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Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-12, 10:54 pm

Here's the color bar in inches[img][/img]

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-13, 5:49 am

Better hope the euro and ukmet are right cause the gfs just keeps going south with the second wave. Hardly any wintry precip now with it. Another thing we could hope for is the front wave Sunday night into Mon. It looked better at 6z and gave most of the state 2-4in. Looks like the HP coming in behind the front wave is responsible for pushing it down so far. At this range its still unclear what will happen. However, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the euro has the hand normally in the 3-4 day range. It's usually in it's wheelhouse. The gfs has some nice features, but it's too inconsistent for my liking. Of note, there is another mega clipper behind this. It's track is most certainly modeled too far sw on the 6z gfs as it would be a clipper travelling through MS and AL. Don't believe ive ever seen a clipper that far sw. It may have happened, but it's really rare. In any case, here we are in late winter, and we are experiencing a mid winter pattern. Crazy huh?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-13, 6:00 am

Yeah!! Pretty crazy..... I think our only hope is going to be a stronger system for sun night - mon time window... But the models are now pretty progressive even with it. The stronger the first wave is will cause the second one further south and weaker, the weaker the first wave the stronger and further north for the second... It will prob will be inbetween the gfs and euro, so 2-4 seem poss as of now! STRONGER and SLOWER is what we need. But hey I'm not surprised by the trend..

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-13, 6:27 am

After looking at some things, I still think the models do not have a good handle on this storm yet.... So many factors involved, I look for a lot more moisture than what is modeled to be involved with it, we will see, after all it still over 70 hrs out! Off to work!!!!!!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-13, 6:52 am

What did the a EPS look like from 0z?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 7:39 am

Looks pretty good as far as the track of surface low



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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-13, 8:16 am

The GFS op doesn't make since to me. There should be a stripe of wintry precip at the north side, no matter how far it is suppressed, unless it goes to Cuba lol

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-13, 8:39 am

Code:
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.  MODELS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.  CURRENT RUN
OF THE NAM KEEPS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  THE GFS RUN HAS TRENDED TO A COLDER AIR MASS
BUT ALSO KEEPS THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  PRIOR RUNS BROUGHT WARMER AIR AND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A RAIN SNOW MIX.  HAVE TRENDED
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY PLACE CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
FOR DECENT SNOWFALL IS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE
3000 FEET.  THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW BUT EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD AIR AND AT LEAST ONE
MORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH FOR CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE OF SNOW.


Last edited by Toot on 2015-02-13, 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Straighten format up)
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 8:56 am

Jed33 wrote:The GFS op doesn't make since to me. There should be a stripe of wintry precip at the north side, no matter how far it is suppressed, unless it goes to Cuba lol


Its pretty much in disagreement with its own ensembles too..lol

6zGEFS MEAN total snowfall

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 9:58 am

12zNAM

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-13, 10:40 am

thanks for the update !! toot

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-13, 10:59 am

nice pals drool smoke bleh whistle Laughing bounce bom cheers brrrm!
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-13, 11:03 am

If it going to happen the NWS needs to get on the ball. They should know by Sunday anyway. Have a great weekend everyone . Happy Friday the 13th. JB is supporting something like that also.
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-13, 12:42 pm

The 12z GEFS Mean still looks good for Tennessee as well.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 12:56 pm

Math/Met wrote:The 12z GEFS Mean still looks good for Tennessee as well.

Sure does!!


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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 1:52 pm

12z Euro

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 2:16 pm

The outlier..the operational GFS did try and bring it back north today but mostly still a near miss except for extreme E.TN! The GFS also has second wave behind this one...lol


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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-13, 2:55 pm

That Eurowx.com map is using 14:1 ratios for KTYS to get 8.8 inches of snow. Considering the surface temperatures are modeled to be in the low 20’s and 925/850mb temps are expected to be around -6C, I’d say a 14:1 ratio seems reasonable with light winds in the lower levels.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-13, 4:03 pm

18z NAM precip.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-13, 5:59 pm

Lol...And the evening run of the GFS model weighs in on the situation. It even has a second wave that comes directly behind the early week event! Top is early week and bottom is after second wave rolls thru by late week




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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-13, 6:52 pm

Right or wrong, the GfS bounces around an aweful lot

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-13, 8:27 pm

Wow, toot. That is awesome. I really would like to see that verify. We would have one of the old school winter wonderlands.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-13, 8:49 pm

Wait a minute. That's the same picture isn't it?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-13, 9:00 pm

Here's the NAM snowfall total [img][/img] from weathtrap

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-13, 9:09 pm

Weatherbob, you have interesting weather maps. Glad to have you as part of the crew.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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