Fall WX Discussion 2013

jmundie wrote:There was one tornado in your "best" chance area. Eastern Kentucky, which you had in your best chance area, almost had no reported severe weather.

Meanwhile, there were beast mode tornados in your low to moderate area in nw Illinois.

mundie just tell him leave the severe stuff to me. LOL... still not quite buying the cold on the models long range just yet... lets give it few more runs see what happens

MOTHER OF GOD.... 18z gfs long range brings the whole damn artic down to us.. LOL

I don't know for sure whether or not this is the one that does it, but I expect at some point this winter, the motherload of arctic air will attempt to make inroads deep into the south, maybe on several occasions. There is just too much cold air build up in canada and there is just so much potential with the indicies/teleconnections, that I believe we will have some true arctic air to deal with this year. I dont know that it will last long, but I expect it to show up sometime. Guess we'll see.

Gulf low showing up on most individual ensemble models in about one week! Pretty interesting to see this setup in late November
 

The euro is now on board for the thanksgiving gulf low/Nor'easter!

I think there's a lot of potential for this system. Timing is not super optimal right now. If the s/w ejects from the southwest a little earlier, we'll have plenty of cold air lingering from the weekend front. If it ejects a little later (or if the second front comes in a bit sooner) we could have a big phaser pulling cold air in on the back side.

Nice to have something of interest leading into the holiday weekend.

Thanks for the WeatherBell graphic Toot!!

The 12z GFS ensembles are pretty sexy!!

London, England see it first snow flakes of the season.http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2013/640x674_11202232_uk-snow2.png

Eye Candy in Voo Doo Land. Bought to by the GFS.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/12/gfs_namer_300_1000_500_thick.gif

What is up with the wind today? My forecast was wind 5 to 10mph. For the last hr it is been from the sw at 15 to 20 with a couple of gust to 25! Setting at 53 high was only to be 55.