Just to clarify, I have much respect for a number of posters over there, particularly Robert and Allan. I take what they say seriously and I realize they aren't truly saying winter cancel. But I guess I'm just surprised to see such confidence in the long range AO/NAO indices. I suppose there is a lag time for change in those though and even a significant shift from current obs could take a couple of weeks. It takes time to turn the barge around so to speak.

There is a good write-up over there on the main page about Decembers that feature a highly positive AO. There are tendencies for these type of set-ups (although the sample size is pretty small) and they are just playing the percentages on those tendencies if you were to roll forward the pattern from those Decembers and look at the analogs for the rest of winter.

Also a good thread on SSW events over there. A lot of good info in it from a lot of the good posters over there. Both the AO and SSW threads are must reads for winter weather geeks.

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-19, 4:16 pm

jmundie wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:
Too soon?

You know you've made it when you get gif love from stove

Jmundie! Nice to have you aboard man!!

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 5:53 pm

Meteorological winter has been pretty normal so far..it has not been a torch by any means...its been near normal to slightly above tempwise so far this December...Calendar winter has not even started yet and yeah that does have meaning...it's called winter solstice. With that said.... long periods of a tanking AO and a NAO block are not the normal December conditions here either...no matter how bad you may want to see those conditions...Wild swings in temps and patterns are more normal at this lattitude during the period of seasonal change from fall to winter.

Now I realize that people (including me) were expecting the neg NAO/AO to happen in December and it hasn't but people have been spoiled by the last two winters and somehow think that cold and snowy is the normal pattern in December...its not!! People seem to forget that this is the southeastern united states and most unelevated places around here only average one or two days of an inch or more of snowfall during winter. Just remember there has already been two snow events already in the south even though they might have not been in your backyard.

Anybody making such broad statements as "cancel winter weather in so and so month" is completely wacko..I dont care who they are or what forum they post on. Nobody can make such a broad statement like that with ANY accuracy. If they cancelled winter weather for the months of November and December they are already wrong for parts of the mid-south... as they have already had two winter events no matter how long it may have stayed on the ground.

When there is not much confidence in any guidance it's pretty hard to argue with January climatology (which would be our snowiest month) especially if your basing your argument on relatively new teleconnect indices in the long range. People seem to think its allright to trust forcasted teleconnections in the long range but not model graphics when neither is very accurate. So no thanks...I will stick with climatology at this point pffft

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-19, 6:13 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:First of all meteorological winter so far has not been a torch by any means...its been near normal to slightly above tempwise so far this December...second of all Calendar winter has not even started yet and yeah that does have meaning..it's called winter solstice. With that said.... long periods of a tanking AO and a NAO block are not the normal December conditions here either... no matter how bad you may want to see those conditions...Wild swings in temps and patterns are more normal at this lattitude during the period of seasonal change from fall to winter.

Now I realize that people were expecting the neg NAO/AO to happen in December and it hasn't but people have been spoiled by the last two winters and somehow think that cold and snowy is the normal pattern in December...its not!! People seem to forget that this is the southeastern united states and most unelevated places around here only average one or two days of an inch or more of snowfall during winter. Just remember there has already been two snow events already in the south even though they might have not been in your backyard.

Anybody making such broad statements as "cancel winter weather in so and so month" is completely wacko..I dont care who they are or what forum they post on. Nobody can make such a broad statement like that with ANY accuracy. If they cancelled winter for this month (December)...they are already wrong for parts of the mid-south as they have already had two winter events no matter how long it may have stayed on the ground.

When there is not much confidence in any guidance it's pretty hard to argue with January climatology (which would be our snowiest month) especially if your basing your argument on relatively new teleconnect indices in the long range. People seem to think its allright to trust forcasted teleconnection indices in the long range but not model graphics when neither is very accurate. So no thanks...I will stick with climatology at this point

bad as i hate to say... heck, it may take about a month to get things right for us... nao has been nearly spiking since fall... hopefully, by the last week of january we can get a big time epic blockbuster winter storm... good things happen to people who are patient... bad thing about that is, our windo of opportunity of getting a good storm may be narrow if thats the case... cause by mid february we will proably head towards a true torch... outside a late wiinter suprise like early march or so, last two weeks of january and first two weeks of february is going to be our best shot folks... if its going to happen, it better happen in that 4 week span.

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 6:25 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:bad as i hate to say... heck, it may take about a month to get things right for us

What exactly do you consider "right for us"? Lol...I dont know about you... but I am currently tracking what looks to be a decent winter storm for somebody in the southeast right now smartass

tennessee storm09 wrote:
hopefully, by the last week of january we can get a big time epic blockbuster winter storm

Historically speaking..odds are pretty good there will be a winter storm before then in Tennessee...but I dont know if it will be an "epic blockbuster" smoke

tennessee storm09 wrote:
cause by mid february we will proably head towards a true torch

Why do you think that Bruce?

tennessee storm09 wrote:
if its going to happen, it better happen in that 4 week span.

So you're saying that there will be no winter storms in Tennessee during Febuary? Climo and I will definately argue with you Bruce

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-19, 6:35 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:bad as i hate to say... heck, it may take about a month to get things right for us

What exactly do you consider "right for us"? Lol...I dont know about you... but I am currently tracking what looks to be a decent winter storm for somebody in the southeast right now

tennessee storm09 wrote:
hopefully, by the last week of january we can get a big time epic blockbuster winter storm
Historically speaking..odds are pretty good there will be a winter storm before then in Tennessee...but I dont know if it will be an "epic blockbuster"

tennessee storm09 wrote:
cause by mid february we will proably head towards a true torch
Why do you think that Bruce?

tennessee storm09 wrote:
if its going to happen, it better happen in that 4 week span.
So you're saying that there will be no winter storms in Tennessee during Febuary? Climo and I will definately argue with you Bruce

o no toot, i didnt say any in february... i do think in this nina pattern, though it may weaken as we go... by mid february we will start to warm.... i am saying our best shot of winter storms will be from january 15th. to february 15th., give or take a day or so... just saying thats our best shot, that 4 week period there toot . now alot of ninas you get a late surprise , like early march storm... but i dont like to count on them to much. slap

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 6:39 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
o no toot, i didnt say any in february... i do think in this nina pattern, though it may weaken as we go... by mid february we will start to warm.... i am saying our best shot of winter storms will be from january 15th. to february 15th., give or take a day or so... just saying thats our best shot, that 4 week period there toot . now alot of ninas you get a late surprise , like early march storm... but i dont like to count on them to much.

Lol you slapped me Laughing

Anyways...sorry for the misunderstanding and I agree that will probably be our most active period but this is hardly acting like a typical La Nina at this point.... we just had a cool and wet fall when La Nina says we should have been warm and dry...and do I have to mention that active El Nino like subtropical jetstream? slap

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 6:41 pm

Robert just replied to the winter cancel stuff on AmericanWX.

Some dude:

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

Robert:

Not me. The AO/NAO status will change at some point this winter, but even without it, you'd have to be nuts to assume that one of these strong cutoffs doesnt' perform for us. If we lost that pattern, I'd worry about not getting any snow, but fortunately its been around all Fall and most likely will continue atleast a few more weeks. Actually it was around beginning last Spring and only weakened over the Summer due to it , well being Summer. Its back with a vengance, as it usually is with Ninas, just not quite this active.
We continue stepping down and stepping down with the cold and flirts with Winter storms on the models. I think here's where folks are led astray-- the models won't show you a snowstorm verbatim, accurately in this pattern. Its too loaded with systems, but once again I point out whats going on. We've had 2 or 3 strong cutoffs go through the Tenn Valley and Upper South and Appalachians, there were a couple very strong , long lived ones in the Ohio Valley during the early Fall, we have one going on now (blizzard Ks/Ok), and we have several strong waves , one of which might cutoff, in the next 7 or 8 days. People are living and dying with model runs. That's not good forecasting. And it's no reason to write off a good Winter storm. The writing is on the wall and its crystal clear. A major upper low with cold, yes actual cold air will arrive this winter and work in perfect tandem with one of these cutoffs, and will drop a foot of snow in part of the South. Just because the models "look" otherwise for as far as they can see (which, lets be honest, isn't that far if you're shooting for accuracy), doesn't mean no snow. I guess I'm the opposite of 99% on this whole forum, and I actually see the threat of substantial snowfall in the Southeast as having been increased this year, versus a normal, runofthemill one. We have an inordinate number of systems to track. Most will drop rain, but with so many draws, we'll pull a winner eventually. Its' just shear numbers. So far they favor Tenn Valley but eventually the track shifts more south. As for cold, no sustained cold, or warm in this pattern. We may be averaging "above normal" though for a while.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-19, 6:41 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote: Lol you slapped me

sorry for the slap, toot... i meant to hit a smiley face lol!

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 6:46 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
sorry for the slap, toot... i meant to hit a smiley face

Yeah...I bet you did Razz

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-19, 6:52 pm

i just now really looked at the 18zgfs, its trying to build a ridge out in the west... flow looks to be coming in from the northern pacific... may be a blur... its even trying to thro us a bone in long range... but i will not hang my hat on it... i am just trying to find anything positive for us.

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-20, 8:51 am

GFS trying to sing Auld Lang Syne for New Years:

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 8 Graphicaspx-22

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 8 Graphicaspx2-3

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-20, 8:58 am

Do yourself a favor and go read met Phil882's post this morning on AmericanWX here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31055-se-mid-range-discussion/page__st__315

I'm not going to quote it because he has graphics to go along with it. Interesting read about possible good things setting up.

by **jmundie** 2011-12-20, 9:17 am

Stovepipe wrote:Do yourself a favor and go read met Phil882's post this morning on AmericanWX here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31055-se-mid-range-discussion/page__st__315

I'm not going to quote it because he has graphics to go along with it. Interesting read about possible good things setting up.

Saw his post this morning. If there's anything to be excited about, its that the models continue to want to break down ridging in the west, and they keep being wrong.. Honestly, I'll take my western ridge, and hope for some disruption in the arctic... if it can break off a piece and send it down that ridge, we'll be ok.

At some point - there will be a pattern change. And we won't know its coming until its right up on us. Which will keep me going back to the models every run until it happens. That's winter. gaah

by **snowdog** 2011-12-20, 9:29 am

Huffman is the eternal optimist. He did however change his winter forecast to above avg temps. So even the most optimistic are starting to come around.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-20, 12:29 pm

Hope everyone is ready for spring. After Xmas it looks like spring officially kicks off. To heck with Winter 2012. I think the Mayan calendar not only predicted the end of the world in 2012 but also the end of winter in North America in 2012. There is not one shred of evidence to hang your hat on right now if you are hoping for a turnaround. Fugly.

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