Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

by **weatherbob** 2015-02-12, 10:54 pm

Here's the color bar in inches[img]

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 Wunder10

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by **Jed33** 2015-02-13, 5:49 am

Better hope the euro and ukmet are right cause the gfs just keeps going south with the second wave. Hardly any wintry precip now with it. Another thing we could hope for is the front wave Sunday night into Mon. It looked better at 6z and gave most of the state 2-4in. Looks like the HP coming in behind the front wave is responsible for pushing it down so far. At this range its still unclear what will happen. However, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the euro has the hand normally in the 3-4 day range. It's usually in it's wheelhouse. The gfs has some nice features, but it's too inconsistent for my liking. Of note, there is another mega clipper behind this. It's track is most certainly modeled too far sw on the 6z gfs as it would be a clipper travelling through MS and AL. Don't believe ive ever seen a clipper that far sw. It may have happened, but it's really rare. In any case, here we are in late winter, and we are experiencing a mid winter pattern. Crazy huh?

by **Jscentraltn** 2015-02-13, 6:00 am

Yeah!! Pretty crazy..... I think our only hope is going to be a stronger system for sun night - mon time window... But the models are now pretty progressive even with it. The stronger the first wave is will cause the second one further south and weaker, the weaker the first wave the stronger and further north for the second... It will prob will be inbetween the gfs and euro, so 2-4 seem poss as of now! STRONGER and SLOWER is what we need. But hey I'm not surprised by the trend..

by **Jscentraltn** 2015-02-13, 6:27 am

After looking at some things, I still think the models do not have a good handle on this storm yet.... So many factors involved, I look for a lot more moisture than what is modeled to be involved with it, we will see, after all it still over 70 hrs out! Off to work!!!!!!

by **Jed33** 2015-02-13, 6:52 am

What did the a EPS look like from 0z?

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 7:39 am

Looks pretty good as far as the track of surface low

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_5

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6

by **Jed33** 2015-02-13, 8:16 am

The GFS op doesn't make since to me. There should be a stripe of wintry precip at the north side, no matter how far it is suppressed, unless it goes to Cuba lol

by **windstorm** 2015-02-13, 8:39 am

Code:: THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT RUN OF THE NAM KEEPS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE GFS RUN HAS TRENDED TO A COLDER AIR MASS BUT ALSO KEEPS THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PRIOR RUNS BROUGHT WARMER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A RAIN SNOW MIX. HAVE TRENDED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY PLACE CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE FOR DECENT SNOWFALL IS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD AIR AND AT LEAST ONE MORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH FOR CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW.

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 8:56 am

Jed33 wrote:The GFS op doesn't make since to me. There should be a stripe of wintry precip at the north side, no matter how far it is suppressed, unless it goes to Cuba lol

Its pretty much in disagreement with its own ensembles too..lol

6zGEFS MEAN total snowfall
Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 KmJbKnI

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 9:58 am

12zNAM

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 Namconus_asnow_seus_29

by **etnvolman** 2015-02-13, 10:40 am

thanks for the update !! toot

by **windstorm** 2015-02-13, 10:59 am

nice

by **windstorm** 2015-02-13, 11:03 am

If it going to happen the NWS needs to get on the ball. They should know by Sunday anyway. Have a great weekend everyone . Happy Friday the 13th. JB is supporting something like that also.

by **Math/Met** 2015-02-13, 12:42 pm

The 12z GEFS Mean still looks good for Tennessee as well.

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 12:56 pm

Math/Met wrote:The 12z GEFS Mean still looks good for Tennessee as well.

Sure does!!

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 33n9ef8

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 1:52 pm

12z Euro

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 10984284_777152122392542_4385518908447888307_n

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 2:16 pm

The outlier..the operational GFS did try and bring it back north today but mostly still a near miss except for extreme E.TN! The GFS also has second wave behind this one...lol

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 14sgwux

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 14sgwux

by **Math/Met** 2015-02-13, 2:55 pm

That Eurowx.com map is using 14:1 ratios for KTYS to get 8.8 inches of snow. Considering the surface temperatures are modeled to be in the low 20’s and 925/850mb temps are expected to be around -6C, I’d say a 14:1 ratio seems reasonable with light winds in the lower levels.

by **Math/Met** 2015-02-13, 4:03 pm

18z NAM precip.
Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 Nam_namer_084_precip_p36

by **Toot** 2015-02-13, 5:59 pm

Lol...And the evening run of the GFS model weighs in on the situation. It even has a second wave that comes directly behind the early week event! Top is early week and bottom is after second wave rolls thru by late week

Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th - Page 3 10250310_777259235715164_3868929158376932802_n